MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus June 27
By Matt Rogers
Welcome back for the Tuesday, June 27th edition of the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. Once again we’ll identify a top pitching play, but also review the best mid-salary range option, value play of the day, and stacking options for your hitter spots to fill up your MLB FanDuel lineups.
We’re back to a full slate of 15 MLB games today. Every game falls into the Main MLB FanDuel slate, giving us 30 pitchers to pick through. Tonight’s slate is tremendous, with ten pitchers falling below a 4.00 SIERA, lots of strikeout options, and several pitchers to target for hitting as well.
As we dive through the sabermetrics and splits, some of the top pitching options remain obvious, while others could be sneaky, and great for GGP play. With so many pitchers to choose from, we have four we like in the Pitcher slot, and at least three to stack against. We’ll narrow our search down to seven games we’re targeting for tonight’s Main slate:
CHC Jake Arrieta at WSH Max Scherzer (7:05pm EDT)
BAL Kevin Gausman at TOR Joe Biagini (7:07pm EDT)
MIL Junior Guerra at CIN Tim Adleman (7:10pm EDT)
MIN Hector Santiago at BOS Drew Pomeranz (7:10pm EDT)
OAK Sean Manaea at HOU Mike Fiers (8:10pm EDT)
PHI Aaron Nola at SEA James Paxton (10:10pm EDT)
COL Jeff Hoffman at SF Matt Cain (10:15pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
Yesterday we tried to avoid paying up for Sale, although admitted Chris would likely still have a solid game, and he did. Sale dropped 53 MLB FanDuel points last night, just a tad over his average, with a $11.6K salary. I also noticed while Chris was expensive, it was still possible to get some solid players on your roster, including Judge, giving you a decent chance at cash and GPP plays.
With that in mind, and after carefully reviewing the match up Max Scherzer ($12,000) and the Nationals have today, we have to land on Max as the top option. There are several great options today including Martinez, Arrieta, and Severino, but Scherzer’s stats create clear light between he and the rest of the pack.
Max currently has a 2.74 SIERA, well above Severino at 2nd among all pitchers starting on the mound tonight, with 3.40. Max is also offering a ridiculous 35.3% strikeout rate and low 5.8% walk rate. To additionally pile on, Scherzer has a very low 0.81 WHIP and .166 batting average against him. The only risk with Max, is one home run per nine inning average.
Last year, we’d be worried about Scherzer facing the Cubs, but Chicago has stumbled since the start of the season and have yet to recover. Against RHP’s like Max away from Wrigley, the Cubs have a low 78 wRC+, tied with the Padres for 28th in baseball. The Cubs K% is over 22% in this scenario, and they have a low .376 slugging percentage, muting the long-ball concern.
This is a slam dunk pick for tonight, as should land well above his 52 MLB FanDuel point average tonight.
MLB FanDuel Mid-Salary Range Top Pick
The only problem with the Max play tonight is the $12K salary, he’s very expensive. The good news about tonight’s slate is that if you’re planning to stack some expensive bats, there are still plenty of other solid options.
My favorite mid-salary range pick tonight is Seattle Mariners’ top hurler James Paxton ($8,500). Since returning from the DL in late May, Paxton has struggled with no quality starts and a few surprising sub-ten MLB FanDuel point games. Those results are so surprising because James was dominate at the start of the season and into his injury hiatus.
Now averaging around 34 MLB FanDuel points per game, the lefty had a decent eight strikeout game against the Tigers six days ago, only giving up three runs. What Paxton needs is another confidence boost from a great match up, like the Tigers game. As the Philadelphia Phillies arrive in Seattle tonight, they could provide just that for James.
The Phillies have a terrible 65 wRC+ against LHP’s away from Citizen’s Bank Park, 27th in baseball. In this scenario, they also have a 20% strikeout rate, low .210 batting average, .279 OBP, and only a .360 slugging percentage. Also, the Phils have a 26% Hard Contact rate, the lowest in baseball in this scenario. So Paxton is set up for a great bounce-back game tonight, with a decent salary for affordability.
MLB FanDuel Pitching Value Pick
The Colorado Rockies 2014 first round draft pick, Jeff Hoffman ($7,400) is pitching very well away from Coors Field. While Hoffman averages 29.4 MLB FanDuel points-per-game for the season, Jeff is averaging over 50 MLB FanDuel points-per-game when pitching outside of Coors Field.
Among all the starting pitchers today, Jeff is third in SIERA with a 3.66, just above Martinez. Hoffman’s overall WHIP, including pitching in Coors, is an impressive 0.93. And tonight Hoffman is facing the worst team in baseball against RHP’s at home.
Most teams in baseball do well against righties at home, but the Giants have a 77 wRC+, 30th in baseball. The Giants batting average and on base percentage are each below .300, and their slugging percentage is only .349, also the worst in baseball. So we’re getting a hot pitcher away from Coors facing the worst team in baseball against RHP’s at home. Sign me up!
MLB FanDuel Pitching Sneaky Pick
Sean Manaea ($8,200) is ninth among all starting pitchers tonight with a 3.90 SIERA. Manaea also has a 26.6% strikeout rate, fifth most of all the SP’s tonight. Along with a low long-ball rate, .207 batting average against him, and solid 1.15 WHIP, Sean is an appealing option. The only problem is, he’s facing the best team in baseball, the Houston Astros.
However, the Astros haven’t performed well against Manaea in the past, especially this season, Sean has fanned the Astros 14 times in just eleven innings. He also only gave up four runs in those eleven innings, earned a quality start, and is averaging around 36 MLB FanDuel points against the Astros.
Houston hasn’t performed well against LHP at home, they drop to eleventh in baseball. And hardly anyone is brave enough to target the Astros with pitching, so this could be a sneaky good GPP value play tonight if Manaea continues to perform well against Houston.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kevin Gausman
The Blue Jays have a mediocre performance against RHP’s like Gausman in Toronto, but Kevin is a sub-mediocre pitcher. Gausman currently holds a 5.26 SIERA, 27th among the 30 pitchers starting tonight. Kevin has a horrendous 10.2% strikeout rate, and eye-popping 16% walk rate.
With a 1.88 WHIP after 80.2 innings, you have to wonder when the Orioles are going to finally send Kevin back to the minors. The Blue Jays won’t be too expensive tonight, and should go off on Gausman for the first four to five innings of the game, if he lasts that long.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Junior Guerra
Speaking of terrible SIERA, 5.79, and base strikeout, 13.6%, and walk ratios, 16.7%, Guerra is at the bottom of the barrel tonight in terms of pitching statistics. Junior has a solid half of a season last year, but continues to perform poorly for the Brewers.
The Reds are performing better than average against RHP’s at home, 104 wRC+, and should feast off of Guerra, as he piles batters onto the bases. The Reds will also likely be low-owned and are fairly cheap tonight. They’re another great stacking option with Scherzer.
Boston Red Sox vs. Hector Santiago
The Red Sox are one of the more obvious stacks tonight. Boston is eleventh in run value against LHP’s in Fenway, 100, and have a low 15.8% strikeout rate in this scenario. The Red Sox also have a solid .760 slugging average as they’re hitting the ball hard against lefties in Fenway, 33% hard rate.
Like Gausman, Santiago is striking batters out at a low 16.5% rate, and only has a slightly lower walk rate, 9.8%. Hector has a the third worst SIERA, 5.48, and a high 1.43 WHIP. Also, the Red Sox are surprisingly affordable, and are yet another team you can still stack with an expensive Scherzer.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!