MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus July 3
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column for Monday, July 3rd. Focused on the Main MLB FanDuel slate, we’ll review the top pitching play of the day, a ‘top play’ fade option, value pick, and pitchers to stack against for your MLB FanDuel lineups tonight.
With only ten MLB games scheduled for today, there’s a total of 20 pitchers on the bump. FanDuel has identified only the evening games, after 7pm EDT, as part of the ‘Main’ slate. So we’re going to narrow our search down to the eight games scheduled this evening, reviewing 16 pitchers.
Further eliminating our search down to the Top Play, a ‘Top Play Fade’ option, best value, and stacking targets, here is the list of games we’re focused on this evening:
PIT Ivan Nova at PHI Aaron Nola (7:05pm EDT)
TOR Marcus Stroman at NYY Masahiro Tanaka (7:05pm EDT)
CIN Luis Castillo at COL Jeff Hoffman (8:10pm EDT)
CHW Carlos Rodón at OAK Jharel Cotton (9:05pm EDT)
KC Ian Kennedy at SEA Andrew Moore (10:10pm EDT)
Today’s match ups aren’t as great as we’ve seen, most of, last week. There’s decent risk in each play, but that also provides plenty of opportunity. We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
As we’ll see later on, I’m fading Tanaka and Stroman for tonight’s pitchers pick, expecting a slug-fest in what I suspect will be a bad match up for both pitchers. We don’t like how Porcello is throwing this season, and I think several MLB FanDuel players may overlook the fact that Nola is pitching in Philly, and not Pittsburgh, inflating his ownership and deflating his value.
So Pirates hurler, Ivan Nova ($8,300), stuck out as the top option for the Main slate today. Ivan has struggled in his last two outings, providing only 24 and 18 MLB FanDuel points against the Brewers in Milwaukee and Rays in Pittsburgh. But, in the two games prior to that, Nova had a solid 40 points in each game, facing the Cubs and Marlins.
Nova has been up-and-down this year, providing risk with the play. But there’s risk in every play today. Ivan has a 4.48 SIERA, but low 1.11 WHIP. His strikeout rate isn’t ideal, only 13.8%, but Nova has a great 3.0% walk rate. I also like Ivan’s 0.92 home runs per nine innings, third lowest among all starters today.
What makes Nova ideal today, is the match up. The Phillies are tied with the Braves for 4th worst wRC+ in baseball, an 89 result. The Phillies have a .391 slugging percentage in this scenario, 3rd worst in baseball, and they’re facing a pitcher who’s giving up little hard contact. The Phils also have a 21.8% strikeout rate, opening the door for Nova to build up to his five to seven strikeout potential.
Again, like all pitching picks today, there’s risk. But with Nova, we’re eliminating the hitting risk, and very likely landing at least in the 35-40 MLB FanDuel point range, for a reasonable $8.3K salary. There is upside of 40+ points, and with a hitter-focused night, you have plenty of salary for big bats.
MLB FanDuel Nova Fade
If, for some reason, you’re unconvinced of Nova’s pick, there’s plenty of other options, many providing more value and really loading up salary potential at hitting.
On the surface, Jharel Cotton ($7,400) isn’t an attractive option. Cotton has a 5.02 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 71.2 innings. Jharel only has four quality starts in 13 games. But the key with this play, and like all pitcher picks today, is the match up.
Against RHP’s away from home, and in a pitcher-friendly park tonight, the Chicago White Sox have a low 85 wRC+. The White Sox have a .705 slugging percentage, 8th worst in this scenario, and terrible .297 OBP. Chicago has a low 5.6% walk rate and high 22.6% strikeout rate against RHP’s away from Chicago.
Cotton showed some strong signs of great pitching, late last season, but has disappointed most of the year, so far. Jharel is giving up 1.63 home runs per nine innings, not terrible but not ideal either. Cotton has a 9.7% walk rate, but a sold 19.9% strikeout rate.
Jharel is coming from two straight wins, one against this White Sox team, another a 38 MLB FanDuel point QS game against a great Yankees lineup. Cotton has also dominated teams like the Royals and Twins, piling up 49 points. There’s a likely 30-40 MLB FanDuel points coming out of Cotton again tonight, with 40-50 point upside on a very cheap $7.4K salary.
MLB FanDuel Value Play of the Day
I likely will get heat for this suggestion, and that may be warranted, but it’s hard to ignore the value potential in an Andrew Moore ($5,500) play tonight. Yes, Moore has only pitched in one game, a start against the Tigers. But let’s take a few minutes to discuss that result, lined up with the juicy match up Andrew has, and then ponder the big-bats potential.
One June 22nd, Moore pitched in his only game this season, a start against a very good right-handed feasting Tigers lineup. But, the Tigers struggled against Andrew, getting only six hits and three runs in seven innings. That allowed Moore to establish a quality start in his only game, along with the win. Add on four strikeouts, Andrew had 34 MLB FanDuel points on a dirt-cheap salary.
Tonight, Moore is facing a Royals lineup whose much worse than the Tigers lineup he faced in late June. Against RHP’s away from Kansas City, the Royals have a low 80 wRC+, 7th worst in baseball. The Royals have a low 6.2% walk rate and high 22.6% strikeout rate in this scenario as well.
So, on a bargain $5.5K salary, we could get 30-40 MLB FanDuel points out of Moore, with potential for 40+ points. And we now have plenty of salary to load up on hot bats from teams like the Red Sox and Yankees, or Rockies in Coors Field, who we’ll discuss next. In a hitter-friendly night like tonight, this could be your best option.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Colorado Rockies vs. Luis Castillo
Castillo has only pitched in two games this year, each difficult match ups facing the Nationals and Brewers. While Luis was able to pile up 14 strikeouts in 10.2 innings, impressive, he also gave up ten hits, eight walks, three home runs, and four runs.
Castillo can get batters to whiff, but he’s walking hitters at nearly a 20% rate and giving up more home runs per nine innings than any pitcher on the mound today. That is a terrible match up for the Reds, but ideal for Rockies hitters in Coors Field tonight. They’ll be expensive, but target the home run hitters, which are many, from the Rockies for your lineups tonight.
Seattle Mariners vs. Ian Kennedy
Kennedy is more established this season than Castillo, but that makes his numbers even more juicy for the Mariners bats tonight. Kennedy is giving up 1.94 home runs per nine innings, third worst on the mound tonight. While Ian has a decent 20.3% strikeout rate, he’s walking batter over 10% of the time.
Mariners bats are top-five against RHP’s in Seattle this season, a 120 wRC+. The Mariners have a .276 batting average, .795 OBP, and .444 slugging percentage in this scenario. The Mariners are more affordable than the Rockies bats, and have equally solid potential tonight against Kennedy.
New York Yankees vs. Marcus Stroman / Toronto Blue Jays vs. Masahiro Tanaka
With such a terrible slate of pitching tonight, I suspect many MLB FanDuel players will target Stroman or Tanaka at pitcher in their lineup, and I think that’s a big mistake. Stroman has performed horribly against the Red Sox and Yankees this season. Marcus has a total an average of 14 MLB FanDuel points-per-game against the Yankees, after two starts. Stroman will likely give up, at least, one home run in New York tonight.
While the Blue Jays aren’t a top ten hitting team in this pitching scenario, their odds get better with Tanaka on the mound. Masahiro has a decent 22.9% strikeout rate, but he’s giving up 2.08 home runs per nine innings, 2nd worst on the mound tonight just behind Kennedy. Tanaka also has a 1.40 WHIP tonight, one of the worst among all starting pitchers tonight. The Blue Jays should get several on base, and could go yard a few times, in what is shaping up to be a slug-fest in New York.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!