Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This is the Saturday, June 24th edition. Today, we’re going to identify the top pitcher and stacking targets for the ‘Very Early, ‘Early Only’, and ‘Main’ MLB FanDuel slates. So, you should be covered all day.
With 15 games, and 30 pitchers to pick through for our Saturday, we have an overwhelming number of options to dig through. There are many great pitchers to consider. But as you look at each match up, we realize the great pitcher picks are limited.
The day is pretty evenly split between the Very Early, Early Only, and Main slated games for MLB FanDuel lineups. So we decided to find the top pitcher and stacking targets, giving you options for each slate. Here’s the list of games we’re focused on for each MLB FanDuel slot:
Very Early
TEX Austin Bibens-Dirkx at NYY Luis Cessa (1:05pm EDT)
TOR Marco Estrada at KC Jason Vargas (2:15pm EDT)
Early Only
CHC Jon Lester at MIA Justin Nicolino (4:10pm EDT)
BAL Dylan Bundy at TB Jacob Faria (4:10pm EDT)
Main
COL Tyler Chatwood at LAD Clayton Kershaw (10:10pm EDT)
PHI Ben Lively at ARZ Robbie Ray (10:10pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Very Early MLB FanDuel Slate
Top Pitching Play
Among the ‘Very Early’ MLB FanDuel slated pitching options, Marco Estrada ($8,100) is clearly the best option. Marco has a 3.79 SIERA, one of the best among all the pitchers today, with a 26.1% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate. The only concern about Estrada is home runs, and runs. Marco is giving up almost 1.5 home runs per nine innings, and has a high 4.98 ERA. But with the right match up, he’s going to be on the high-end of his 31 MLB FanDuel point average.
Estrada is facing the Royals in Kansas City. While the Royals have a decent 19.2% strikeout rate against RHP’s, like Marco, at home, they also have a 84 wRC+, 28th in major league baseball. So while they’re not striking out against righties at home much, their offensive production is terrible.
The Royals have a decent arm on the mound too, but the Blue Jays have done well against lefties away from Toronto. With this match up, and a 66 MLB FanDuel point ceiling from Estrada, $8.1K is a bargain value for Estrada today.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
New York Yankees vs. Austin Bibens-Dirkx
In 29.2 innings, Bibens-Dirkx has respectable stats for the Rangers. Austin is 2-0 with a solid 4.25 ERA, and low 0.99 WHIP. But Dirkx only has a 15% strikeout rate, and is giving up nearly two home runs per game. So Austin’s SIERA is 4.93, 10th among the 16 pitchers on the mound this afternoon.
Facing the Yankees with a high home run rate, is a great sign for the sluggers in New York. The Yankees have a 133 wRC+ against RHP’s in their home park. Stack the Yankees, if you can afford them.
Early Only MLB FanDuel Slate
Top Pitching Play
For the “Early Only” slate I wanted to pick Kluber. Corey has been on fire lately and on the surface I assumed the match up in Cleveland against the Twins was solid. But the Twins have a surprising 106 wRC+ against RHP’s away from home, 5th best in baseball. So Kluber is off the list!
The Orioles have Bundy on the mound. Dylan had a hot start, but cooled off lately and is struggling to pile up strikeouts now. Facing Bundy today is a hot Jacob Faria ($8,500). Jacob is averaging an impressive 48.7 MLB FanDuel points per game after three starts. Jacob is fanning more than one batter per inning, and has a low 0.90 WHIP. Faria hasn’t given up a home run yet and has a low 5.3% walk rate leading to a very good 3.20 SIERA.
Against right-handed pitchers away from Camden Yards, the Orioles have a low 87 wRC+, 20th in major league baseball. So while Faria should hit a wall against a solid hitting team soon, the Orioles aren’t the team. Jacob has been an incredible value so far, and FanDuel has yet to make him too expensive, so ride Faria again today for the Early Only slate.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Chicago Cubs vs. Justin Nicolino
Nicolino is giving up more than two home runs per game, has a very low 13.2% strike rate, and high 9.2% walk rate. You have to wonder how long the Marlins will let Nicolino start, at his current rate. But before he’s yanked from the starting pitcher spot, the Cubs get to feast on Justin.
Against LHP’s, like Nicolino, away from Wrigley, the Chicago Cubs have a 130 wRC+, just one below the league leading New York Mets. The Cubs have an incredible 12.9% walk rate in this scenario, .341 BABIP, and .879 OPS. The Cubbie bats are expensive, but worth paying up for if you find the right value pitcher, like Faria.
Early Only MLB FanDuel Slate
Top Pitching Play
I wanted to like Ray against the Phillies, but he’s walking nearly four per game in the past three games, and struggled against the Phillies in Philadelphia. Also, Robbie pitches better away from Chase. He may bounce back, but he’s risky and worth a fade today.
Unfortunately, after reviewing the pitching options for the Main slate, I realized it’s hard to fade an expensive Clayton Kershaw ($12,300). Kershaw is clearly one of baseball’s top pitchers. Clayton has a 3.12 SIERA, only behind McCullers among the starting pitchers today. Before you look at McCullers, his match up isn’t ideal, and he’s coming from the DL, so another fade.
While the Rockies slug the ball in Coors, against LHP’s away from Colorado, they’re struggling. The Rockies have a 90 wRC+ in this scenario, 19th in baseball. Also, Clayton faced the Rockies twice already this season, landing 37 MLB FanDuel points in Coors, and 55 points in Los Angeles. Look for hitting value and pay up for Kershaw tonight.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Ben Lively
Because it’s so incredibly hot outside in Arizona, they’ll have the roof closed all weekend against the Philadelphia Phillies. That is unfortunately for MLB FanDuel players, but having the roof open would be inhuman.
However, the DBacks are still slugging the ball against right-handed pitchers on home turf, roof open or closed, and this match up is great for the DBacks’ sluggers. Lively is walking almost as many as he’s striking out, a 9.8% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate. Ben also has a 5.79 SIERA, the worst among all starting pitchers today. They’ll b expensive again, but a DBacks stack is worth it if you can find some value hitting and pitching picks.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
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