MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus July 5

This the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column for Wednesday, July 5th.  We are focusing on the top pitching plays, ‘top play’ fade options, value picks, and stacking targets for tonight’s ‘Main’ slate of games.

After a day full of fireworks both on and off the field, we’ll continue to see a robust MLB schedule tonight.  With three games this afternoon, we have 12 games to analyze for the Main slate tonight. That leaves us with 24 starting pitchers on the mound, and plenty of top pitching talent along with a long list of stacking targets.

While there are about four or five top pitching plays tonight, there are at least seven or eight great pitching targets for hitting-stacks.  And in-between the top plays and stacking targets, many of the pitching options are unimpressive.  So, it wasn’t too hard to narrow our options down to the following six games:

SD Luis Perdomo at CLE Trevor Bauer (7:10pm EDT)

BAL Jayson Aquino at MIL Matt Garza (7:10pm EDT)

HOU Joe Musgrove at ATL Jaime García (7:35pm EDT)

LAA Parker Bridwell at MIN Ervin Santana (8:10pm EDT)

CIN Scott Feldman at COL Jon Gray (8:40pm EDT)

ARZ Zack Godley at LAD Alex Wood (10:10pm EDT)

We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…

Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play

Yesterday, our top pitching play was Kluber, who piled up ten strikeouts in eight innings, with a quality start, and 55 MLB FanDuel points.  It’s unfortunate our value pick, Cahill, and the Padres bullpen were able to blank the Indian’s offense, because Kluber would’ve had 67 points with a win.  Still, targeting the Padres’ offense with a good RHP paid off, and I was able to win my cash games.

So it should be of little surprise that we’re excited about the Indians and Trevor Bauer ($8,700) on the hill tonight against the Padres in Cleveland.  There are a few other good options tonight, but with Bauer priced at only $8.7K, this is very likely going to be the chalky top pick of the day, and Trevor should be great for cash play.

Bauer’s 5.24 ERA is misleading, and I’m hoping it will cause many MLB FanDuelers to pause before playing him.  Trevor has a low 3.90 SIERA, fourth best among all the starting pitchers tonight. Bauer is walking hitters at a 8.6% rate, but is striking batters out with a 25.7% rate.  Trevor has a decent 1.38 WHIP, considering his walk rate, and is giving up 1.44 home runs per nine innings.  I don’t love the home run rate, but against the Padres, I’m not that concerned.

Against RHP’s away from San Diego, or really anywhere, the Padres offense is the worst in baseball.  They currently have a rock-bottom 76 wRC+, a high 28.1% strikeout rate, and low .391 slugging percentage.

While is MLB FanDuel average is much lower, Bauer has a strong case for a 50+ MLB FanDuel night on a very reasonable $8.7K salary.

MLB FanDuel Bauer Fade – Wood

While Bauer may be the best overall option tonight, there’s plenty of other great plays for Cash and GPP.  First, I’m fading deGrom, simply because he’s facing one of the best offenses in baseball, in Washington, D.C. tonight.

But the Dodgers and Diamondbacks match up has two very intriguing pitching options.  Starting with Dodgers southpaw, Alex Wood ($9,400).  Wood has arguably been the Dodgers top pitcher this season.  Alex may not have the strikeout dominance as Kershaw does, but his giving up only 0.24 home runs per nine innings, well below Clayton’s rate, has a 0.91 WHIP, 1.83 ERA, and 2.78 SIERA, one of the best in baseball.

Alex had a slow start to the season, but lately is a slam-dunk for 45+ MLB FanDuel points-per-game.  There are two risks with this pick.  First, the Dodgers are welcoming the Diamondbacks into L.A. against today, and the DBacks have Godley on the mound, which we’ll get to in a minute.  The DBacks have some solid bats, but they’ve been mostly silent in Los Angeles this week.  So the real quick is, can Wood pile up over 50 points, without a win, in the case Godley performs as well as he normally does away from Chase Field?  Wood is a better value than deGrom tonight, but I’m more intrigued by Godley’s value.

MLB FanDuel Bauer Fade – Godley

Zack Godley ($8,300) has only pitched 64 innings this season, but he has a very low 0.97 WHIP, 2.67 ERA, and a decent 23.9% strikeout rate.  Godley’s SIERA is 3.78, worse than Wood’s, but keep in mind that Zack has to pitch in Chase Field around 50% of his starts.  That’s a very impressive metric considering his ballpark locations.

The Dodgers have one of the best lineups against RHP’s at home, but they’re striking out at a 22.8% rate, so Zack has a decent shot at landing around his 7-8 K average.  If Godley can continue to keep his WHIP low tonight, and pitch another quality start, he has eight in ten starts, you’re getting 45+ MLB FanDuel points for only $8.3K, a bargain.  For GPP plays tonight, Zack is a fantastic play.  For Cash plays tonight, Godley is risky.

MLB FanDuel Value Play of the Day

Likely buried in the MLB FanDuel headlines today will be Jon Gray ($6,400).  Jon suffered a foot injury on April 13th, and has been on the disabled list until his last start on June 30th.  Prior to that start, Gray was struggling to start the season, averaging around 15 MLB FanDuel points-per-game and avoiding a quality start in each of his first three outings.

However, in a hitter-friendly Chase Field on June 30th, Gray returned to the mound to face a tough Diamondbacks lineup, lasting six innings, giving up seven hits but only one walk, and striking out ten batters.  Along with the win and first quality start of the season, Jon was able to pile up 52 MLB FanDuel points, a tremendous value.

But tonight, Jon is facing a Reds lineup who took Freeland for several long rides last night in Coors Field.  So it’s very likely Gray will be overlooked tonight, which is a mistake.  As we’ve written about several times last year, Gray is actually better at Coors Fields.  That may have been why he had no trouble pitching at Chase Field.  Jon seems to excel in poor pitching situations, like tonight. So if Gray stays on course tonight, we could be in for over 50 MLB FanDuel points on a basement-bargain price of only $6.4K, allowing us to load up on expensive hitting options, and the potential for a huge GPP pay-day.

Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs. Parker Bridwell

For some reason, Target Field, in Minnesota, has suddenly become a hitter’s park, and the Twins are climbing the wRC+ standings this season.  Against RHP’s at home, the Twins have a high 10.5% walk rate, .762 OPS, and solid .428 slugging percentage.  Tonight, they’re facing what looks like one of the worst starting pitchers on the mound, so we can expect the Twins offensive numbers to be on the higher-end of their average.

Birdwell has a terrible 12.3% strikeout rate.  Coupled with the Twins high walk rate, we can expect them to be on the base-path often tonight.  Also, Parker has a high 2.3 home runs per nine innings average, one of the highest among all starting pitchers today.  So we can expect a few home runs, and plenty of RBI’s.  This should be a high runs event for the Twins, and stacking affordable bats in Minnesota is worth it tonight.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jayson Aquino

With only three pitching events from Aquino, we don’t know much about Jayson.  But we do not, so far he’s only striking out batters at a 15% rate, and walking hitters at the same rate.  Aquino is also giving up nearly four home runs per nine innings, a very terrible start, but fantastic for the Brewers, whose bats have been hot lately.

Shaw should be back in the lineup, again, tonight and is a great value at only $3.8K.  Practically every other Brewer hitter is very affordable, providing great value in this stack tonight.

Atlanta Braves vs. Joe Musgrove

Sticking with the theme of affordable stacks, I’m looking at the Braves tonight.  I also like this stack for GPP’s.  After the Astros destroyed the Braves arms in SunTrust Field last night, I suspect most MLB FanDuel players will continue to focus on the Braves.  Tonight, I think that’s a mistake.

While Musgrove has had some decent outings to start the season, his performance nose-dived in June.  Joe currently has a horrible 6.01 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and high 1.87 home runs per nine innings, all major red-flags when pitching in a hitter-friendly park like SunTrust Field.  In fact, this is exactly the type of pitching I was targeting when suggesting the Astros’ stack last night.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!