30 teams in 30 days: Minnesota Timberwolves offseason preview
By Jeff Siegel
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ offseason began with a bang on Thursday, when they traded Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, and their seventh overall pick to Chicago for Jimmy Butler and the sixteenth selection. Butler has two years left on his contract for a total of $39.7 million (plus a player option for a third year, but there’s no chance he picks that up), an absolute bargain for one of the best ten to fifteen players in the league. Butler is a superstar on both ends of the floor, able to lock down almost any perimeter player in the league and an efficient scorer and creator on the other end.
His fit next to Andrew Wiggins is a little suspect due to both players needing the ball in their hands to be effective, but the defensive fit will do wonders for Wiggins, who has been miscast as a primary wing stopper in his first three seasons in Minnesota. Giving up Dunn and LaVine hurts their depth, but the trade is still a no-brainer for the Timberwolves, as Dunn showed nothing in his rookie year that would indicate that he’ll grow into a starting-level point guard and LaVine is recovering from a major knee injury and will need a new contract after the 2017-18 season.
With Butler in the fold, the Timberwolves biggest needs this summer are depth across the perimeter. They go into free agency over the cap, but have cap holds for wings Shabazz Muhammad, Brandon Rush, and Omri Casspi, all players they could look to bring back if they decide to stay over the cap. Muhammad is the best of the bunch and will be a restricted free agent — the Timberwolves might be able to wait out his market and retain him at a cheaper price than a normal rotation wing. Muhammad’s agent is Rich Paul at Klutch Sports, who is no stranger to long, drawn-out negotiations, so look for Paul and Muhammad to be patient if a strong offer sheet doesn’t arrive.
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The Brooklyn Nets have been tied to Muhammad in the past few months and still have openings on the wing going into free agency, so Muhammad may not wait long to start the clock on Minnesota’s match rights. Bringing back Muhammad would provide Minnesota with a fairly strong four-man wing rotation in Butler, Wiggins, Muhammad, and Nemanja Bjelica, though bringing in a strong defender to play a bench role with their full mid-level exception would behoove the Wolves.
Ricky Rubio is another moving part for Minnesota — he’s seemingly been on the trade block since the inception of the words “trade block”. Rubio is set to make $14.25 million next season and could be a trade target for a team looking for a cheaper option at point guard than the free agents on the market. In particular, the New York Knicks, despite drafting a point guard on Thursday, could use Rubio as a stopgap for the next two seasons as Frank Ntilikina develops into the role. He’d be a lot cheaper and on a shorter contract than top free agent point guards Jrue Holiday and George Hill, and while he doesn’t provide the same offensive firepower, he’s a tremendous defender.
Trading Rubio into another team’s cap space would open up that $14.25 million for the Timberwolves to use this season, at which point they might waive Jordan Hill’s non-guaranteed contract and renounce Muhammad and their other free agents to create as much as $32.2 million in space to bring in a big fish. Giving out a contract for $80 million over four years to an upgrade at point guard would leave them with $14.4 million to spread around to fill out depth on the perimeter. They would lose their $8.4 million mid-level exception and $3.3 million bi-annual exception in this case, but would open up a $4.3 million room exception in addition to the $14.4 million in cap space. They could even hold onto Muhammad’s cap hold and still have significant space to complete their roster.
The Timberwolves have many options in free agency and are now an extremely attractive destination after the Butler trade. They were already in the discussions for big-name free agents Paul Millsap and Blake Griffin to pair with up-and-coming superstar Karl-Anthony Towns and while Minnesota probably won’t go after one of those two because of the extra salary Butler makes, they have a much better team now and will be able to get meetings with veteran free agents.
Next: 30 teams in 30 days: New York Knicks offseason preview
The Butler trade was their big move, but they still have a few cards up their sleeves to play if the market breaks right for them in early July.