MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus July 8 Early
By Matt Rogers
Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. This is the Saturday, July 8th edition, with a focus on the ‘Very Early’ and ‘Early Only’ MLB FanDuel slates.
As we’ve seen recently, MLB FanDuel is providing three main slates on Saturday. The ‘Very Early’ slate provides the first set of games starting around 1pm EDT, but limited the schedule to only games before 4pm EDT. The ‘Early Only’ slate is a little more robust, offering options from the mid-afternoon time-slots, or games starting after 4pm EDT and before 7pm EDT.
PLAY FANDUEL: New users win first contest or get credited up to $120!
We’re going to review the top pitching options (which present value as well), ‘top pitching fade’ choices, and stacking options for the two early slates today. With seven games on the MLB Schedule before 7pm EDT today, we have 14 pitchers to pick through. Here’s a look at the first half of the MLB schedule today:
Very Early Only
MIL Brent Suter at NYY Luis Severino (1:05pm EDT)
HOU Mike Fiers at TOR Marcus Stroman (1:07pm EDT)
BAL Wade Miley at MIN Adalberto Mejía (2:10pm EDT)
Early Only
ATL Julio Teheran at WSH Stephen Strasburg (4:05pm EDT)
SD Jhoulys Chacin at PHI Aaron Nola (4:05pm EDT)
BOS Rick Porcello at TB Alex Cobb (4:10pm EDT)
NYM Zack Wheeler at STL Adam Wainwright (4:10pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play of the Very Early Only slate…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play – Very Early Only
Each of our top plays for the first half of the MLB Schedule may seem contrarian, but after reviewing the pitching metrics compared to the advanced hitting metrics match ups, it becomes obvious the top pitchers are buried further in the salary list, presenting fantastic value options this afternoon.
The Houston Astros are back in Toronto for a 1:07pm EDT match up with the Blue Jays. While Stroman is on the mound, he’s facing one of the best lineups in baseball. The more intriguing option, is Astros right-handed hurler, Mike Fiers ($7,900).
Fiers is actually fourth among all starting pitchers this early afternoon, with a 4.90 SIERA. That isn’t impressive, and it’s mostly due to his 1.85 home runs per nine innings and 1.31 WHIP. But Mike is also striking batters out at a 21.6% rate, and Fiers averaged around seven strikeouts per game in June, followed by a solid seven K outing against the Yankees, over four innings.
Severino and Suter are also on the mound this early afternoon, but neither pitcher has a great match up, and each are struggling on the mound. Fiers is facing a Blue Jays team currently seventh worst in baseball against RHP’s at home. While Mike has a 26.4 MLB FanDuel point average, he’s been landing closer to a 40 point average over his last five starts. Fiers is our favorite pitcher to start your day on MLB FanDuel, today.
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play – Early Only
Yes, we know Strasburg is on the mound against the Braves today, and we’ll get to that later. But it’s really hard to ignore the MLB FanDuel results from Aaron Nola ($8,900) lately. Also, Nola and the Phillies have a very good match up in Philadelphia this afternoon.
After an up-and-down start to the season, Nola has leveled off around 50+ MLB FanDuel points-per-game over the last three games. While Aaron was averaging around six strikeouts per game in the earlier part of the year, he’s had eight or more strikeouts in the last three starts. Those games include match ups against and improving Cardinals and Pirates offense, and touch match up against the Mariners in Seattle. So Nola is becoming an intriguing fantasy option.
Among all starting pitchers for the ‘Early Only’, or mid-afternoon, slate, Nola has the second best SIERA, 3.93, not to far behind Strasburg. Aaron has kept his home run rate down to one per nine innings, and has a solid 1.23 WHIP. Nola also has a 24.1% strikeout rate, also the second best on the mound this afternoon.
The Phillies welcomed the Padres into Philadelphia and lost a low scoring 3-4 match up last night. Today, the Padres lineup will struggle against the hot pitching from Nola. When facing RHP’s away from home, San Diego has a 28.2% strikeout rate and low 6.3% walk rate. With a 76 wRC+, they’re tied for the worst run production, against RHP’s away from home, in baseball. This is a fantastic time to pick Nola for your lineups, with a very reasonable $8.9K and the potential for 50 to 60 MLB FanDuel points.
MLB FanDuel Top Play Fade Option – Very Early Only
I don’t like the match up with the Brewers, and Luis Severino ($9,300) has struggled on the mound lately, which landed us with Fiers as our top play. But we can’t ignore Severino’s metrics, and some of his match ups have skewed his results lately.
Over the last five games, Luis has two 50+ MLB FanDuel point games. Unfortunately, he also has three sub-25 point games logged as well. In two of those games, against the A’s and Angels, Severino has little excuse, the match up was ideal. But most recently, July 2nd, Severino had a very tough match up against the Astros in Houston. We can toss out that result, as most pitchers would struggle in that scenario.
What we can’t ignore about Severino is the 28% strikeout rate, and low 6.1% walk rate. Luis is also giving up a hair under one homer run per nine innings, and has the best SIERA in the early part of the afternoon, 3.27. The only problem is the Brewers are tenth in baseball against RHP’s away from home. So Severino has another difficult match up. Still, if you’re unconvinced with Fiers, Luis is your man.
MLB FanDuel Top Play Fade Option – Early Only
The other obvious play for the mid-afternoon slate is Stephen Strasburg ($10,800). If Nola wasn’t on the mound, and as hot as he’s been lately, I’d easily pick Stephen as my top pick of the late afternoon. I may even use him in a second lineup, he’ll just limit my hitting options.
Strasburg has a 3.47 SIERA, the best among the mid-afternoon hurlers. Stephen also has a high 28.6% strikeout rate and low 6.9% walk rate. Strasburg is giving up less than one home run per nine innings this year, and improvement from earlier years, and has a low 1.08 WHIP.
The Braves have been a mediocre team facing RHP’s away from SunTrust Field this season, and against Strasburg they should struggle to gain much run production. Someone like Freeman could get a hold of a pitch and take it over the fence, but given the way Strasburg has pitched this season, it’s unlikely. If you’re unconvinced with Nola, and want high-K upside, Stephen is your best pick this afternoon.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks – Very Early Only
Baltimore Orioles vs. Adalberto Mejía and Minnesota Twins vs. Wade Miley
In short, we should stack the Orioles vs. Twins game for our hitting options. Mejia is having an awful year, currently with a 5.15 SIERA, along with Miley who’s not far away of Adalberto with a 4.95 SIERA.
They’re each striking out less than 20% of the hitters they face, and walking 11%+ of the batters. Each starter is giving up well more than one home run per nine innings, and has a very bad 1.5+ WHIP. In Target Field, the Twins are a better option, they’ve been more productive in this scenario. But this should be a high-scoring game, with both teams piling on runs.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks – Early Only
Washington Nationals vs. Julio Teheran
The Nationals are generally expensive, especially when hitting right-handers in Nats Park. In this scenario, the Nationals have a 122 wRC+, only behind the Astros and Yankees, and not by much. The Nats have a .299 batting average against RHP’s in D.C., with a .505 slugging percentage and .869 OPS.
Teheran has been struggling all season, currently with a 5.20 SIERA, the worst on the mound this afternoon. Julio is giving up 1.87 home runs per nine innings, also the worst of any pitcher in the first seven games today. If you have Nola at pitcher, you can easily afford to stack the Nats, and should be in for a good pay-day.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!