MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus July 6

Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column.  This is the Thursday, July 6th edition, focused on the MLB FanDuel Main slate, this evening, only.

With seven games on the MLB schedule for tonight’s Main slate, we have 14 pitchers to consider for our lineups.  However, like last night, the game in Washington, D.C. has the potential for postponement.  There’s still a chance they’ll get the game in, but to be safe, we’re going to avoid the game all together, with plenty of other great options to choose from.

For tonight, we have a very obvious top play we’ll review, two great ‘top play’ fade options, a value pick, and four stacking targets for hitting.  For the hitting stacks, we’re looking for cheap and expensive options, so you know who to target depending on your pitching plays.  Here’s a look at the seven games on the schedule for this evening: 

ATL Mike Foltynewicz at WSH Gio González (7:05pm EDT)

HOU Lance McCullers Jr. at TOR Francisco Liriano (7:07pm EDT)

BOS Chris Sale at TB Jacob Faria (7:10pm EDT)

SD Dinelson Lamet at CLE Josh Tomlin (7:10pm EDT)

BAL Dylan Bundy at MIN Jose Berríos (8:10pm EDT)

OAK Paul Blackburn at SEA Sam Gaviglio (10:10pm EDT)

ARZ Robbie Ray at LAD Rich Hill (10:10pm EDT)

We’ll start with the top pitching play of the day…

Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play

It will be hard for anyone to make a solid case to fade Chris Sale ($11,800) today, other than salary.  But even for $11.8K, Sale should be highly owned tonight, and should be in your cash lineups if you want to win.  Chris is simply too good to avoid, and has a great match up.

With 120.2 innings now in the bag for Sale, he still has a low 2.61 ERA, and 2.60 SIERA, the lowest of all pitchers on the mound today, and one of the lowest in baseball this season.  Chris has an incredible 35.5% strikeout rate, along with a very low 4.7% walk rate.  With a .195 batting average and 0.90 WHIP, hitters are frustrated with Chris, unable to get on base.

Sale now has 15 quality starts in 17 games, and of the two QS misses, he still had 33 and 42 MLB FanDuel points, due to wins and high strikeout rate.  The later is why we like Chris so much against the Rays.  Tampa has hit lefties well at home, but they have one of the highest overall strikeout rates in baseball, and 22.7% in this scenario.

Sale has faced Tampa twice already, fanning 12 batters in each outing and piling up 58 and 64 MLB FanDuel points.  Chris is a must play tonight, and there are affordable stacking options we’ll get to later.

MLB FanDuel Bauer Fade – McCullers

There are only two problems playing Sale tonight.  Chris will be chalky, easily gaining the highest ownership, especially in cash leagues.  Also, Sale is facing a very good Faria, who could challenge Chris for the 12 MLB FanDuel point win.  With those concerns in mind, there are two picks I like when fading Sale.

Lance McCullers Jr. ($9,400) only has two quality starts in his five games, but he has eight strikeouts in four of the last five, only getting six in his last outing against a very good Yankees lineup.  Lance was arguably more dominant earlier in the season, but seems to be regaining his composure on the mound.

McCullers has a 2.98 SIERA, along with Sale the only pitchers on the hill tonight below 3.00.  Lance has a high 29.1% strikeout rate, decent 1.07 WHIP, and low 0.62 home runs per nine innings.  Also, the Blue Jays have a 90 wRC+, sixth worst in baseball, so this is a great match up for McCullers.

MLB FanDuel Bauer Fade – Berrios

Robbie Ray ($9,300) is worth a consideration, even against the Dodgers in Los Angeles.  Ray typically pitches better away from Chase Field.  But I like the match up Jose Berríos ($9,300) has against the Orioles more.

In ten starts, Berrios is now 7-2 with a solid 3.44 ERA.  Jose has a 3.95 SIERA, with a 24.6% strikeout rate.  Jose is giving up 1.10 home runs per nine innings, slightly better than Ray’s 1.17. Also, while Ray has a juicy 31% strikeout rate, he also has a terrible 11.6% walk rate, in comparison to Berrios’ 7.2% walk rate.

With a low 6.1% walk rate and high 24.2% strikeout rate against RHP’s away from Camden Yards, the Orioles are set up poorly against Berrios in Target Field.  Baltimore also only has a 90 wRC+, tied with the Braves for 13th worst in baseball.  If you’re looking to save another $100, instead of McCullers, I would pick Berrios over Ray.

MLB FanDuel Value Play of the Day

There are some great top pitching options today, but many are somewhat expensive.  The cheaper options present too much risk, with the exception of Jacob Faria ($8,300) and Dinelson Lamet ($8,400).

I would typically love Faria on the mound any night, but I’m worried about the Red Sox hot bats, and the lack of a win due to the match up with Sale.  Still, in five starts, Jake is averaging over 43 MLB FanDuel points-per-game, and is striking out five to nine hitters each outing.  So, Faria is a solid contrarian play for GPP’s tonight.

But for a true value play, I like Lamet the most.  Since his first start in late May, Dinelson has been one of my favorite value picks he time he’s on the mound.  Lamet is averaging 32.1 MLB FanDuel points-per-game, but that average is misleading.  Dinelson had a rough -3 points in a start against the Diamondbacks, in Chase Field, with the roof open.  He failed to follow that game up with well a 12 point result against Kansas City, in San Diego.  Those games aside, he’s averaging well over 40 points against decent lineups, like the Cubs, Brewers, Mets, and Tigers.

While Lamet has a worrisome 1.95 home runs per nine innings, I again think that’s mostly due to the Chase Field outing, and will drop over time.  Dinelson has a 3.22 SIERA, third best of all pitchers on the mound tonight, with the second highest strikeout rate, 32.1%, and 7.1% walk rate. Lamet’s 1.11 WHIP is also solid.

As we’ve seen over the last two days, Perdomo and Cahill were able to quiet the Indians’ bats in Cleveland.  Lamet should be able to replicate those outcomes, but with more strikeouts.  This is a great value play today, and should have lower ownership than the top three or four options tonight.

Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks

There are several great stacking targets on the mound today, and we’ll start the first two with value plays.  With so many great, but expensive, pitching options on the mound tonight, we’ll need to target high value and low salary first.

San Diego Padres vs. Josh Tomlin

This almost seems like a contrarian play.  The Padres aren’t hitting well against RHP’s away from home.  In fact, they’re the worst lineup in baseball in this scenario.  But as we saw yesterday, the Padres were able to pile up 13 hits and six runs, even though they had 12 strikeouts.

And with a 1.49 WHIP, low 17% K rate, and high 1.78 home runs per nine innings, Tomlin is the best match up for the Padres lineup in this series.  They’ll be a cheap, but valuable, stacking option tnoight.

Oakland A’s vs. Sam Gaviglio

Gaviglio has a decent 1.20 WHIP, but Sam is giving up around two home runs per nine innings, has a 7.7% walk rate, and terrible 14.9% strikeout rate.  With a 95 wRC+, the A’s are actually in the top twelve in run production against RHP’s away from Oakland.  The A’s have a .415 slugging percentage and .732 OPS in this scenario, making for another affordable and high value stacking option.

Minnesota Twins vs. Dylan Bundy

Remember Bundy’s strong start to the season?  Well, that seems to have ended harshly.  Dylan has given up 18 runs in his last four starts, in only 20.1 innings.  Bundy has a decent 19% strikeout rate, but his 1.57 home runs per nine innings is climbing toward two per game.  Bundy has a 4.87 SIERA, third worst tonight, and is facing a hot Twins lineup in a, suddenly, hitter-friendly Target Field.  They’re more expensive, but worth a stack consideration, even if a two-player mini stack.

Houston Astros vs. Francisco Liriano

The Astros are expensive tonight, but if you’re going with a value play at pitcher, stack the ‘Stros’ in Toronto.  Liriano is on the mound for the Blue Jays, and is walking 12% of the batters he faces, the worst rate on the mound tonight.  Francisco has a terrible 1.61 WHIP and the worst SIERA tonight, at 5.02.

The Astros are hot, coming from SunTrust Field were they smacked the Braves arms around the field.  They should stay hot tonight, with Liriano likely not lasting more than four to five innings, and a struggling bullpen.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!