Raiders had no choice in Derek Carr signing
The Oakland Raiders had no options. They had to pay Derek Carr a ludicrous amount of money, or eventually lose their most important player.
Derek Carr is a wonderful player. Drafted in the second round of the 2013 NFL Draft, he has turned out to be an exceptional value, spearheading the turnaround of a once proud, then moribund, franchise.
The Raiders have reaped the rewards of Carr’s right arm, going from perennial doormat to a 12-4 team in only three seasons. While the 26-year-old quarterback isn’t the only man responsible for the renaissance on the East Bay, he checks in near or atop the list.
On Thursday, Oakland made it clear how much it values Carr, signing him to a record-setting extension of five years and $125 million, with $70 million guaranteed. With the stroke of a pen, Carr received $40 million upon signing. Not a bad day.
While Raiders supporters should be celebrating a contract that locks Carr up through his prime, there should also be a note of caution. Carr has been superb in many aspects, but he remains suspect in others. Media types both local and national are ready to anoint Carr, despite warning signs that the young star has ample growing to do before joining the NFL’s elite quarterbacks, or even the immediate class below them.
In his career, Carr averages 6.46 yards per attempt, even though he’s played with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree over the past two seasons. In those years, Carr ranked 26th and 18th in YPA, respectively. Last year, he finished directly behind Carson Palmer and Alex Smith in that category.
Carr has also never finished higher than 14th in completion rate, doing so last year at 63.8 percent. Oakland’s receivers did drop 29 passes at a rate of 4.9 percent, more than the average 19 drops per team. If we give Carr 10 more completions for the year, he bumps up to 65.5 percent, good enough for 10th. The Fresno State product also plays behind a terrific offensive line that surrendered 18 sacks, the fewest in the league.
The Raiders are a passing team with a swashbuckling style that would make the late Al Davis proud, often leading to the misconception that Carr is an aggressive thrower. He’s not. In 2016, Carr’s passes averaged 6.36 yards in the air, ranking 33rd among 35 qualified quarterbacks. The only signal-callers below him were Matthew Stafford and Brian Hoyer.
Against the best of the AFC West, Carr has also struggled. Over the past two years, Carr is a combined 2-5 versus the Broncos and Chiefs. Over that span, his average game against those teams is 21-of-36 (58.3 percent) for 198 yards with one touchdown and an interception.
For reference, Philip Rivers’ average game against Kansas City and Denver during that stretch is 21-of-37 for 229 yards with one touchdown and an interception. This despite a much worse supporting cast, especially in terms of protection and receivers.
Since the start of the 2015 season, the Raiders have played 12 eventual playoff teams. In those contests, they and Carr are 2-10. In both victories, the losing quarterback was Brock Osweiler. Against teams that ended their campaigns with a winning record over that stretch, Carr is 6-10.
To put that in context, Ryan Tannehill is 3-3 against eventual playoff teams during that time period, and has a 4-6 mark against winning clubs. Tannehill is universally considered a worse quarterback than Carr, although statistics suggest the two are comparable.
The 28-year-old in Miami has a pair of 4,000-yard seasons under his belt, while Carr is without one. Tannehill has played behind horrid lines and still has a better completion rate over both the past two seasons (64.0 percent) and his career (62.7) than Carr (62.3 and 60.9, respectively). Tannehill has also thrown for 7.00 yards per attempt over his career, while Carr sits at 6.46. The big advantage for Carr comes in TD:INT ratio, where he sits nearly 3:1 (81-31) against Tannehill’s less than 2-1 mark (106-66).
Oakland made the right decision to sign Carr, even at $25 million per year. He’s the epicenter of the Raiders. Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper are better players for their positions, but quarterbacks are kings in the NFL, both in importance and salary.
With Carr at the controls, Oakland has to continually surround him with ample help. He’s not the talent Andrew Luck or Ben Roethlisberger is, let alone Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady. Carr won’t reach the postseason on a middling roster. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it will become increasingly hard for the Raiders to do, as Mack and Cooper seek their own mega paydays in the coming years.
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This is a good day in Oakland. The Raiders have their quarterback and Carr has his deserved money. But now the honeymoon is over, and results need to come from a team with sky-high expectations.
Whether Carr can deliver them remains to be seen.