MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus June 28
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the MLB FanDuel: Pitching Focus column for Wednesday, June 28th. We’re back with a top pitching play, best mid-salary range option, contrarian pick, honorable mention, and stacking options for your hitter spots to fill up your MLB FanDuel lineups.
Like Tuesday, we have a full slate of 15 MLB games today. However, two of the games begin in the mid-afternoon period. So we’re going to focus on the Main MLB FanDuel slate, only, narrowing our games down to 13, giving us 26 pitchers to pick through for tonight’s slate.
As we dive through the sabermetrics and splits, we have identified several good pitching options at different levels of salary, and at least three stacking options to target for hitting tonight. Here’s the limited schedule of games we’re targeting for tonight’s Main slate:
CHC John Lackey at WSH Stephen Strasburg (7:05pm EDT)
TEX Yu Darvish at CLE Trevor Bauer (7:10pm EDT)
MIN Adalberto Mejía at BOS Rick Porcello (7:10pm EDT)
KC Ian Kennedy at DET Dan Norris (7:10pm EDT)
NYY Masahiro Tanaka at CHW Carlos Rodón (8:10pm EDT)
STL Adam Wainwright at ARZ Zack Godley (9:40pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
Last night, we saw Scherzer only pitch six innings, but once again provide a dominate performance with six strikeouts, a quality start, and win. Max’s only blemish was a home run given up in the first inning to Bryant, but we warned that was likely possible.
Scherzer only had 43 points, which was disappointing considering his 52 MLB FanDuel point average. His points were limited due to Dusty Baker and the Nationals leaning more on their bullpen in five run games like this one.
Stephen Strasburg ($10,300) has a nearly identical match up tonight, as Max did last night. Strasburg’s stats aren’t as dominate, but not drastically different either. Stephen has the best SIERA among all starters tonight, 3.54, a very good 27.5% strikeout ratio (also the best of the night), and low 6.8% walk rate.
While everyone typically points to Max and Stephen giving up a home run or two each outing, this year Strasburg is giving up less than one per nine innings. So while the Cubs were able to get one over the fence last night, they’re less likely to do so tonight, making Strasburg very attractive for only $10.3K
We don’t need to revisit all the Cubs stats against RHP’s away from Wrigley again today, but will summarize by recalling their 78 wRC+, third worst in baseball. Strasburg is a must play tonight, and he gives you more options with your hitters than Max did last night.
MLB FanDuel Mid-Salary Range Top Pick
Last night we loved Paxton as a top mid-salary range pick, and he paid off nicely. James dropped 43 MLB FanDuel points into our lineup, identical to Scherzer but for a significantly cheaper price ($8,500). James had a great setup in Seattle, pitching seven innings, fanning nine, getting a quality start and only giving up three runs. Unfortunately, the Mariners run support wasn’t there, and bullpen fell apart, so the win was out of reach.
Zack Godley ($8,100) is in a very similar situation to Paxton, last night. If you’re looking for a cheaper option than Strasburg, to build a more potent hitting lineup, Godley has the best chances of getting you over the 40 MLB FanDuel point mark below Stephen’s salary.
Zack has the second-best SIERA tonight, 3.66, and is fanning batters at a solid 23.6% rate. Godley has kept the batting average against him below .200 and has an awesome 1.00 WHIP. Zack is leaving over 80% of runners on base to end each inning, and is giving up only 0.63 home runs per nine innings, one of the lowest on the mound tonight.
While most MLB FanDuel players will likely fade Godley due to the Chase Field hitting environment, keep in mind he’s been able to pile up more than 40 points in two of his four starts there, and had 36 points against a solid Brewers lineup. Also, the Cardinals have a mediocre 93 wRC+ away from St. Louis this year, and have struggled all season. This is your best Strasburg-fade bet.
MLB FanDuel Contrarian Play of the Day
If you’re planning to play several GPP’s tonight, there’s an intriguing contrarian pick for you today. The Texas Rangers bats have been hot lately, and while looking for hitting stacks to target, I assumed Trevor Bauer ($8,000) may be an ideal match up for Rangers hitters.
But, I found the opposite to be true. Bauer has struggled at times this year, but also threw some gems at home, including a 14 strikeout and 64 MLB FanDuel point result against the Oakland A’s. The A’s aren’t comparable to the Rangers, but Trevor’s strikeout ratio is over 26%, and the Rangers are striking out at a 26% rate when hitting outside of Texas. So we can fully expect Bauer to pile up some K’s tonight.
While Bauer is 6-6 with a 5.53 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, he has the fourth best SIERA, 3.85, among all starting pitchers on the mound tonight. Trevor had some terrible outings away from Cleveland, including Coors Field, but when at home he’s been solid. This is a sneaky good contrarian play for any GPP lineups you’re planning for tonight, with great value at only $8K.
MLB FanDuel Honorable Mention
I originally planned to keep Masahiro Tanaka ($8,900) off my list. I expect the droves of New Yorkers to play their homer pick of the night at pitcher, and, like Bauer, Tanaka has been shaky at times this season. But, Tanaka has a fantastic match up in Chicago. The White Sox have the third worst wRC+ against RHP’s at home, 81, and they’re going down swinging at a 23% rate. So, while we already love three pitchers tonight, Tanaka is worth a consideration as well, as an honorable mention.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Boston Red Sox vs. Adalberto Mejía
Mejia has a terrible 5.31 SIERA, third worst among all starters tonight, and his walk rate is nearly as high as his strikeout rate, 13% BB% vs. 19.3% K%. Adalberto is a strong fade for the pitcher pick, and an immediate target for hitting.
The Red Sox were a great stack last night, and should be again tonight. They’re 10th in wRC+, at 105, and have a low 17% strikeout rate matched to a high 12% walk rate. So the Red Sox clearly match perfectly to Mejia’s weaknesses. But, keep in mind Adalberto is a LHP. While I suspect everyone in the lineup should do well against Mejia, you’ll want to focus on RHB’s, first, from the Red Sox lineup in Fenway tonight.
Detroit Tigers vs. Ian Kennedy
Kennedy’ stats are nearly identical to Mejia, with a high 5.10 SIERA, high 11.4% walk rate, but decent 20.4% strikeout rate. The problem Ian has tonight, he’s facing a Tigers lineup who has a 119 wRC+ in Detroit, seventh best in baseball.
While the Tigers strike out around Kennedy’s 20% rate, they’re also walking nearly 10% as well. Also, the Tigers Hard% in this scenario is 48%, the highest in baseball. So we should expect to see multiple home runs from this lineup tonight. If you’re playing Strasburg, this stack should be a more affordable option for you.
Washington Nationals vs. John Lackey
Lackey had a resurgent season last year, but like the Cubs this year, his performance is declining. John has a mediocre 4.31 SIERA, with a 21.5% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate. Those are so-so stats. But the biggest concern from Lackey is his 2.16 home runs per nine innings, one of the highest starting on the mound tonight.
The Nationals have a 123 wRC+ against RHP’s in Nats park this season, third best in baseball behind only the Yankees and Dodgers. They have a lower 19.1% strikeout rate and solid 9.1% walk rate. With a .512 slugging percentage, third best, and 32.5% Hard% rate, we can expect to see several long-balls over the fence tonight in Nats park, off of Nats bats. They’re expensive, but this stack is great with one of the value pitcher options we already discussed.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!