After posting the worst record in baseball through the first half of the season, the Philadelphia Phillies are sure to be sellers at the MLB trade deadline.
The rebuilding Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2017 season optimistic about taking another step forward toward contention. Instead, the season has been a complete disaster. Entering play Friday, the Phillies have the worst record in the big leagues, 28-56, which is 4.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants (34-53) for the honor, and 21.5 games behind the Washington Nationals in the American League East.
Top offseason acquisitions, pitcher Clay Buchholz and outfielder Michael Saunders, did not pan out. Valuable infielder Cesar Hernandez got hurt, and promising young players Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph and Odubel Herrera have not progressed as well as the Phillies would have hoped. Herrera, an elite defender and 2016 All-Star signed through 2021, made headlines because Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt inserted Herrera into a conversation about whether or not winning teams can be built around non-native English speakers.
Buchholz is one of several pitchers sidelined for a significant amount of time by injury. Acquired from the Red Sox over the winter, Buchholz lasted just two starts before suffering a potentially season ending forearm injury. Fellow rotation mates Jared Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez and reliever Casey Fien are also currently on the disabled list.
Saunders was released after hitting .205/.257/.360 with six home runs in 61 games, and the Phillies also made a quick decision to get rid of reliever Jeanmar Gomez, who entered the season as the closer, was released after posting a 7.25 ERA in 22.1 innings across 18 appearances.
The quick triggers make a certain amount of sense, especially since the Phillies established themselves as non-contenders very early in the season. After a decent showing in April, Philadelphia found itself 10 games out of first place in the AL East by May 16, suffered through a disastrous 6-21 month of May and posted a 9-17 record in June. With a little less than half a season left, it’s important to evaluate the players whose long-term futures are with the club, and to shop the veterans on short-term contracts that have some value to contending clubs.
As the MLB trade deadline approaches, we take a look at five trades the Phillies should make to reverse the troubling negative momentum of the first three months of the season, and continue to build for 2018 and beyond.
Needs
Right Field
The Phillies thought they had their right fielder of the future when they signed Saunders to a $9 million contract for 2017 with a club option for 2018, but decided to cut their losses after the 30-year-old hit .205/.257/.360 in 61 games. There are several outfielders in the Philadelphia farm system nearing MLB readiness, so right field isn’t a major issue in the long term, but is a definite weak spot at the moment.
Closer
Last place teams don’t need top-notch closers, so this is more of a long-term problem for the Phillies. While Hector Neris hasn’t been terrible for the club, having posted a 3.22 ERA with seven saves in 37 games this season, he’s probably not the long-term answer for the club in the ninth inning.
Assets
Baseball Prospectus Organizational Talent Ranking: 5
MLB.com Top 100 Prospects: 4
MLB.com Top 10 Prospects
- P.J. Crawford, SS
- Mickey Moniak, OF
- Jorge Alfaro, C
- Sixto Sanchez, RHP
- Nick Williams, OF
- Franklyn Kilome, RHP
- Roman Quinn, OF
- Kevin Gowdy, RHP
- Dylan Cozens, OF
- Cornelius Randolph, OF
The Phillies have a good farm system, and some of the club’s top prospects are close to the major leagues. Catcher Jorge Alfaro made his big league debut in 2016, and J.P. Crawford, the No. 4 overall prospect in baseball according o MLB.com, is in Triple-A.
Though Crawford’s stats have been disappointing this year (he’s hit .214/.329/.327 in 71 games), he’s still likely to make it to Philadelphia sooner rather than later. Nick Williams, is on the active roster in Philadelphia, and Roman Quinn and Dylan Cozens are both at Triple-A and could reach the bigs this year as well.
As a rebuilding team with the worst record in the majors, the Phillies are highly unlikely to trade away prospects, and will therefore concentrate on adding talent to the minor league level while clearing veterans (especially those in the final year of their contracts) to create more playing time for younger players.
Trade Daniel Nava to the Royals
Phillies outfielder Daniel Nava isn’t a sexy name, and frankly never has been. Undrafted out of college, Nava played independent league baseball until he caught the attention of Red Sox scouts in 2007. The switch-hitter made his MLB debut with the Red Sox in 2010 at the age of 27. Nava has a modest .265/.356/.378 career slash, and has carved out a nice seven-year big league career as a serviceable corner outfielder – typically as a fourth or fifth option – with some pop at the plate.
In his first season in Philadelphia (his fifth major league franchise), Nava has capitalized on inconsistent playing time. In 57 games, the 34-year-old has hit .303/.397/.417 with three home runs (two coming on his first two at bats with the club) and 14 RBI, and has drawn 20 walks in 156 plate appearances – giving him a 0.8 fWAR (Wins Above Replacement, according to FanGraphs) through Thursday.
A left fielder primarily, Nava can also play right and has seen limited action at first base. He’s a useful pinch hitter, and can give an everyday player a day off at one of the three positions without the team suffering a huge drop off in production. Therefore, several MLB teams are likely to enquire about adding Nava to their bench.
Among those that make the most sense are the Royals (with whom Nava played nine games last season), the Rockies, and the Nationals – all of whom rank among the bottom 10 clubs in left field fWAR this season. He’s not likely to bring back much more than a low level prospect, but the Phillies should give their younger outfielders an opportunity to show what they’ve got at the major league level, and should therefore be willing to part with Nava cheaply.