Welcome back for the 4th of July edition of the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This article is focused on the pitchers starting in the ‘Main’ slate only, all games starting after the 7pm EDT.
We’ll review the top pitching play of the day, a ‘top play’ fade option, value pick, and pitchers to stack against for your MLB FanDuel lineups tonight. After an action-packed 4th of July MLB schedule during the team, baseball continues this evening with five more games, and ten pitchers on the mound tonight.
All day today, we’ve seen very good pitching and hitting match ups, making for an exciting day of 4th of July baseball. The great pitching options, and hitting targets, continues into the main slate, with tons of high points potential and value at the pitcher pick. We’re going to review the majority of the pitchers scheduled to start tonight. So, here’s a look at the five games scheduled this evening:
SD Trevor Cahill at CLE Corey Kluber (7:10pm EDT)
HOU Brad Peacock at ATL Sean Newcomb (7:35pm EDT)
BOS David Price at TEX Yu Darvish (8:08pm EDT)
CIN Homer Bailey at COL Kyle Freeland (8:10pm EDT)
ARZ Patrick Corbin at LAD Clayton Kershaw (9:10pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
While most MLB FanDuel players likely would argue our fade option tonight is the better pitching play, I’m leaning more toward Corey Kluber ($12,000) due to his recent dominance and match up. Kershaw, the most expensive option tonight, and $400 more expensive than Kluber, is now averaging 46.6 MLB FanDuel points-per-game. That’s pretty impressive, but Kluber is averaging 46.1, just behind Clayton.
Even more impressive, Corey is averaging 67 per-game over the last three games, better than any other starting pitcher in that span of time. Kluber now has six 10+ strikeouts in his last eight starts. Corey typically goes at least seven innings, with a high probability of a quality start each time, and had a unique (these days) complete game in April.
Kluber currently has a 2.87 SIERA, the best of all starters today, and above Kershaw’s 3.01. Corey has a 33.4% strikeout rate and low 6.4% walk rate. Also, unlike hard-throwing dominate pitchers like Kershaw or Sherzer, Kluber is only giving up 0.90 home runs per nine innings.
Tonight, Kluber is facing the Padres, 4th worst in baseball against RHP’s away from home with a 78 wRC+. The Padres also have an astronomical 27.7% strikeout rate in this scenario, making this play even better. Kluber is a must-start tonight, even if he’s chalky. But having Kershaw on the slate helps with ownership.
MLB FanDuel Kluber Fade
Well, we’ve already mentioned his name multiple times, but in case you missed it, Clayton Kershaw ($12,400) is also one of the top pitchers on the slate tonight. If you’re concerned about Kluber ownership, or think he’s due for a bad game against a bad offense (for some reason), then Kershaw has to be your next best consideration tonight.
Clayton has a 3.01 SIERA, the second best on the mound tonight, with a 30.1% strikeout rate and incredibly low 4.6% walk rate. Kershaw’s WHIP is only 0.91, demonstrating how difficult it is to get hitters on base against Clayton. One minor knock on Kershaw, is that he’s giving up 1.32 home runs per nine innings, a concern against the Diamondbacks tonight, one of the better long-ball lineups in baseball.
But, like the Padres against RHP’s away from home, the Dbacks have been horrendous against LHP’s away from Chase Field. The Diamondbacks have a jaw-dropping terrible 45 wRC+ in this scenario, clearly the worst in baseball. They’re also striking out at a 27.6% rate against LHP’s away from Chase. The last time Clayton faced the DBacks in L.A. was in April 14th, when he fanned eight batters and piled up 56 MLB FanDuel points. You can’t go wrong with Kluber tonight, but Kershaw is also an easy sell.
MLB FanDuel Value Play of the Day
The value play tonight is very likely flying under the radar due to his return from the DL today. Trevor Cahill ($8,300) was one of the more dominate pitchers in baseball early in the year. Before his shoulder injury, Cahill was averaging over 37 MLB FanDuel points-per-game, striking out less than six and no better than nine every game. That’s incredible strikeout consistency.
Cahill now has a 3.47 SIERA coming from the DL, with a 29.5% strikeout rate. Trevor also has a very low 0.65 home runs per innings, mostly keeping the ball on the ground. The one big concern from Cahill is the 9.8% walk rate, but over time I expect his walking ratio to decline. Trevor had a few games against solid lineups like the Rockies where he let only three on base, all through hits.
While Trevor is coming from the DL, likely leading to his lower salary, he’s also facing a decent Indians offense who’s 11th in baseball against RHP’s at home. The Indians have a solid 107 wRC+, with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate. But with a .186 ISO, they’re one of the lowest in the top 15. So while there’s risk with this pick, hence the value, there’s definitely an opening for a great outing from Cahill, who was rock-solid to start this season.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Colorado Rockies vs. Homer Bailey
This one is probably obvious to most MLB FanDuel players. Bailey is averaging -8 MLB FanDuel points-per-game after two starts for the Reds. Yes, you read that correctly. In two starts, Bailey has only managed 4.2 innings, has a 27.00 ERA and a terrible 3.64 WHIP. Homer does have four strikeouts, but considering the rest of his stats, that doesn’t even matter.
The Rockies have an 80 wRC+ against RHP’s in Coors Field, somehow one of the worst in baseball. That’s incredible considering they have one of the best records in baseball and play in the top hitter-friendly park in the majors. but with Bailey on the mound, their offensive numbers should improve in this category, as he’s currently the worst pitching option in fantasy baseball.
Houston Astros vs. Sean Newcomb
Newcomb isn’t a bad pitcher. Sean has a decent 4.26 SIERA with a 21.4% strikeout rate, but a high 8.2% walk rate. Still, Newcomb is only giving up 0.37 home runs per nine innings. But the problem I have with Sean tonight is the match up.
The Astros have a 123 wRC+ against LHP’s away from home, 2nd best in baseball. With an .838 OPS, .482 slugging percentage, and .286 batting average, it’s clear the Astros have no problem hitting lefties on the road. And SunTrust Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums in baseball this season, making the Astros one of the most attractive offenses today. Yes, Newcomb is a solid pitcher, but he’s going to have a rough outing tonight.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Kyle Freeland
While we’re already targeting the Rockies hitters, they’re going to be more expensive batters. The Reds will be more expensive than that typically are, but are more affordable than Rockies or Astros bats and have a decent match up against Freeland.
Of all the pitchers on the slate tonight, Kyle has the second worst SIERA, 5.01, only better than Homer’s metrics. Freeland is only fanning batters at a 13.5% rate and walking at a high 8.8% rate. Kyle has a disgusting 1.45 WHIP, and is giving up over a home run per nine innings, which will climb today. This is the more affordable stack, among several great stacking options tonight.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
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