Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Pitching Focus column. This is the Sunday, July 2nd edition. With a ‘Main’ and ‘All Day’ slate as the primary plays for Sunday, we’ll identify the top plays, fade options, value plays, and stacking targets for your MLB FanDuel lineups.
FanDuel only allows the first ten games of the day to be part of the ‘Main’ slate. That’s unfortunate, because there are some very good pitching match ups quickly after the last games of the Main slate. Also, the only other primary play is an All Day slate, covering every game of the day.
So, to provide options for any plays on Sunday, we’re going to review every pitcher today, and provide top plays for the difference time slots. As we review the sabermetrics and splits, you’ll see there are plenty of top options in each slate, the fade picks are competitive with the top options, and there’s plenty of value today. We’ve narrowed our search down to nine games. Here’s the limited schedule of games we’re focused on today:
Early
BOS Drew Pomeranz at TOR Joe Biagini (1:07pm EDT)
SF Jeff Samardzija at PIT Trevor Williams (1:35pm EDT)
TB Alex Cobb at BAL Kevin Gausman (1:35pm EDT)
MIA Dan Straily at MIL Junior Guerra (2:10pm EDT)
MIN Hector Santiago at KC Travis Wood (2:15pm EDT)
Mid-Day
SEA James Paxton at LAA Jesse Chávez (3:37pm EDT)
ATL Julio Teheran at OAK Sean Manaea (4:05pm EDT)
LAD Kenta Maeda at SD Jhoulys Chacin (4:40pm EDT)
Evening
WSH Max Scherzer at STL Carlos Martínez (8:08pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play – Early
Given the Giants struggles this season, I typically avoid looking their way when they have a starting pitcher on the mound, with the exception of Jeff Samardzija ($8,900). Jeff is a woeful 3-9, but that’s mostly due to the lack of run support. While Samardzija has a bad 4.63 ERA, he has a very solid 1.14 WHIP.
Over the last six games, Samardzija had 31 to 60 MLB FanDuel points in four of the six starts. However, in the two starts where Jeff struggled, each was in a very hitter-friendly Coors Field. So we can arguably throw those results out. And those outcomes help mute Jeff’s impact and lower his salary, making him even more attractive today.
Samardzija currently has a 3.14 SIERA, second best among all starting pitchers today, only behind Scherzer. Given his high-level results, that’s eye-opening. Jeff is giving up just over one home run per game, but has a 27.2% strikeout rate and low 3% walk rate. So in a hitter-friendly park, Samardzija is a fade, but in a pitcher-friendly park, he’s a must start.
Jeff and the Giants are in Pittsburgh’s PNC Park today, rarely favoring hitters. And the Pirates have a 92 wRC+, 22nd in baseball, against RHP’s at home. The Pirates also have a low .381 slugging percentage in this scenario, further proving Jeff’s long-ball issue isn’t a risk today. This is a great points and value play today.
MLB FanDuel Samardzija Fade – Early
Another great play potentially flying under the radar today is Drew Pomeranz ($8,400). Unlikely Samardzija, the Red Sox left-hander has decent standard pitching stats, with a 7-4 record, decent 3.81 ERA, and OK 1.31 WHIP. But as you dig further through Drew’s stats, we realize his lines up well against the Blue Jays in Toronto.
Against LHP’s at home, the Blue Jays have a 92 wRC+, 18th in baseball. That isn’t terrible, but in comparison to the last couple of seasons, it shows how far the Blue Jays have fallen this season. While the Blue Jays have hit the ball hard, they only have a .234 batting average in this scenario, and they’re facing one of the better left-handers in the league. They also have a high 24.8% strikeout rate.
Pomeranz is giving up 1.27 home runs per nine innings, not too bad. And Drew has a very good 26.7% strikeout rate. Matched with a solid 7.5% walk rate, Drew has a 3.70 SIERA, fifth best among all starters today. And like Samardzija, Pomeranz has piled up 30, 40, and 50 MLB FanDuel points in most games, with the exception of a bad outing against the Tigers. So consistency is there. This is a great early afternoon fade option, from Samardzija.
MLB FanDuel Value Play of the Day – Early
Most of the 12.25 MLB FanDuel point average per game for Joe Biagini ($7,100) is the result of relief outings. So his points average is very misleading. Also, when I looked at Biagini’s metrics, I was pleasantly surprised.
Joe has a very good 3.87 SIERA, eighth best among the starters today. Biagini has a decent 19.7%, which could climb with more starts, and low 6.3% walk rate. Joe is also only giving up 0.66 home runs per nine innings.
Biagini has struggled in a few starts, so there’s definitely risk with this play. Joe was shelled by the White Sox on June 16th, giving up eight hits, one walk, six runs, and no strikeouts in just one inning. But Biagini also had a 40 MLB FanDuel point gem against the Yankees earlier this month, with six strikeouts, four hits, one walk and earned run for a quality start.
The Red Sox are striking out around 20% of the time in this scenario, but are at risk for a higher average against Biagini. The BoSox are only 12th in wRC+, 95, facing RHP’s away from home, but after the top ten teams, most of the league is struggling in this category. This is certainly a risky play, but Biagini provides great value for big bats, and is a great Pomeranz contrarian pick for GPPs.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks – Early
Miami Marlins vs. Junior Guerra
Junior is struggling this year, including with an injury, capping his ability to repeat his solid season from last year. Over his last four games, Guerra has given up over four runs per game.
Among all starting pitchers on the mound today, Junior has the worst SIERA, a horrendous 5.94. Guerra is giving up over two home runs per nine innings, has a high 13.5% walk rate, and low 15.7% strikeout rate.
The Marlins lineup has struggled against RHP’s at home, 21st in baseball with a 93 wRC+, but this match up should help improve those results. Stack the Marlins in Early or All Day slates.
Kansas City Royals vs. Hector Santiago
Like Guerra, Santiago’s season is off to a very rough start, and hasn’t improved through June. With a 5.51 SIERA, only Guerra has a worse result. Hector has a low 16.6% strikeout rate and high 10.2% walk rate. Santiago is also giving up over two home runs per game.
In a very similar scenario, the Royals are also struggling against RHP’s at home, or in general, this season. But they’ve had some flashes of good games, especially against bad pitching like Santiago has presented to us. The Royals and Marlins should be stacked today providing tons of point and value results for your MLB FanDuel lineups.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kevin Gausman
I’ve said it before, and he burnt me recently, when Gausman is on the mound, I immediately target the opposing hitters to stack. Kevin has a 5.23 SIERA, tied for fourth worst among all starting pitchers today.
Better than most of the bottom SIERA pitchers, Gausman only gives up 1.47 home runs per nine innings. But Kevin has a low 16.6% strike out rate, and high 10.2% walk rate. The Rays continue to struggle with strikeouts, but feast off of pitchers who have low strikeout rates, like Gausman. This is a great opportunity to own several high-priced Rays bats with other value options available today.
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play – Mid-Day
One of my favorite top pitching plays earlier in the season, James Paxton ($8,900) was injured for a good period of the first half of the season, and is climbing his way back into a dominating position. Because James is still somewhat fresh off the DL, and has struggled at times since, he’s fairly cheap at $8.9K.
While Paxton has a 34.42 MLB FanDuel point-per-game average, that is quite misleading. Paxton struggled against the Blue Jays and Rangers after coming off the DL, only eleven total points combined in the two games. Prior to the injury, James was landing over 50, and sometimes 60, MLB FanDuel points. And in the last two games, against the Tigers and Phillies, Paxton had eight and nine strikeouts, pulling his MLB FanDuel points average up, again, toward the 40’s.
Paxton’s overall metrics are rock-solid. James has a 3.76 SIERA, sixth best on the mound today, a 27.5% strikeout rate, and is only giving up 0.66 home runs per nine innings. The only concern is the 8.7% walk rate, which I expect to fall throughout the rest of the season if James stays healthy.
James is a lefty, and the Angels have the sixth worst wRC+, 81, at home against LHP’s. The Angels have a poor .332 slugging percentage in this scenario, and with Paxton throwing around eight strikeouts per game, this is a great time to plug Paxton into your lineup, for a reasonable price.
MLB FanDuel PaxtonFade – Early
If you’re nervous about Paxton’s topsy-turvy results since coming back from the DL, Kenta Maeda ($9,100) is a great Paxton Fade option mid-day today. You’re paying $200 more for Maeda, so the value isn’t as good, but you’re getting a more consistently solid pitcher for the price.
Kenta has a 3.81 SIERA, just below Paxton for seventh on the mound today. Maeda is giving up a solid 1.3 home runs per nine innings, but is fanning batters at a 24.9% rate, and has a lower 6.3% walk rate, better than Paxton. Along with a very good 1.12 WHIP, Maeda is probably one of the more underrated pitchers on the mound mid-day, and may be low owned if overlooked.
The best part about any Dodgers pitcher this weekend, is they’re pitching against the Padres in San Diego, one of the worst hitter-friendly parks in baseball. The last time Kenta pitched here during the 2017 season, he only had 36 MLB FanDuel points. But that was due to the Dodgers capping his outing to five innings, thanks to three walks, which is unlike Maeda. He had eight strikeouts in the game, and with a QS and win, could’ve had well over 50 points. I expect a better result this afternoon.
MLB FanDuel Value Play of the Day – Mid-Day
You will find Sean Manaea ($8,600) further down the top SIERA list, but not by much with a 4.03 result. Like Paxton, the knock on Manaea is the 9.4% walk rate. But Sean has only given up 0.8 home runs per nine innings, and has a great 25.4% strikeout rate.
Over the last seven starts, Manaea has seven or greater strikeouts in five games. On Memorial Day, against the Indians in Cleveland, Sean fanned nine batters, only let four people on base, grabbing the QS and win for a total of 55 MLB FanDuel points.
Facing left-handed pitchers away from home, the Braves have a very low 27.8% Hard%, as the Braves are struggling to hit the ball hard in this scenario. Against a hurler like Manaea, that could present a low base-running scenario throughout the game for the A’s defense.
The Braves are in the middle of the majors with a 98 wRC+ against LHP’s away from home, but have fallen lately. I expect Manaea to get lost among the pack of options mid-day today, providing a great value pick, with 55+ MLB FanDuel point potential, and low ownership.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks – Mid-Day
Oakland A’s vs. Julio Teheran
After looking dominate early last season, Teheran continues to have a terrible 2017 season. Julio now has a 5.30 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and only 62 strikeouts in 90 innings. Something seems off about Teheran’s approach to the plate each game.
With a 5.23 SIERA, Julio is tied with Gasuman for fourth worst among the starters on the mound today. Teheran’s biggest issue with the 1.90 home runs per nine innings. He has a lower 8.6% walk rate, at least low among the worst pitching options today, but a sub-par 15.7% strikeout rate.
The A’s are 9th in baseball with a 112 wRC+ against RHP’s in Oakland. With a 9.5% walk rate, .464 slugging percentage, and .777 OPS, the A’s are set up well to have a great offensive day against Teheran. Stack the very affordable A’s bats if you’re making any mid-day plays.
Seattle Mariners vs. Jesse Chávez
While Chavez is the only pitcher I’m recommending stacking against below a 5.00 SIERA, he’s still giving up 1.88 home runs per nine innings, sixth worst among all pitchers on the mound today. Chavez has a 7.8% walk rate, which is helping his SIERA and 1.29 WHIP, but he’s only striking out at an 18% rate.
The Mariners offense has performance well against RHP’s away from Seattle. The Mariners have a 101 wRC+, sixth best in baseball. They also have a .429 slugging percentage and .754 OPS. Along with a .312 BABIP, it’s clear the Mariners aren’t having much trouble from righties away from home. That’s a big problem for Chavez, who’s among the worst RHP’s on the mound today, but a great Mariners stacking opportunity for MLB FanDuel players.
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play – Evening
While he’s clearly the most expensive option, Max Scherzer ($12,200) is also by-far the best pitcher on the bump today. Max is the only pitcher below a 3.00 SIERA on Sunday, a 2.74 result so far. Scherzer is striking batters out at an incredible 35% pace, and only walking at a low 5.6% rate. With a 0.78 WHIP and sub-one home run per nine inning stat, Scherzer is the best option you have for an all day play today.
The Nationals lost each of the first two games against the Cardinals, in St. Louis, this series. But the Cards are entering the buzz-saw phase of the Nationals pitching staff. Max is 9-5, but should have more wins with better run support, most of the losses coming earlier in the season. In the last seven games, Max exceeded 10 strikeouts, per game, in six of seven.
In 16 starts, Scherzer has an incredible 14 quality starts, an 87.5% rate. So when Scherzer is on the mound, the match up can be somewhat irrelevant. But this afternoon, Max is facing a struggling Cardinals lineup, in the middle of the pack with a 106 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home. After tonight’s game, I expect that result to get worse. If you’re playing an all-day slate, try to find value hitting picks, because you’ll want Scherzer in your lineups.
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