Will the Raptors pull together or come apart this offseason?

The Toronto Raptors are entering the summer of 2017 coming off what was unquestionably the most successful four-year stretch in franchise history. During those four years, they were actually the winningest team in the Eastern Conference, having won 10 more games than the Cleveland Cavaliers. (LeBron’s only been back for three years, guys.)

The team from the North has won 62 percent of its games, made the playoffs four times, taken home three Atlantic Division titles, and won three playoff series over the last four seasons, figures that easily top any other four-year span since the team was founded back in 1995.

Just check out the team’s recent history.

Nevertheless, the Raps have not really come close to capturing the Eastern Conference crown. They were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in both 2014 and 2015, then fell in back-to-back uncompetitive series against the Cavaliers the last two years. The 2016 series ended 4-2 and was at one point tied at two games apiece, but LeBron was so unconcerned about the potential of the Cavs losing to the Raptors that he told reporters after Cleveland’s 38-point Game 5 victory, “I’ve been a part of some very adverse situations. And I just didn’t believe that this was one of them.” A year later, despite loading up with versatile defenders at the trade deadline, the Raptors let Cleveland sweep them out of the second round.

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On the eve of the free agency period set to begin almost two months after they were eliminated, the Raptors are staring down the barrel of major changes. The team’s former general manager, Jeff Weltman, left earlier this summer to run the Orlando Magic. Toronto’s best player — Kyle Lowry — is a free agent, and so are three more players from the top-seven in minutes played for the team after the deadline: Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson, and P.J. Tucker.

That’s a lot of balls to have in the air all at once, and it’s not like there are many easy decisions to be made.

Lowry, having now played 11 seasons in the league, is eligible for a contract that contains a starting salary equal to 35 percent of the cap. With the most recent projections pegging the cap at $99 million, such a deal would pay him $201 million over five years — and see him drawing a salary in excess of $45 million at age 35. If that doesn’t sound all that desirable to you, well it probably shouldn’t. But Lowry’s well within his rights to demand that type of deal, and to feel at least a bit insulted if the Raptors don’t offer it. He’s the team’s best player; he’s coming off what was likely the best season of his career; and the Raptors were absolutely nowhere as a franchise before they acquired him. They’ve won three times as many playoff series during Lowry’s five years in Toronto than they’d won in the 17 years of their existence that preceded his acquisition.

However, it seems like Lowry might already be on his way out the door. Bruce Arthur reported earlier this month that other teams were being told in mid-May that Lowry had “no interest” in returning to the Raptors, even if the team did offer that fifth year — which they had no intention of doing anyway. Though some of the teams that might have been options for him have seen their need for a point guard dissipate (76ers, Kings), new potential suitors have emerged. Jimmy Butler is reportedly recruiting him to the Timberwolves, for example.

If Lowry does not return, the Raptors’ ceiling as a team changes significantly for the worse; and that reality should have a dramatic effect on what happens with Ibaka, Patterson, and Tucker. Serge was acquired for Terrence Ross and a first-round pick and the plan at the time was to re-sign both him and Lowry. (The two players share an agent, Andy Miller.) If Lowry leaves, paying Ibaka over the long-term — even on a deal that doesn’t hit his maximum — becomes significantly less appealing. It was reported in May that the two sides had basically agreed on a new contract starting at around $20 million, but a lot has changed since then. Reneging on a wink-wink agreement isn’t good business but if Miller is already sending Lowry elsewhere and the Raptors are no longer going to be competitive, maybe he’s comfortable taking his business somewhere else.

If Lowry and/or Ibaka aren’t back, that should also affect Patterson and Tucker. They’re crucial role players Toronto should bring back using their Bird rights if they’re going to remain a competitive team in the Eastern Conference, but coming anywhere close to a double-digit million dollar per year offer for Patterson if Toronto’s not in the playoff mix seems unwise. He’s valuable to them as a floor-spacer and space-defender that allows them to play big or small depending on the opposing group, but handing over that much money for what is likely to be the beginning of the decline phase of his career isn’t worth it if he’s just going to block younger players from getting on the floor. The same is true of Tucker, who could get something close to the full mid-level from a contender on the open market.

Luckily for the Raptors, they’re actually in a fairly decent position to pivot if they do have to suddenly undertake a rebuild. It’s actually what they were prepared to do at the start of this era before the trade of Rudy Gay to Sacramento spontaneously kicked the team into overdrive and thrust them into the playoff picture.

A few years later, they have some interesting young pieces — O.G. Anunoby, Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam, Delon Wright, Norman Powell — and own all their draft picks moving forward. They have Cory Joseph’s very tradable contract with which to pick up more assets. Nobody on the roster is guaranteed any salary beyond 2019 except DeMar DeRozan, whose deal looks positively quaint compared to what max or near-max players can get this summer. DeMarre Carroll’s onerous contract comes off the books that summer, and if the Raptors can find a way to ditch Jonas Valanciunas and his $17.6 million player option for the 2019-20 season between now and then, they’ll be awash in cap space. (Jonas should likely be on the block whether everybody re-signs or not. He is, for the most part, an offense-only big man that has yet to prove he can carry an offense. It remains to be seen if anyone is interested in that type of player at that type of money, though.)

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There are options here and, especially if Ujiri doesn’t go anywhere, a competent front office that knows how best to pursue them. Things might get dark for a couple years, and it would stink to see that happen in Toronto after how the last few seasons came together for them. But again, these last few seasons were a happy accident. This version of the team was never supposed to come together. They took their best shot and came up short. It might now just be time to crank the gears back up and get ready to fire again.