MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus June 30
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the MLB FanDuel: Pitching Focus column for Friday, June 30th. We’re focused on the top pitching play of the day, the best ‘top play’ fade, value option, and stacking targets for hitting to fill up your MLB FanDuel lineups.
Tonight, all 15 games are slated for the evening, giving us 30 pitchers to pick through for your MLB FanDuel lineups, with many great options. There are more than a handful of top plays tonight, but we’ll narrow down to the pitchers we like the most, and who will give you the best value for your lineups.
As we dive through the sabermetrics and splits, we’ll also identify some great stacking options targeting pitchers we highly recommend fading. With so many good options today, there will be lower ownership across the board, and we can play multiple lineups for a very exciting Friday night. Here’s the limited schedule of games we’re targeting for tonight’s Main slate:
TB Jacob Faria at BAL Chris Tillman (7:05pm EDT)
PHI Ben Lively at NYM Jacob deGrom (7:10pm EDT)
NYY Michael Pineda at HOU Lance McCullers Jr. (8:10pm EDT)
SEA Ariel Miranda at LAA Parker Bridwell (10:07pm EDT)
LAD Alex Wood at SD Clayton Richard (10:10pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
Keeping with the trend of the week, we have yet another juicy top play which will also likely be the chalky, most popular, pick of the day. Alex Wood ($10,500) is starting to develop an argument for best pitcher on the Dodgers staff. I know it’s early to say that, given Kershaw’s career, but with an 8-0 record, 1.86 ERA, and 0.93 WHIP, Wood has been absolutely tremendous this season.
While Alex has a 35.9 MLB FanDuel point-per-game average this season, Wood was landing around 20-30 points in April, and spiked into the 40’s and 50’s in May through June. So in many ways, his MLB FanDuel point average is misleading. In his last six starts, Alex has five games between 44 and 58 MLB FanDuel points.
The best part about Wood tonight, and why everyone will try to own him, is the $10.5K salary while pitching in a hitter-constrained park in San Diego. Alex is averaging around six to seven strikeouts per game, and should land there, or higher, today and it’s unlikely he’ll give up many runs locking in a QS and very likely win.
So, Alex has a very good shot at 50 MLB FanDuel points on a salary that’s $1.6K cheaper than deGrom. Jacob also has a good match up against the Phillies, but not nearly as reliable as a rock-solid Wood in San Diego. deGrom has a 1.3 home run per nine inning average compared to a rock-bottom 0.27 for Wood in a park few are going yard in on a regular bases. You need Alex in at least one set of lineups tonight.
MLB FanDuel Wood Fade / Contrarian Play
The only major issue with Wood is ownership. It’s likely he’ll be owned at least 20%+ in most GGP plays, and much higher in cash plays. The good news is there’s many great pitching options tonight, including an option many will likely fade because of the match up, Lance McCullers Jr. ($9,500).
Before you roll your eyes at this point, or think ‘yeah, but Yankees bats’, keep in mind McCullers already piled up 49 MLB FanDuel points on the Yanks in May, in New York. In that game, Lance didn’t walk a batter, gave up no earned runs, only let four batters get on base, struck out seven, and got the QS along with the win. In short, he shut the Yankees bats down in their own park.
The Yankees have a great 112 wRC+ against RHP’s away from New York, like tonight in Houston. But Lance isn’t your typical right-handed pitcher. McCullers has the second best SIERA tonight, 2.94, just behind Wood. Lance is only giving up 0.66 home runs per nine innings, has a awesome 29.4% strikeout rate, and decent 7% walk rate.
The best part about this play is that you’re getting mid-40 to mid-50 MLB FanDuel points, $1K cheaper than Wood, and McCullers is flying under the radar tonight with a lower 5-8% ownership in GPPs, and teens in cash. I love this play tonight!
MLB FanDuel Value Play of the Day
If you’re looking for more value at pitcher because you want to play some expensive bats, Jacob Faria ($8,400) is your guy. With a 3.29 SIERA, Faria is the third best pitcher on the mound tonight, but in the low-middle tier of salary. With another solid outing from Jacob tonight, he’s likely climbing into the $9K range next outing, so let’s get him while he’s still cheap.
One of the things I like most about Jacob tonight is the fact that he’s already faced the Orioles once. Faria only piled up 34 MLB FanDuel points in the game, but he still had seven K’s and a quality start. Against a much lesser opponent, Tillman, it’s more likely Faria gets a win, and if he had in the last game, he would’ve had 46 points.
Still, this is a tricky match up. Baltimore is 18th in wRC+, 96, against RHP’s in Camden Yards. But the O’s are still striking out at a 21.6% rate in this scenario, and have a very low 28.9% Hard %, so the ball hasn’t been flying off bats at a high speed. Like McCullers, we expect Faria’s ownership to be in the 5-8% ownership range, giving us a great advantage if he throws another gem in Baltimore tonight.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chris Tillman
The Rays have been feasting on RHP’s away from home. Tampa’s run production is second in baseball with a 114 wRC+. The Rays have a high strikeout rate over the last two years, but that hasn’t prevented them for piling up runs throughout each season.
In this type of match up, they have a .217 ISO, also second best in baseball, and awesome .812 OPS, and .482 slugging percentage. Meanwhile, Tillman is giving up over two home runs per game, has a high 10.7% walk rate, and low 13.8% strikeout rate. This match up spells disaster for the Orioles and a slug-fest for the Rays. Stack Tampa Bay tonight.
New York Mets vs. Ben Lively
Lively’s stats, on the surface, are misleading. With a 1-2 record, Ben has a low 3.90 ERA and so-so 1.38 WHIP. But in 32.1 innings, Lively has the worst SIERA, 5.93, among all the starters tonight. Ben’s horrendous 8.1% strikeout rate and over one home run per nine inning trend signals an opportunity for the Mets bats to come alive tonight.
The Mets have had injuries plaguing them all season, but they’re beginning to recover. New York has a league average 100 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home. That should rise above average against a sub-par Lively tonight.
Seattle Mariners vs. Parker Bridwell
Bridwell presents another poor pitching opportunity for our bats, this time stacking Mariners. Seattle has a 96 wRC+, but that’s good enough for 10th best in baseball against RHP’s away from home. With a .260 batting average in this match up, the Mariners have the 6th best average in baseball, presenting a problem for the struggling Bridwell.
Parker is 2-0 with a 2.95 ERA, but a higher 1.33 WHIP. Bridwell’s high-level stats are also misleading, which may help us with Mariners ownership tonight. In 21.1 innings pitched, Bridwell is giving up nearly seven hits in an average of around five innings per game, and walked five batters in New York on June 20th.
Parker’s 5.16 SIERA is alarming, and his low 13.8% strikeout rate is problematic for someone who’s also giving up over two home runs per nine innings. This is a great match up for Mariners stacked bats, most of which should be affordable.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!