Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This is the Thursday, June 22nd EARLY edition. We are focused on the EARLY FanDuel slate only. We’re reviewing the top pitching play of the day, top pitcher fade, value pick, sneaky pick, and stacking options for your FanDuel lineups.
Thursday afternoon is a little more robust than Wednesday, with six games scheduled and twelve teams to dive through for your MLB FanDuel lineups. Unlikely last night’s Main late, and much like yesterday afternoon, we have many good pitching match-ups and some intriguing splits to review.
Again, because of the limited options, compared to the Main slate, we’ll see some pitcher ownership above 40% and others below 10%, making for some intriguing cash plays, but GGP becomes harder to tackle.
We have two games in each of the one o’clock, two o’lock, and three o’clock hours, making for a fun FanDuel afternoon. Here’s a look at the Early Slate games:
STL Carlos Martínez at PHI Aaron Nola (1:05pm EDT)
CHW Jose Quintana at MIN Nik Turley (1:10pm EDT)
TOR Marcus Stroman at TEX Martin Pérez (2:05pm EDT)
PIT Ivan Nova at MIL Chase Anderson (2:10pm EDT)
ARZ Zack Godley at COL Antonio Senzatela (3:10pm EDT)
HOU David Paulino at OAK Jesse Hahn (3:35pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve focused more on value versus the expensive ‘chalky’ play. But that’s mostly because we’ve been able to find better value at pitcher than the top salary guys. This afternoon appears to be an exception to that rule. It’s hard to ignore the dominance Carlos Martínez ($10,400) has had recently, especially against the Phillies, and the match up he has today in Philadelphia.
Over his last nine starts on the mound, Martinez had at least 40 MLB FanDuel points in eight of the nine starts. That’s incredible consistency. During that time, he’s averaged 7.56 strikeouts per game in just 7.2 innings. Carlos also has nine quality starts in his last ten outings. Even in Carlos’ sub-40 point game, he was able to pile up 31 points, including eight strikeouts. So we know Martinez is hot.
Now to the match up. Martinez best game so far this season was an 11 strikeout, four hit, one walk, quality start win against the Phillies in St. Louis, piling up 70 MLB FanDuel points. So how do the Phillies match up against RHP’s at home? They have a 77 wRC+, tied with the Giants for the worst in baseball. The Phillies also have a horrendous 29.2% strikeout rate in this scenario, also one of the worst in baseball.
It’s hard to expect a repeat of the 70 point outcome, but Carlos has an easy shot at 50+ points today, with at least 70 points as a ceiling.
Martinez Fade Option for MLB FanDuel Pitching
With the Pirates having a 120 wRC+, 6th best in baseball, when away from home against right-handed pitchers, and Ivan Nova ($8,500) facing a solid Chase Anderson ($9,200), I’m not targeting the Pirates or Brewers. The Brewers do have a bad 93 wRC+, 24th in baseball, and a high 29.1% strikeout rate, so Nova is worth a consideration, but we have a more attractive match-up this afternoon.
Marcus Stroman ($9,000) has pitched with a similar consistently solid level as Martinez. But Marcus is a rung lower than Carlos, because he’s not getting as many strikeouts. Stroman won five of his last eight starts, with six of his last eight scoring over 30 MLB FanDuel points. During that time, Stroman had a ceiling of 46 points and floor of 26 points, that’s a solid bet at pitcher.
This afternoon’s match up in Texas makes Stroman more attractive. Yes, the Rangers have demonstrated solid offense this season, but not as consistently as last year. When facing RHP’s at home, like Stroman, the Ranges have a 86 wRC+, 26th in baseball. They also have a 23.4% strikeout rate, suggesting Marcus could land around his recent six to nine strikeouts in this game.
Stroman has hovered at or around 50 MLB FanDuel points several times this year, and today’s match up will likely pull him at least above 40 points, with another shot at 50 this afternoon.
MLB FanDuel Pitching Value
Most MLB FanDuel players will fade the Coors Field arms this afternoon. So each arm’s salary is deflated and they’ll likely have low ownership. That makes Zack Godley ($6,500) an attractive option this afternoon.
Godley is having a solid year, even pitching in hitter-friendly Chase Field, Zack is having solid results. Zack has a 3.79 SIERA, third among the twelve options tonight and just behind Stroman. Godley has one of the higher K% rates in this afternoon’s slate, 22.6%. And Zack is giving up only 0.54 home runs per nine innings.
But they’re facing the Rockies right? Well, the Rockies have a disappointing 114 wRC+ at home against right-handed pitchers, only 14th in baseball. By comparison, the Diamondbacks are second in baseball with a 149 wRC+. The Rockies offense in Coors is still slugging some home runs against RHP’s, but not as often as they have in the past, or against LHP’s. For only $6.5K, Godley has a decent shot at 35-45 MLB FanDuel points this afternoon.
MLB FanDuel Sneaky Pick
Not sold on Godley and want a sneaky value pick? Consider Antonio Senzatela ($6,200). I admit, this is a very risky play. While the Diamondbacks are hitting against a RHP away from Chase, where their offense declines, it’s in Coors Field, nearly equal to Chase. So the DBacks ‘away’ stats against RHP’s are misleading today.
But while Senzatela has a rough 4.55 SIERA, 10th among the twelve starting pitchers today, he’s staying in games for six to eight innings in most games, and while giving up three to five runs per game, he’s still getting wins, with the Rockies offense keeping him in the game. Even if Antonio gives up a few bombs today, he could still get a quality start and win, making for a steal at $6.2K. But it’s risky!
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Minnesota Twins vs. Jose Quintana
While Quintana has historically be a great pitcher for the Chicago White Sox, he’s struggling this year. Jose currently has a 4.40 SIERA, 8th among the twelve pitchers today. Quintana will still get you K’s, a 22.6% rate, but has a high 1.37 WHIP and is giving up 1.32 home runs per nine innings.
With the right match up, Quintana is a good pitching play, but this isn’t it. The Twins have a surprisingly high 177 wRC+, 3rd in baseball, against LHP’s like Jose at home. Quintana could get a win in what is shaping up to be a slugfest, but he’s not a great play and stacking Twins should pay off.
Houston Astros vs. Jesse Hahn
Hahn hasn’t given up many home runs this season, but that’s were his good pitching statistics end. Hahn has a 4.50 SIERA, 9th among the twelve pitchers this afternoon. Jesse has a low 19.0% strikeout rate, and is walking around three per game. Against a solid lineup, Hahn is going to struggle.
So who is Hahn facing today? Only one of baseballs best offenses in the 2017 season, the Houston Astros. Against right-handed pitchers on the road, the Astros have a 126 wRC+, third in major league baseball. They have a low 17.8% K rate in this scenario, with an awesome .524 slugging percentage and .860 OPS. They’re going to be expensive, but stacking Astros with Twins should be an affordable way to build around our pitching picks.
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