NBA Free Agency Recap, Part II: Neophyte deals still filing in

A plateauing salary cap and existential dread at the hand of the Warriors have chilled the league out a little during the 2017 NBA free agency period. Not so many wild, obviously silly deals have been handed out by teams who ought to prioritize future flexibility. Similarly, players have not been so lucratively rewarded for their accomplishments as they were in the summer of 2016.

However, it’s a transaction game over everything in this league. A quick recap can help us keep track of the craziness.

The players I will focus on in this space are the NBA’s neophytes. The majority are coming off of their rookie deals, meaning most are restricted free agents. They are the players who will be foundational, mostly cheap pieces for championship contenders over the next several years. A contender is not built in one summer, but by counting each piece along the way, the final product can look much clearer.

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Not all of these players earn $100 million at age 22, but stud rotation players are just as important to a title run as those superstars. I will provide recaps of these signings every few days including reactions, future implications and maybe a little scouting as well.

Bojan Bogdanovic — 28-years-old — Unrestricted FA

Agreed to join the Indiana Pacers for 2 years/$21 million

In order to maintain some semblance of financial flexibility going forward, the Wizards were forced to renounce Bogdanovic this summer. That left him available as one of the best shooters on the market, with the upside of size and flexibility between the wing positions. He won’t help Indiana’s defense much, but their moves this summer stand out as attempts to tread water until next summer, when they might have a better idea of how their roster works.

After trading Paul George to Oklahoma City, the Pacers are looking at Myles Turner and Victor Oladipo as their core. Bogdanovic and the recently signed Darren Collison will merely add veteran talent to that young tandem (and Lance Stephenson) as the Pacers try to take advantage of a weakened Eastern Conference and show their fans that this is still a playoff team.

Bogdanovic is a known commodity. He is a career 37 percent 3-point shooter who rarely gets to the line or makes plays for his teammates. He is a dangerously impact-less defender. To the Pacers, that player is worth $10 million per year, I guess.

Michael Carter-Williams — 25-years-old — Unrestricted FA

Agreed to join the Charlotte Hornets for 1 year/$2.7 million

It’s hard to take issue with a one-year deal for a high draft pick coming off his rookie deal. The Hornets needed a lot of depth in the backcourt, and nabbing MCW on the cheap gets them part of the way there. The real problem is that it’s hard to understand Charlotte’s plan at the guard spots.

They are entering Year Two of a post-Jeremy Lin world, desperate for Kemba Walker protection. No. 11 pick Malik Monk is a dangerous offensive point guard prospect, and has said in interviews that Clifford will be leaning on him as a ball-handler this year. Carter-Williams basically cannot play off the ball, so unless he is playing quite a bit with Walker and the starters, his role is cloudy. Putting Monk on the court, even as a rookie, seems like the higher upside play.

Yet the Hornets stayed under the tax line with this move, while still getting an upside backup. It will be worth monitoring in camp how the rotation looks.

Tim Hardaway Jr. — 25-years-old — Restricted FA

Agreed to join/return to New York Knicks for 4 years/$71 million

Regardless of how well he plays, the Knicks will be over-paying Hardaway for the next four seasons. With an aggressive attitude after the first big chips had fallen, the Knicks set out to acquire Hardaway. Their offer sheet featured the same fun as Brooklyn’s for Porter: salary payments up front, a trade kicker and a rising salary structure. But it was more than the market called for.

After Gordon Hayward, Jrue Holiday, Otto Porter and other big maximum salary fish had been signed, there were simply not enough teams with room to sign Hardaway to push his price where his people wanted it. Sure, the Hawks were interested in retaining him, and maybe a team like the Heat or Nets might have swooped in unexpectedly. But if the Hawks were worried about giving him $15 million per season, it’s difficult to imagine who but the Knicks might have given him $17 million.

The Knicks also risk losing Hardaway just as Joakim Noah’s contract expires in 2020. That would put them in a situation where Frank Ntilikina and their next couple first-round picks are entering their prime right as Hardaway can dip back into free agency at age 28. Steve Mills and the Knicks really whiffed on this one.

Kelly Olynyk — 26-years-old — Unrestricted FA

Agreed to join Miami Heat for 4 years/$50 million

Olynyk fits an archetype that Erik Spoelstra clearly values. Not coincidentally, Olynyk’s arrival in Miami comes at the same time that Chris Bosh is being waived and Josh McRoberts is being traded. The versatile, skilled big man slot will be filled for the Heat next year instead by Olynyk.

Mr. Game Seven arrives on the back of an impressive postseason run in which he earned Celtics head coach Brad Stevens’ trust more than ever before and helped lead Boston to the Conference Finals. The combination of he and Al Horford in the frontcourt was nearly impossible to guard throughout the playoffs, as team’s struggled to deal with the combined triple-threat abilities of their big men.

Olynyk arrives on a roster with offense to spare, one which will need defense out of him. He has proven to be versatile on offense and is tall enough to be a rim protector, but has slow feet and average length. It will be interesting to see how he fits next to the pieces already in place for the Heat, such as Hassan Whiteside,  James Johnson and Goran Dragic.

Otto Porter — 24-years-old — Restricted FA

Will return to the Washington Wizards for 4 years/ $104 million

After signing Bradley Beal to a maximum extension last summer, the Wizards were forced to pay top dollar for Porter after the Nets signed the young wing to a max offer sheet. With all of the poisonous kickers that antagonistic teams like to include in such these sheets, the Wizards will be handicapped if they want to fill out the roster. The team also has reportedly offered a “supermax” deal to point guard John Wall, meaning they would be completely locked into this core for at least four more seasons if he accepts.

All three of these guys will continue to improve, but they were unable to make it to the Conference Finals in a weak season for the East last year, and are now betting on that internal improvement to make the difference down the road. 26 million is a lot of money for Porter, a player whose scoring is single-faceted and whose defense is undeveloped.

Regardless, the Wizards were up against the tax and would have had little recourse to improve the roster without matching Brooklyn’s offer sheet. Betting on Porter to get better, as he has done every season, was their best bet as a team. Going into the second year of Scott Brooks’ tenure, with or without that Wall extension locked in place, is reason for optimism around our country’s capital.

Andre Roberson — 25-years-old — Restricted FA

Will return to the Oklahoma City Thunder for 3 years/$30 million

Last season, Roberson finished the season as a net neutral according to Box Plus-Minus, which estimates a player’s impact per 100 possessions using box score statistics. He did so by countering putrid shooting numbers with incredible defensive impact. Roberson’s Defensive Box Plus-Minus was higher than that of big man Steven Adams, and second only to Russell Westbrook for the highest on the roster.

Next season, Roberson’s partner on the wing will be Paul George, whose best defensive season by DBPM was about equal to the season Roberson just put together. They will together reign terror upon their opponents for 48 minutes a night. All arms and chest.

Though it’s hard to gauge the market, two things make this deal look like a bargain. First, several other one-way wings whose value just happens to be on offense rather than defense got nearly twice as much in annual salary as Roberson. Second, he was restricted and still opted to extend with the Thunder rather than sign an offer sheet elsewhere. The market either dried up or Roberson decided that teaming with Westbrook, George and Adams was the best situation among equivalent financial situations.

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Quick Hits: Dion Waiters

Waiters is not coming off his rookie deal, having signed a one-year “make good” deal with the Heat last summer. His new four-year, $52 million contract is the product of him having made good. In the most productive season of his career, Waiters became a core piece of Miami’s offense, making plays for his teammates and shooting the deep ball at an elite level. He earned a big raise and has risen past the mountain of what-ifs on this list.