MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus July 8 Main

Welcome back to the Main Slate edition of the Saturday, July 8th MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column.  We’ll identify the top plays, along with several value picks, and stacking targets for your MLB FanDuel lineups tonight.

With seven games already in the bag by 7pm EDT, there are eight games remaining, or 16 pitchers to pick through for tonight’s MLB FanDuel ‘Main’ slate.  While there are several good pitching options, and expensive pitchers, we’re going to lean toward value today, with some intriguing options on the board.

As we dive though the metrics, keep in mind there are some good pitcher on the mound tonight who have bad match ups, so we’re fading them.  Also, among all the pitching options tonight, practically everyone has some weakness.  So it was difficult to pinpoint the best pitchers, but that opens the due to great value and some expensive stacking for offense.

Here’s the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:

KC Ian Kennedy at LAD Brandon McCarthy (7:15pm EDT)

DET Justin Verlander at CLE Mike Clevinger (7:15pm EDT)

LAA Jesse Chávez at TEX Tyson Ross (9:05pm EDT)

CHW Jose Quintana at COL Jeff Hoffman (9:10pm EDT)

CIN Luis Castillo at ARZ Taijuan Walker (10:10pm EDT)

We’ll start with the top pitching play of the Main slate…

Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play – Main Slate

In a bizarre set of options and match ups for tonight’s MLB FanDuel Main slate, I have a bizarre target as a top play.  At the start of this season, I never thought I’d ever consider Mike Clevinger ($7,600) as a viable option for MLB FanDuel plays, but here we are tonight.

Arrieta is on the mound tonight against the Pirates, in Chicago.  I suspect many MLB FanDuel players will be all over him, but he’s not pitching well lately.  Averaging only 26.3 MLB FanDuel points-per-game, Jake has already faced the Pirates in this same scenario, and only got us 23 points, over 5.2 innings.

While Arrieta still has a decent K rate, 24%, he has a SIERA over 4, like many of the options tonight. Samardzija has been struggling to get wins with no run support, and has a decent match up tonight.  And Verlander has struggled all season, rarely worth his salary.  While Walker prevents home runs, he still has a high 1.34 WHIP, and low K rate.

So, we’re down to Mike, who surprisingly has the second highest strikeout rate among all the pitchers on the mound tonight, 28.4%.  Mike also has a low 1.19 WHIP, which is impressive considering his concerning 13.1% walk rate.  But Mike is also only giving up 1.17 home runs per nine innings, and really his walks is the only concern.

If you’re worried about Detroit in Cleveland tonight, keep mind Clevinger had seven strikeouts and 46 MLB FanDuel points against the Tigers, in Detroit, in his last outing.  So on a $7.6K salary, Clevinger has a solid shot at hitting 50 points tonight, a significantly better return opportunity than any other pitcher on the list.

MLB FanDuel Top Value Play – Main Slate

While we started with a top play and salary of only $7.6K, I thought it may be difficult to find value picks beyond Clevinger, but lo and behold, we have several.

Jeff Hoffman ($6,600) has been a favorite target of mine over the last month.  Sure, Jeff struggled against the Giants and Diamondbacks in Colorado, but at least the DBacks outing would be expected from many MLB pitchers in Coors Field.  Prior to those games, Hoffman had a 49 MLB FanDuel point game, and two 50+ plus games.

We haven’t seen that much dominance from Hoffman over the last two weeks, but we’ve still seen strong pitching, and two-straight quality starts.  Over the last two games, against the Giants in San Francisco and Reds in Coors Field, Hoffman averaged five strikeouts per game, and an ERA of .379 over 13.2 innings.

Jeff now as a 23.9% strikeout rate, along with a solid 6.9% walk rate.  Hoffman is only giving up 0.91 home runs per nine innings, which is very impressive considering most of his games are pitched in Coors Field.  Hoffman also has a low 1.14 WHIP, along with a solid 4.08 SIERA, one of the best on the mound tonight.

Along with a juicy match up against the White Sox, visiting Coors Field, risking only $6.6K on Hoffman tonight allows you to really load up on bats, while still getting around 40 MLB FanDuel points with the pitcher pick.

MLB FanDuel: Another Value Play – Main Slate

To continue with the bizarre set of conclusions at the pitcher pick tonight, along with the tremendous amount of value options, we’ll next look at Luis Castillo ($6,900), whose pitching against a very good Diamondbacks team in Arizona.

Two of the biggest concerns we have with Luis is the 2.76 home runs per nine innings and high 12.3% walk rate.  Against a robust lineup like the Diamondbacks, in their own hitter-friendly park, this should cause most MLB FanDuel players to pause before playing Castillo.

However, the upside with the Castillo play is tremendous.  Luis has a 30.1% strikeout rate heading into this match up, the highest of any other pitcher on the mound tonight.  While Luis is only pitching around 5.2 innings per game, he’s striking out batters at a seven-plus rate.  That’s incredible return.  If the Reds leave Castillo on the mound for a quality start tonight, he could approach 60 MLB FanDuel points on a very cheap $6.9K salary.

So while there’s plenty of risk with this play, for GPP tournaments, this could be an incredible ROI opportunity.

Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks

Texas Rangers vs. Jesse Chávez

Chevez is struggling to fan many hitters this season, currently at a 17.8% rate, along with a high 7.9% walk rate.  Also, Jesse has a high 1.34 WHIP, along with a high 1.78 home run rate per nine innings.  All of these metrics spells trouble for Chavez and the Angels in a park the Rangers have hit well in lately.  The Rangers should be an affordable stack, and is a great match for an expensive hitting stack along with one of our value pitchers.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Ian Kennedy

While Kennedy has a better strikeout rate than Chevez, 20.8%, he has a higher 10.5% walk rate. Ironically, Ian also has an identical 1.78 home runs per nine innings to Jesse’s rate.  Kennedy does keep up a low .199 batting average against him, and he has a decent 1.16 WHIP.  But throughout the season, Ian has walked too many batters and given up too big hits with runners on base, inflating his SIERA to 4.91, even with a solid WHIP.

When facing RHP’s at home, the Dodgers have a 120 wRC+, only behind the Yankees, Astros, and Nationals.  That’s very good offensive company this season.  Also, the Dodgers are crushing the ball in this scenario, with a 37% Hard%.  Along with a .810 OPS, I suspect the Dodgers will pile up runs on Kennedy’s high walk and hard-hitting rate.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!