MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus June 29 Main
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the Thursday, June 29th Main edition of the MLB FanDuel: Pitching Focus article. This column is focusing on the Main slate, for tonight, only. We will identify top pitching plays, several best value picks, and stacking options for your hitter spots to fill up your MLB FanDuel lineups.
With five games already played this afternoon, there are only eight games available, giving us 16 pitcher options to pick through. Like this afternoon, there are many great pitching match ups, and several top plays of the day.
As we dive through the sabermetrics and splits, we will pinpoint the top plays we like the most, and highlight the better value options to match to the stacking options we’ll find as well. Here’s the limited schedule of games we’re targeting for tonight’s Main slate:
TB Chris Archer at PIT Jameson Taillon (7:05pm EDT)
BAL Ubaldo Jiménez at TOR J.A. Happ (7:07pm EDT)
MIN Kyle Gibson at BOS David Price (7:10pm EDT)
MIL Jimmy Nelson at CIN Homer Bailey (7:10pm EDT)
ATL Jaime García at SD Dinelson Lamet (9:10pm EDT)
LAD Clayton Kershaw at LAA J.C. Ramírez (10:07pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching plays of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
After Scherzer and Strasburg performed well for our MLB FanDuel lineups over the past two days, it’s hard to ignore Clayton Kershaw ($12,500). The Dodgers southpaw is the best pitcher on the MLB schedule today. Kershaw has a 3.09 SIERA, with a 29.2% strikeout rate and very low 4.3% walk rate.
Clayton has 50+ MLB FanDuel points in three of his last five starts, the other two results were still a decent 37 points. With 13 quality starts in 16 games, it’s hard to argue Kershaw is a consistent MLB FanDuel rock-star. However, at $12.5K today, it’s also hard to avoid all the other top pitching plays, for a better value.
We’ll visit some additional value options later, but the most obvious best value comparison is Clayton to Chris Archer ($10,400). Archer has an identical 29.2% strikeout rate, a higher 7.6% walk rate, good 3.48 SIERA, and a WHIP of 1.20, higher than Kershaw’s 0.92 WHIP.
In his last six starts, Archer has three games with 46+ MLB FanDuel points, including a 60 point game in Minnesota. So we’re getting a small step down from Kershaw’s typical outcome, for a significantly cheaper price, saving $2.1K. Also, when comparing match ups, both pitcher is facing a lineup who struggles with today’s splits and has a mediocre 16% to 17% strikeout rate. I prefer Archer today against the Pirates bats, saving money for a bigger hitting lineup.
MLB FanDuel Top Value Pitcher
There are many additional better-value picks after Archer, including Jimmy Nelson ($8,700). But Jimmy and some of the other options have some inconsistency or red flags in their metrics. So, we’ve settled on the clear top value of the day with Dinelson Lamet ($8,100).
Starting his season in late May, Lamet was one of the best values in MLB FanDuel for two weeks. Dinelson then struggled in Chase Field against the Diamondbacks and didn’t recover well the next week in San Diego against the Royals. But Lamet seems to have bounced back, pitching two straight quality starts, against the Brewers and Tigers, both solid hitting lineups.
In six starts, Lamet now has a great 3.35 SIERA, just below Happ, who we’ll discuss later, and ahead of Archer. Dinelson also has a tremendous 32.3% strikeout rate with a mediocre 7.7% walk rate.
Lamet’s biggest risk is that he’s giving up more than two home runs per nine innings. But with the stage set up a poor hitting park, in San Diego, against the Braves, we can be confident Dinelson’s home run rate should drop after this game. If you’re looking to really load up on sluggers but want an affordable shot at 40+ MLB FanDuel points, Lamet is your best bet.
MLB FanDuel Contrarian Play of the Day
He’s $300 more expensive than Dinelson, but J.A. Happ ($8,400) is another really good value pick for tonight, and if you’re not sold on Lamet. Over the last three starts, Happ has fired on all cylinders, fanning over seven batters per game and averaging over 45 MLB FanDuel points-per-game.
Happ has the second best SIERA in this slate, a tad higher than Lamet, at 3.34. In fact, several of his metrics are also lining up similar to Kershaw, like Archer, giving us yet another reason not to use Clayton tonight. J.A. has a 26.1% strikeout rate and very low 3.7% walk rate. Also with a low 1.12 WHIP, the only dig on Happ has been his 1.61 home runs per nine innings.
Happ is facing the Baltimore Orioles tonight, in Toronto. The O’s have a very high 26.4% strikeout rate, perfect for this match up, and sub-par 88 wRC+. With a 39.2% Hard% rate, we do have to be concerned about Happ giving up a home run or two, but in Toronto he should be able to cap the outing at three runs or less, giving us a quality start and win, assuming the pen holds up. This is another solid value pitching up, in a night full of value available.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Boston Red Sox vs. Kyle Gibson
Boy, for only being a half-game from the first place Indians in the AL Central, the Minnesota Twins continue to make it easy for us to stack the Red Sox, now the third straight day it’s recommended. The Twins reluctantly let Gibson take the mound again tonight. Kyle is struggling mightily this season, now with a 5.39 SIERA. Klye has a low 14.5% strikeout rate and high 10.9% walk rate. Additional with a 1.83 WHIP, it’s easy to get excited about this stack. We won’t go through the Sox metrics, I think you get it by now.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Homer Bailey
Bailey has only pitched in one game this season, but it was horrendous. Homer only lasted 1.2 innings against the Washington Nationals. Bailey struck out two batters, but walked three, gave up six hits, and an ugly eight runs.
Milwaukee has a near league average 94 wRC+ against RHP’s away from home, 12th best in baseball. Their strikeout rate is a decent 21.7%, and they’re walking 9.2% of the time. Also with a decent .420 slugging percentage and .746 OPS, we know the big Brewer bats should give Bailey a hard time again tonight. My only concern is that I hope the Reds don’t yank Homer too early.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Ubaldo Jiménez
The Blue Jays have been a popular bet against the Orioles arms. I faded the Blue Jays last night, as I’ve been concerned about their production this season. But whenever Jimenez is on the mound, I’m going to stack an offense against him.
Ubaldo now has a 5.08 SIERA, decent 18% strikeout rate but horrible 11.3% walk rate. My favorite hitters stack stat from Jimenez is his 2.19 home runs per nine innings this season. Ubaldo has struggled with long-balls for almost two years now, and that should continue in Toronto tonight.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!