Free agency predictions that are guaranteed to become true

With the long shadow of the Warriors and Cavaliers looming over each season, it’s tempting to say that the NBA is predictable. Getting any more specific than predicting the eventual Finals match-up, though, is straight-up impossible. Perfect example: It would have been daft, a week ago, to predict that Chris Paul would pick up his 2017-18 player option — and it would have been a piece of uninspired Houston homerism to say that Paul would suit up next season for the Rockets. But here we are.

Given that we’re coming up on the two weeks in the NBA season where the league’s high-powered executive bosses must suddenly act like high school boys desperate for a prom date — showing up at front doors at midnight, putting together PowerPoints about why they are good — some wild, regrettable stuff is about to go down. Thanks to my cunning and incisive basketball mind, I can see with total clarity the following five things that are on the verge of happening this July.

I’ll check back in August to see if these predictions blew up Stephen A.-style in my face.

1. Sean Marks will throw a RFA offer of over $50 million at Jonathon Simmons

Last summer, Marks got his GM tenure in Brooklyn off to a creative start by throwing huge offers at restricted free agents who had next to no NBA experience. The Heat’s Tyler Johnson had played 68 career games and got a four-year, $50 million offer from Marks. The Trail Blazers’ Allen Crabbe had only played 19.6 minutes per game across his first three years in Portland, and received a four-year, $78.4 million offer. Marks wasn’t just playing irresponsibly with Brooklyn’s newfound gobs of cap space — both the Heat and Trail Blazers matched the offers and retained their players. I think this only justifies Marks’ strategy, and I think we’ll see it again this year.

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Simmons is actually one of the few players that Marks has already acquired before. Marks was working as San Antonio’s assistant general manager when the Spurs gave the then-D-Leaguer a contract with the big squad in July 2015. With the Spurs rumored to be gunning for A-listers again, I bet Marks spies an opportunity to steal away a trustworthy friend.

2. Mason Plumlee will get more guaranteed money than Luc Mbah a Moute

Mbah a Moute is a role player, but a role player with an elite skill: tireless wing defense. We’re not in 2003 anymore, and the trend is that even defense-only players — Rudy Gobert, DeAndre Jordan, Ian Mahinmi, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist — get paid. Not so with Mbah a Moute. Nine seasons into his career, he’s earned an average of $2.6 million a year. That’s basically how much No. 10 pick Zach Collins is going to make sitting on the Portland bench in 2017-18. If Mbah a Moute doesn’t feel personally slighted, I feel personally slighted for him.

The same basketball decision-makers can’t stop tripping over themselves to get at the middle Plumlee. Mason has been traded twice in exchange for a first-round pick. Even though Plumlee is just three years younger than Mbah a Moute, I think that this unexplained preferred treatment continues for the Duke man.

3. The Lakers concede more future resources by trading Luol Deng to a rebuilder with more patience

Although I believe the Lakers lost the battle (if you will) of last week’s D’Angelo Russell trade, it is at least plausible that Magic Johnson comes back to win the war in the summer of 2018 with his newly cleared-out cap. As onerous as the Timofey Mozgov contract was for the Lakers, the Deng one is even worse. In 2016-17, the poor fella dropped what was easily a career-worst year — his 19-year-old rookie season in 2004-05 included.

Look, it’s probably not Deng’s fault. Just about nobody emerged from those Tom Thibodeau Bulls teams looking better for it. Still, if Chandler Parsons regains his health, Deng’s contract (three years, $54 million remaining) is probably the most toxic one in the league. Cap-responsible rebuilding squads like the Nets, Nuggets or Kings could receive some worthwhile deep-future draft assets for taking on Deng, who is the rare ultra-likable cap albatross.

4. The Kings’ most expensive move will receive consensus A grades

What, the Kings are a cap-responsible rebuilding team? It’s true. Even though Vlade Divac went through a pretty miserable time learning on the job, his last 12 months — DeMarcus Cousins trade included — have the Kings genuinely pointed in the right direction for the first time since Chris Webber was in uniform. Once Divac has added his three (!) 2017 first-round picks to the roster, plus stashed 2014 first-rounder Bogdan Bogdanovic, the Kings will still have less than $50 million committed to their 2017-18 team, a squad that has only two (!) players older than 25 on it.

Maybe the only thing — and it is a big thing — keeping Sacramento from being an ideal rebuild is that they don’t have a lot of future draft resources pointed their way. So the Kings’ most expensive move this summer might be for a younger free agent, somebody like JaMychal Green, Patty Mills or Jonathon Simmons. But Divac’s most expensive move might also see Sacramento bringing aboard a toxic contract in exchange for future picks. If we see Jahlil Okafor, Alec Burks, Channing Frye, Iman Shumpert or even Dwyane Wade in a Kings uniform next year — or maybe just on the Kings’ cap sheet — it’s probably another sign that Divac just might be getting the hang of this thing.

5. The 76ers will invest less than $50 million in guaranteed money on veteran free agents — again

Speaking of GMs who have started to turn around their reputations with a fantastic sequence of moves, Bryan Colangelo is honestly doing an incredible job for Philadelphia, continuing where Sam Hinkie left off. Even the little flourishes like signing Shawn Long to a 10-day contract and trading him for a second-round pick three months later have to make Hinkie smile from his Silicon Valley hideout.

Last summer, with the temptation of a wide-open cap sheet in front of him, Colangelo guaranteed just $45 million, across all years, to free agents: $8 million to Sergio Rodriguez (all for last year), $10 million to Gerald Henderson and $27 million to Jerryd Bayless. There’s actually even less room to make moves this summer: Philadelphia is starting, in the best way, to bump into the limits of available roster spots and minutes on the floor.

Next: Celtics offseason preview

The team took in a monster haul of four more players in this year’s draft and have spent the days since talking with 2016 first-rounder Furkan Korkmaz about coming over. Plus, it’s already time to plan for guys who are moving into their second contracts — undrafted gem Robert Covington is due to become an unrestricted free agent next summer. The time to negotiate a long-term deal with him is right now. The most attention-grabbing team in the draft is going to have to lay low again for July in order to keep this increasingly phenomenal roster together.