MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus June 26
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the MLB FanDuel Daily Pitching Focus column for Monday, June 26th. We are focusing our analysis on the Main MLB FanDuel slate only, for Monday night. We’ll review a top pitching play, contrarian play of the day, and stacking options for your FanDuel lineups.
After an action-packed weekend of baseball, several teams take the day off on Monday, with only eight games slated for today. That gives us 16 pitchers to review for the All Day slate, but only six of those games will fall into our Main slate bucket, narrowing the pitcher count down to only twelve.
We have several great pitching match ups to enjoy this evening, but as you look through the sabernomics and splits, you’ll realize some of the pitcher plays tonight could be traps. So we’ve cut out the traps and will focus on the best pitching and hitting options for your lineups. Here’s a look at the Main slate games, only, for tonight:
CHC Eddie Butler at WSH Gio González (7:05pm EDT)
TEX Cole Hamels at CLE Carlos Carrasco (7:10pm EDT)
MIN Jose Berríos at BOS Chris Sale (7:10pm EDT)
NYY Jordan Montgomery at CHW David Holmberg (8:10pm EDT)
COL German Márquez at SF Jeff Samardzija (10:08pm EDT)
LAA Ricky Nolasco at LAD Rich Hill (10:10pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
Chris Sale ($11,700) is by far the best pitcher on the mound this evening. Sale has a 2.61 SIERA, the best in baseball. Chris also has a tremendous 31.5% strikeout rate and low 4.1% walk rate. Sale is averaging over 50 MLB FanDuel points per game, a tremendous outcome so far this year. And the Twins have a very low 62 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers like Sale, when away from home.
However, there’s a rub. The Twins have a very good batter vs. pitcher (BvP) against Chris. While Sale’s K rate against the Twins is high, 33.9%, he’s also given up six home runs in 180 at-bats, a .278 batting average, .450 slugging average, and .764 OPS. Sano and Dozier specifically have a very good history against Sale. So, while Chris could have another solid game tonight, you’re paying $11.7K for a risky pitching pick.
With that in mind, and after reviewing the rest of the pitching slate, German Márquez ($7,000) looks like the best pitching option tonight. Marquez has an overall 4.49 SIERA and 20.7% strikeout rate, but when pitching away from Coors Field, German’s strikeout rate jumps to 24.8%.
The biggest attraction to Marquez is the match up against the Giants in San Francisco. The Giants have a terrible 72 wRC+ against RHP’s like German in San Francisco, the worst in baseball. Their strikeout rate is only 18.7%, but they have a low .624 OPS and .339 slugging percentage in this match up, each terrible and the worst in baseball. So, Marquez is set up well for a complete game, potential win, low WHIP, and with a 6+ strikeout result, he’s a steal at only $7K today.
Contrarian MLB FanDuel Pitching Play of the Day
While we like Marquez today, many MLB FanDuel experts are likely going to ride German, and his ownership should climb throughout the day. We also already noted Sale’s dominance, but his risk as well. Also on the mound in Boston today, is Minnesota Twins young stud starting pitcher Jose Berríos ($9,600).
In 54 innings this season, Berrios has already grabbed seven wins and has six quality starts in eight appearances. Jose is averaging just under seven strikeouts per game, has a high 25.2% K rate, and decent 7.1% walk rate. With a low 3.88 SIERA, Berrios is one of the best pitchers on the mound today. The big shadow cast over Jose tonight, is that he’s facing Sale. So I expect most MLB FanDuel players to fade Berrios, creating a great GPP opportunity for us.
While Jose is pitching very well this year, another reason I like this contrarian play is the Red Sox RHP at home splits. In this scenario, the Red Sox have a 92 wRC+, just 23rd in baseball. So they’re not hitting righties well in Fenway. The Red Sox strikeout rate of 17.1% isn’t bad, but they’re slugging percentage of only .411 is unimpressive and they’re facing a low HR/9 pitcher tonight. This solid contrarian pick should fly under the radar tonight.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Washington Nationals vs. Eddie Butler
Whenever Butler is on the mound, I take a look at the hitting lineup he’s facing. While Butler has a solid 3-2 recrod and 4.19 ERA, he only has 25 strikeouts in over 38 games, and an impressive 1.34 WHIP. Jumping to advanced metrics, Eddie has a terrible 5.77 SIERA, one of the worst on the mound tonight, low 15.1% K rate, and high 12.7% walk rate.
Factoring the bad patching with the Nationals RHP at home splits, and we see a big opportunity here. The Nats are 3rd in baseball with a 124 wRC+ in this scenario, only behind the Yankees and Dodgers now. Their strikeout rate is below 20%, with a .516 slugging percentage and .880 OPS, one of the best in baseball against righties in Nats park.
They’ll be expensive, but if Sale is one of the top pitching picks of the day, you should find a cheaper pitcher like Marquez and stack the Nats for winning linups, as it’s unlikely most will be able to afford the Nats tonight.
Chicago White Sox vs. Jordan Montgomery
Yes, Montgomery is having a solid season for the Yankees. But while Jordan has a decent 22.7% strikeout rate, he’s giving up over one home run per game, has a shaky 4.32 SIERA, and high .282 BABIP. Montgomery has also given up six earned runs in his last eleven innings pitched. So I’m fading Jordan tonight.
Another reason to hate Montgomery tonight and love the White Sox hitting is their history this season against left-handed pitchers at Guaranteed Rate Field (who approved of that name?). In this scenario, the White Sox have a 136 wRC+, by far the best in baseball. Their K rate is only 18.1%, walk rate climbs to 10.2%, they have a great .878 OPS, and decent .480 slugging percentage.
The White Sox are also incredibly affordable. With a value pitching pick and White Sox stack, you’ll easily be able to afford the expensive Nats bats tonight.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!