Is the next home run king among us? Power rankings, trades, Hall of Fame players and more

Could Cody Bellinger, Bryce Harper, or some other MLB star be the next home run king? Plus power rankings, trades, Hall of Fame candidates and more.

Is the next home run king among us?

On June 3, Albert Pujols career home run No. 600. With 602 career home runs through Tuesday, Pujols ranks ninth on the all-time major league leaderboard, 160 behind Barry Bonds and 148 ahead of Miguel Cabrera, who ranks second on the active list.

At age 37, Pujols’ career is winding down. Yes, he is owed $144 million on the final four years of his contract, which runs through 2021. And yes, Pujols hit 40 home runs in a season as recently as 2015 and drove in 119 runs in 2016. However, having posted -0.9 Wins Above Replacement (or, rather, 0.9 wins below replacement) according to Baseball-Reference so far this season, it’s clear the future Hall of Famer’s best days are behind him.

Nevertheless, with so much (guaranteed) money still owed him, it’s conceivable we’ll see Pujols take his spot in the batter’s box for at least four more seasons. Plus, Pujols has an outside shot to overtake Bonds’ as MLB’s all-time leader in home runs, which makes him somewhat attractive as a marketing tool given the disdain many baseball fans have for Bonds, as well as the rarity of setting a new career home run record. After all, only two people have done it since Babe Ruth, so people would probably watch with glee as Pujols inched closer to 700, then 755, and finally 763.

Pujols began the season with 591 home runs. With five full seasons left on his contract, he would have needed 34.2 home runs per season to pass Bonds. The right-handed slugger has 11 long balls so far, so adding 23 more the rest of the way seems like a long shot. Unless Pujols picked up the pace – an unlikelihood for a player in his 17^th big league season – he’ll fall short of the record by 2021, when he’ll be 41. It’s also hard to imagine him getting another free agent deal at age 42.

Nevertheless, there may be a player on a Major League roster today that has what it takes to pass Bonds. Sam Miller of ESPN touched on this last week in a piece titled “What if Cody Bellinger is going to hit 763 home runs and we just don’t know it yet?” which basically puts the odds of the young slugger passing Bonds at between zero and 0.3 percent using mathematical modeling.

It’s difficult to predict given the unknowns surrounding injuries, potential off-field issues, and a variety of other factors that stopped players like Ken Griffey, Jr., Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez from making a serious run at the record.

But given the now annually increasing home run rate, concerns about the baseball being juiced, and the simple novelty of chasing such a record, it’s fun to think about what players have the best chance among active big leaguers to reach 763.

Random MLB Power Rankings: Most likely to hit 763 career home runs

(Age, career home runs)

1. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals (24, 139)
2. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (25, 184)
3. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (34, 454)
4. Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels (37, 602)
5. Cody Bellinger, LF/1B, Los Angeles Dodgers (21, 24)
6. Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins (27, 228)
7. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs (25, 81)
8. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles (24, 120)
9. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs (27, 151)
10. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves (27, 152)

I wasn’t a math major, but by my very rough calculations, it seems that Bryce Harper and Mike Trout would each need roughly 35 home runs per year between now and their age 42 seasons to reach 763 career home runs. That’s possible for both, with the usual health-related caveats, plus the fact that very few baseball players have been able to sustain production that even comes close to 35 home runs per year for 15-16 seasons.

One factor that gives Harper a slight edge in this set of power rankings is the feeling he could sign with the Yankees or Cubs as a free agent after the 2018 season. If Harper signs with New York in particular, and plays half his remaining career games in a Yankee Stadium perfectly suited for his left-handed swing, there’s a real chance he overtakes Bonds (though we’ll still put the arbitrary odds at less than a five percent likelihood).

The same could be said for Bellinger, who currently plays in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Also, don’t count out Miguel Cabrera, who needs 309 more homers and probably has a little less than a decade to hit them. However, earlier this year Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated calculated Cabrera would finish his career with 651 dingers.

Of note, Aaron Judge just missed the list. While the Yankees rookie slugger is mashing this season, and has 30 career home runs to date, he is already 25 years old – the same age as Trout and older than both Harper and Manny Machado.

Three things we learned this week

1. Trade season has begun

It wasn’t the first trade of the season, or even the one with the biggest name, but when the Miami Marlins traded shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria to the Tampa Bay Rays Monday, it signaled the beginning of the MLB trade season – a favorite summer pastime within the national pastime. The move also signaled the first two knowns of the trade season: The Marlins are sellers, and the Rays are buyers.

With a 34-40 record through Monday, Miami is sitting 10.5 games out of both first place in the NL East and the NL Wild Card, so its decision to sell isn’t a shock. Tampa Bay’s decision to buy, on the other hand, is slightly more surprising. The Rays are 40-38, just one game out in the AL Wild Card race and three games out in the AL East heading into a three-game weekday series in Pittsburgh.

However, as a notoriously cheap franchise that has shown a willingness to part with many of its best players, most fans and analysts thought it was more likely players like Chris Archer, Alex Cobb and Logan Morrison would be leaving St. Pete this summer than it would be for the club to make upgrades. That doesn’t appear to be the case now.

Hechavarria has hit .277/.288/.385 with a home run in 67 plate appearances this season, but is currently on the disabled list with an oblique strain. The Cuba native has hit .255/.291/.337 with 15 homers in six major league seasons. Though those offensive numbers are ugly (he has a 1.0 career offensive WAR according to Baseball-Reference), he is one of the smoothest-fielding shortstops in the major leagues, is making $4.35 million this season and has one more year of arbitration before being eligible for free agency in 2019.

2. K-Rod, future Hall of Famer, isn’t done yet

Despite poor recent results that led to his release from the Detroit Tigers, Francisco Rodriguez has had an outstanding career. Rodriguez has saved 437 games during his 16 years in the major leagues, which ranks No. 4 all-time and is 60 saves more than any active pitcher. He also set the single-season record for saves with 62 in 2008, a mark that still stands. With numbers like that, K-Rod might be worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown depending on whether or not saves are en vogue after he retires, and when his name comes up on the Hall of Fame ballot.

But, despite his résumé, the 34-year-old was removed from the closer role in Detroit, and eventually had to find a new job altogether after posting an ugly 7.82 ERA and 7.36 WHIP in 25.1 innings across 28 appearances with the Tigers – a club he saved 44 games for last season. He found one with the Washington Nationals, who announced Tuesday they signed K-Rod to a minor league deal. K-Rod will report to Triple-A Syracuse.

Rodriguez isn’t the flamethrower he was as a young star with the Angels, and has been pitching off his changeup for years. That strategy obviously hasn’t worked for him in 2017. However, the Nationals are desperate for bullpen help with a 4.98 ERA that ranks as the worst in the National League (only better than Detroit’s 5.20 bullpen ERA, for what it’s worth).

Adding an all-timer to the relief mix would usually be cause for celebration in D.C., but time will tell whether or not K-Rod can still get hitters out. Either way, he isn’t ready to walk away yet.

3. Kenley Jansen walked a hitter

Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen did something during a 1.2-inning save Sunday that he hadn’t done all season: walk a hitter. After more than 30 innings in 30 previous appearances, and with 51 strikeouts to his credit over that span, Jansen issued a his first walk of the season to Rockies slugger Nolan Arenado in the top of the ninth inning. Jansen came up just short of Curt Schilling’s MLB record string of 56 strikeouts without a walk, which he set in 2002.

Actually, prior to walking Arenado, Jansen did something else he hadn’t done all season: hit an RBI double. Interestingly enough, Jansen’s double came in his fourth at bat of the season – a rarity for a closer – and was his second hit this year (and third of his career). But Jansen is no typical closer. Before developing one of the nastiest cutters in baseball, and using it to post a 0.83 ERA, 0.53 FIP, 0.551 WHIP and 17 saves in his eighth major league season, Jansen was a catcher. A native of Curacao, Jansen signed with the Dodgers as an international free agent, and spent five minor league seasons both at and behind the plate before moving to the mound for good in 2009.

Most importantly, Jansen’s good work on the mound and at the plate Sunday helped the Dodgers finish off a sweep of the Rockies, which pushed their winning streak to 10 games, and added to their NL West lead.

Quotable

"“A demotion is a demotion. That’s obviously something that you don’t want to have, and it ticks you off a little bit. You can’t press, you can’t do anything like that. But you try to make things happen. You’ve got to go back to what made you successful in the first place.”"

– Kyle Schwarber, according to AP Sports Writer Luke Meredith on Schwarber’s recent demotion to Triple-A Iowa

The Chicago Cubs demoted one of the stars of their 2016 World Series-winning team Thursday. Kyle Schwarber hit .171/.295/.378 with 12 home runs and 10 doubles in 261 plate appearances across 64 games this year after sitting out nearly the entirety of last season with a serious knee injury. The 24-year-old outfielder and part-time catcher rehabbed quickly and returned in time to collect seven hits in 20 plate appearances in the Fall Classic – providing a spark for the Chicago lineup as a DH and pinch hitter.

Though Schwarber entered 2017 as the primary left fielder and leadoff hitter for the Cubs, and his power was as impressive as expected, the slugger’s overall production dipped. Also, the 6-foot, 235-pounder is a below average defender in left field. Overall, he was demoted with a -0.6 bWAR.

Schwarber still has great upside as a major league hitter, and his demotion shouldn’t be taken as a signal the Cubs have given up on him being a contributor during the 2017 pennant race and beyond. He’ll likely be back in the big leagues in July.

Nevertheless, the fact that Chicago decided it could live without Schwarber’s bat in the lineup for an extended time period could be a signal the team would be willing to trade him if the right offer came along – perhaps from an American League team that could utilize the left-handed hitter as a full-time DH.

Or, as Schwarber pointed to in his comments, his demotion could simply be an opportunity to work himself back to the major leagues. Such a move has helped players in the past. The most memorable and successful instance occurred when the Toronto Blue Jays demoted Roy Halladay to Single-A in 2000, when he was 23 years old and in his third MLB season.

Halladay responded by winning two Cy Young Awards, pitching 19 shutouts including a perfect game in 2010 and not including a postseason no-hitter later that same season. Halladay also made eight All-Star teams in the 13 years that followed, and likely paved his way to Cooperstown.

Play of the Week

Javier Baez, still good at catching the baseball.

Exhibit A:

Exhibit B:

League Leaders

Advanced baseball analytics consistently evolve, and the most recent evolution has involved an uptick in collecting data on more process-related information (such as exit velocity or launch angle) instead of calculating based on outcomes such as hits, home runs, total bases and the like. The invention of Statcast has allowed baseball thinkers to use process-related data to compare players in a another dimension.

The latest measure, sprint speed, was unveiled Tuesday. Sprint speed is a measure of foot speed, and is defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window,” at Baseball Savant, and is shown in feet per second. It simply aims to tell us which players are the fastest.

Statcast Sprint Speed

• Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds (30.1 ft/sec)
• Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (29.9)
• Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians (29.8)
• Franchy Cordero, San Diego Padres (29.6)
• Keon Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers (29.4)

It should come as no surprise that Billy Hamilton is the fastest man in baseball. But it may be stunning to see several players so close to him, including Bradley Zimmer and Franchy Cordero, whose presence in the top four probably did come as a surprise. Also, curious about the slowest player in baseball? It’s Albert Pujols, who measured in at 23.3 feet per second, just a tick below Brian McCann.

Other measures have become popular, including how hard a player hits the ball. The general thinking is that, regardless of whether or not a player actually collects base hits and home runs, if he continually hits the ball hard, good things will eventually happen. Below, we explore FanGraphs’ hard hit percentage, which shows how often a player makes hard contact on batted balls, compared to soft or medium contact, which is also measured.

Hard% (minimum 100 plate appearances)

• Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers (56.9%)
• J.D. Martinez, Detroit Tigers (52.8%)
• Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins (50.0%)
• Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers (49.3%)
• Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks (48.8%)

Some of the names on this list are not surprising, but the one at the top, Alex Avila, and the fact he leads by such a large margin, is. Avila has put together a career year at the plate for the Tigers this season hitting .323/.439/.587 with 10 home runs, by far his best performance at the plate since he was an All-Star in 2011.

A couple of interesting notes: Aaron Judge ranks sixth on the list with hard contact rate of 47.9 percent. Also, two more Tigers hitters, Nick Castellanos (47.8%) and Miguel Cabrera (47.2%) rank No. 7 and No. 8, respectively.

Which players limit hitters’ hard contact? FanGraphs can tell us that too.

Hard% (minimum 10 innings pitched)

• Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics (11.5%)
• Marc Rzepczynski, Seattle Mariners (12.2%)
• Felibe Rivero, Pittsburgh Pirates (16.7%)
• Kenley Jensen, Los Angeles Dodgers (17.2%)
• Bryan Mitchell, New York Yankees (17.8%)

There’s a bunch of names you probably never expected to see on an MLB leaderboard, plus Kenley Jansen. No starters made the cut with just 10 innings pitched as the cutoff, but the leader among starters is Astros lefty Cy Young candidate Dallas Keuchel at 20.1 percent.

Useless Info

ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian noted that when Kenley Jansen walked his first hitter Sunday, there were three starting pitchers – Kyle Gibson, Matt Cain, and Andrew Cashner – who all had 30 or more walks and fewer than 52 strikeouts.

The Dodgers scored five runs via wild pitches Sunday against the Rockies, which set a live-ball record according to Elias Sports. L.A. and Colorado combined for eight wild pitches in the game – more than any since 2013.

The Minnesota Twins used 26 different pitchers in their first 71 games this season, which puts the club on pace to break the MLB record.

One of those pitchers, Chris Gimenez, is actually a catcher, who according to Ryan M. Spaeder, became the first player to both pitch and catch in at least six games in a season since 1884.

Spaeder also pointed out that Tony Gwynn had two inside-the-park home runs during his career. Rickey Henderson had only one.

Joey Gallo has hit 20 home runs this season, which as Jared Sandler pointed out, put him in an exclusive club of Rangers to hit 20 homers in a season before turning 24. Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazara did it last season. Juan Gonzalez did it three times, including two 40-homer seasons. Gonzalez probably would have ranked highly on our most-likely-to-break-the-home-run-record list.

No Astros outfielder has finished a season with a .900 or better OPS since Lance Berkman in 2004. George Springer has a .912 OPS through his first 71 games.

Next: MLB Trade Rumors: Top 25 trade assets

Tim Tebow, the 29-year-old former football player, was promoted from the Mets’ Class-A South Atlantic League affiliate to High Class-A. Tebow hit .220/.311/.336 with three home runs in 64 games with the Columbia Fire Flies, a team we will forget ever existed now that the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback is headed to Florida.

For comparison’s sake, Bryce Harper played 73 games in the South Atlantic League, meaning Tebow was promoted nine games faster.