This is the MLB FanDuel: Pitching Focus column for Saturday, July 1st. With three primary MLB FanDuel slates, we’re going to focus this column on the ‘Early’ slate only.
For your MLB FanDuel lineups, we’re going to review the top pitching play of the day, best ‘top play’ fade option, a value pick, and two pitchers to stack against. Honestly, of the three slates today, this is the best set of pitching match ups. FanDuel has set up a ‘Main’ and ‘Main II’ set of options as well, but the pitching in those lineups is horrible.
As we review the sabermetrics and splits, you’ll see the top play is obvious, and fade is easily the next best option. Also, the value pick does come with some risk, and the rest of the pitchers today provide a lot of hitting opportunity. Here’s the limited schedule of games for the Early slate, only:
BOS Chris Sale at TOR Francisco Liriano (1:07pm EDT)
CLE Josh Tomlin at DET Anibal Sanchez (1:10pm EDT)
TEX Cole Hamels at CHW Derek Holland (2:10pm EDT)
MIN Jose Berríos at KC Luke Farrell (2:15pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
It’s fitting that Chris Sale ($11,600) is pitching today. Every day this week, we’ve had at least one dominate pitching option at the top of the pitching list. Chris is the third pitcher in the last five days who averages over 50 MLB FanDuel points-per-game. So he’s a slam dunk pick for cash, and some GPP plays as well.
Sale has a 2.61 SIERA, which blows away the competition among all starting pitchers today. With Chris, you’re getting a high 35.2% strikeout rate, low 4.8% walk rate, Sale is only giving up 0.71 home runs per nine innings, the lowest among all pitchers this early afternoon.
This afternoon, Chris and the Red Sox face a Blue Jays lineup who’s struggled this season. This Blue Jays team seems like a hollow form of its old self. Facing LHP’s at home in Toronto, the Blue Jays have a 92 wRC+, 18th in baseball.
Toronto’s 24.8% strikeout rate makes this match up very juicy for Sale as well. Regardless of the other Blue Jays hitting metrics in this scenario, we’re getting a sub-par lineup against one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball.
MLB FanDuel Sale Fade
While Sale is clearly the best pitcher today, and for this slate, you’ll need to find another pitcher if you want to win some GPP’s, and Jose Berríos ($9,800) is the best Sale fade option. While looking at the pitching metrics this afternoon, and frankly the entire day, there’s a huge drop-off after Berrios.
Jose has a solid 3.85 SIERA, great 25.2% strikeout rate, and palpable 7.1% walk rate. Like Sale, Berrios also has a sub-1.00 home run per nine inning rate, 0.75. With a low 0.98 WHIP and 0.195 batting average against Jose, it’s clear hitters have struggled to figure Berrios out.
The match up the Twins and Jose have today even makes a case for Berrios as a better overall option than sale, while also saving $1.8K in salary. The Royals facing RHP’s in Kansas City have an 86 wRC+, 27th in baseball.
The Royals are only striking out 19.2% of the time in this scenario, but their batting average is only .259 and OBP a low .310, so overall offensive production is low, giving us a high chance for a Quality Start and win from Berrios. Jose is the best Sale-fade option today, and especially this early afternoon.
MLB FanDuel Value Play of the Day
The Tigers have a 118 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home in Detroit. The Tigers are also striking out at a mediocre 19.2% rate in this scenario as well. So I’m immediately pointing out this value play has plenty of risk associated with it.
Still, looking through the rest of the pitching options, Josh Tomlin ($7,200) is clearly the next best option after Berrios, and the match up against the Tigers plummets his salary down to $7.2K, which presents a great value opportunity if Tomlin can tame the Tigers in Detriot.
Josh hasn’t faced the Tigers yet this year, and has been inconsistent, but he successfully fanned six Astros for a 31 MLB FanDuel point result earlier this season, and locked down the Twins for eight innings, piling up 46 points. So there’s potential in his game.
Through 81.1 innings, Tomlin has a decent 4.29 SIERA and very low 2.6% walk rate. Unfortunately, his strikeout rate is only 17.3% and he’s giving up 1.66 home runs per nine innings. But in comparison to the rest of the pitchers today, Josh is better in almost every category. If you’re looking for a value option to load up on bats, Tomlin is your best bet.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Cleveland Indians vs. Anibal Sanchez
This slate if full of terrible pitching options, so stacking hitters is going to be easy. But we’re highlight two of the worst pitchers, starting with Sanchez. Anibal has a respectable 4.34 SIERA, but is giving up a horrendous 2.81 home runs per nine innings.
Sanchez has a .299 batting average against him and very high 1.66 WHIP. He’s fanning just over 20% of hitters, but is also walking at an 8% rate. The Indians are 5th in baseball against RHP’s away from home, with a 101 wRC+. In fact, unfortunately for Sanchez, a lot of the Indians metrics line up well against Anibal, making the Tribe a great stacking option today.
Texas Rangers vs. Derek Holland
Holland is giving up 1.75 home runs per nine innings, lower than Sanchez, but that’s where the better comparison ends. Derek has a high 4.85 SIERA, 9.4% walk rate, and 19.3% strikeout rate. Before the Rangers hit a buzz-saw of two straight great starting pitching match ups this week, their bats were hot.
The Ranges haven’t performed well against LHP’s away from home, making them cheaper today, but Holland is on the low-end of the LHP competition they’re used to facing. The Rangers are a sneaky and cheap stack this afternoon.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
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