Looking at each of the teams in the race for the red line in MLS as we enter the two-week Gold Cup break.
MLS has hit the Gold Cup break and is just a couple weeks away from the All-Star game, so even though most teams have passed the halfway mark, ’tis the season of roundups and midseason review columns. Us MLS writers have too much time on our hands.
Today, we’re looking at the races for the red line in the two conferences. A somewhat clear hierarchy has been established at the top and bottom of the standings, so there’s a group of clubs in the middle somewhere around the fourth to eighth spots in each conference that have some work to do to get to the red line or stay above it, and that’s where we’re looking.
In the East, Toronto, Chicago, NYCFC and Atlanta have pulled away from the pack, while Montreal, New England and D.C. United are too far off the pace for the purposes of this article. Out West, we’re considering Sporting KC, FC Dallas, Houston and the Timbers as the “safer” teams, and RSL, Colorado and Minnesota as the bottom clubs.
That leaves Orlando, Columbus, NYRB, Philadelphia, San Jose, Vancouver, Seattle and LA. Those are the teams we’re looking at, and trying to determine their strengths, weaknesses and chances of qualifying. Let’s get started:
Eastern Conference
Orlando City
(fifth, 29 points in 20 games)
It seems the Purple Lions are surviving on little other than their red hot start to the season, which saw them win six of their first seven games. They were thriving with the support of their Wall and their new stadium, and for a stretch seemed unbeatable in Orlando. But since the start of June, they’ve won just once, a 1-0 Friday result in Utah, and they crashed out of the U.S. Open Cup with a 3-1 loss to Miami FC.
Their home magic has mostly disappeared, and they’ll need road results in the next couple of months to keep pace in a weird Eastern Conference. There are questions about Cyle Larin and whether he’ll be able to keep scoring after a DUI arrest in June, Kaka has spent precious little time on the field and has been anonymous even when he’s played, and they’ll look to strike gold in the summer transfer window after letting Matias Perez-Garcia go.
In a year of bad center-back situations around the league, Orlando have struggled to find a capable partner for Jonathan Spector. Jose Aja is an error machine, and Tommy Redding is still finding his feet at age 20. In addition, defensive midfielder Antonio Nocerino has slowed down a bit, and Cristian Higuita doesn’t seem to be his replacement, at least in the eyes of Jason Kreis.
It’s time to rediscover their early-season form, and to do that, they’ll need to get Larin back and scoring again and possibly make a move for an attacking winger. Like Ethan Finlay.
Columbus Crew
(sixth, 28 points in 20 games)
The curious case of the Columbus Crew continues to befuddle observers around the league. Since an MLS Cup appearance in 2015, they’ve somehow been unable to return to the playoff-dominating form that got them there despite remarkably similar starting lineups. They missed the postseason in 2016 and so far in 2017, they’ve been incredibly inconsistent and now face a battle to sneak into November soccer.
Why they haven’t been able to play to their talent level is a question that has mostly gone unanswered. They continue to employ a star-studded attack that generally creates good quality chances, and they still rely on Wil Trapp and a wide-ranging No. 8 (in this case Artur) to boss the midfield. Streakiness, bad finishing and general unluckiness define the Black and Gold.
To diagnose their weaknesses, we have to look first to the central defense, which has been among the most error-prone in the league since Gaston Sauro has been injured, and especially since the departure of Michael Parkhurst. Coach and technical director Gregg Berhalter signed Jonathan Mensah to a Designated Player contract in the offseason, but he’s only made the problem worse, and it should only be a matter of time before he permanently goes to the bench.
The Crew also persist with their “play from the back at all costs” tactic, and that fosters a ridiculous amount of terrible defensive turnovers. Their inability to connect from back-to-front — Trapp has struggled at times, and Artur’s been injured — takes away from the attack, and the threat of overlapping right-back Harrison Afful has mostly disappeared now that teams consistently catch him out of position.
Some positives remain: Kekuta Manneh’s been a revelation recently, Justin Meram could very well be a top-two MLS winger, a couple of rookies (Alex Crognale and Lalas Abubakar) have played well of late ahead of Mensah and they have a couple of valuable trade targets, notably out-of-form winger Finlay and backup left back Waylon Francis. This team is good enough to make a serious playoff run, if they’re at their best.
A radical suggestion: it’s time to lay off the focus on possession a bit. Just a thought.
New York Red Bulls
(seventh, 26 points in 18 games)
I recently went in-depth on the Red Bulls, and why they’ve been off the path this season after contending for regular season trophies the last two years, but the gist is that Sacha Kljestan is dropping too deep and they don’t have threatening enough surrounding players to make up for their number 10’s increased focus on deep distribution. Service to star striker Bradley Wright-Phillips has gone dry as a result.
Of course, the trade of Dax McCarty in January is still a questionable decision, and they have been haunted by that a bit. Until the loads and loads of cash they received from Chicago in the trade is put to good use (on a winger, or a center forward, or a center-back), the front office will be facing legitimate questions there.
They’ve been short at center-back this season as well, and it’s become all too clear they can’t survive for long without Aurelien Collin starting and leading the backline. No McCarty protecting the likes of Aaron Long and Damien Perrinelle doesn’t help.
Philadelphia Union
(eighth, 23 points in 18 games)
Can we call the Union “good?” That’s debatable. But they certainly aren’t bad, and although they have some ground to make up in the Eastern Conference, they’re a team that with one simple fix could immediately vault up the standings.
A wretched start to the season continues to hurt them. After the first two months, they had just three points from seven games, and sat well below the rest of the conference in last place. But since they won their first game on May 6, they’re fourth in the conference, with 19 points from 10 matches.
CJ Sapong has been absolutely crucial for them, and similar to the first half of last season, the attack revolves almost completely around his dirty work as the No. 9. He scores the vast majority of the Union’s goals, and his hold-up play and gravity creates many of the others. Illsinho is the No. 10, and while he struggles to hit threatening balls and play efficient passes in the attacking half, he’s held down the fort with his dribbling fortitude and ability to hold the ball. Haris Medunjanin, playing defensive midfield, plays one of the best long balls in MLS.
Jack Elliott and Oguchi Onyewu have been great in central defense, and Fafa Picault has been a solid addition as a field-stretching winger. Now, they need two things: 1. Sapong to avoid his yearly second half slump and 2. a new No. 10 to enter the scene, one that plays well with Sapong and can add some goalscoring of his own, like the Diego Valeri-Fanendo Adi relationship.
There’s certainly potential in Philly.
Western Conference
San Jose Earthquakes
(fifth, 26 points in 19 games)
The Earthquakes are one of the top teams on my current MLS Live power rankings; in other words, they are very watchable right now, and I recommend you do so if given the opportunity. Chris Leitch, an assistant coach under recently-fired Dom Kinnear and former Quakes academy director, was named manager not long ago, and has made some interesting tactical and personnel adjustments that will go a long way toward making San Jose a team to watch for years to come.
Kinnear had started to approach and eventually experiment with a flexible 4-3-3 system that gave an attacking front four of Chris Wondolowski, Jahmir Hyka, Marco Urena and Danny Hoesen free rein across the field, but Leitch has taken that a step further, implementing a 3-4-3 system that made a point of giving young creators Tommy Thompson and Jackson Yueill much more time on the field. It’s paid off: in the three games Leitch has managed, the Quakes have two 2-1 victories and a 4-2 midweek July 4 result in Atlanta after Kofi Sarkodie picked up an early red card.
An argument can be made that San Jose are a year off of serious contention, especially given their academy is among the most notable up-and-comers in MLS, but with 24-year-old DP number 10 Valeri Qazaishvili arriving soon, who knows where this team could end up in a less competitive Western Conference? The fourth-place Timbers have hit a rough spell of late and the third-place Dynamo have seven losses from nine road games, possibly giving the Quakes an opening to climb up the standings.
General manager Jesse Fioranelli is doing good things. This could be the first year of many if it pays off.
Vancouver Whitecaps
(sixth, 24 points in 17 games)
Possibly the biggest advantage the Whitecaps have right now is their games in hand. Already in sixth despite playing two or three less games than many of their conference rivals, Vancouver have plenty of chances to hold off possible second-half runs from Seattle and the Galaxy.
Also going in their favor is the presence of 16-year-old wonderkid Alphonso Davies, who scored twice in Canada’s Gold Cup opener and is starting to hit his stride, just recently figuring out how to put the ball in the net and capitalize on his many aggressive forays forward. Combined with a seemingly rejuvenated Cristian Techera (five goals and four assists in 15 starts) and the return of Yordy Reyna from a long-term injury, Carl Robinson finally seems to have some things going his way.
Even with this, though, they are far from a pencil-it-in playoff team at this point. In fact, the Sounders should be considered favorites to overtake them in the standings (more on that in a second). The Caps don’t have an elite scorer — Fredy Montero is still finding his feet — there are questions about the backline (particularly the full-backs), and Andrew Jacobson continues to be a consistent midfield starter, which isn’t a good sign.
The talent deficiency is real in Vancouver. Unless we see more from Montero, Reyna and others, I’ll have a hard time believing the cash-infused, underperforming defending champs Seattle won’t eventually beat out the Whitecaps.
Seattle Sounders
(seventh, 24 points in 19 games)
They got out of the gates slow, but the Sounders are MLS’s ultimate sleeping giant at this point. Nicolas Lodeiro has been far from his MLS Cup-winning self so far, and that is likely to change. Jordan Morris’s sophomore slump is brutal right now, but there is no way he finishes the season with zero goals. And Clint Dempsey got off to a slow start, but a super-sub role could be in his sights, and that could be what propels Seattle.
Or it could be the open DP slot and boatloads of cash they’re holding in their pocket going into the summer transfer window. Remember last year when they used their overflowing money to acquire a game-changer midseason and then stormed past the red line and won a cup? That’ll be the blueprint again for Brian Schmetzer and co.
The player they acquire will either be a field-stretching winger to give Morris more room up top or it could be an elite goalscoring center forward that plays the Nelson Valdez/Will Bruin role and allows Morris to shift wide. It will be up to the staff and the front office to decide what position they see JMo in long term. (And maybe they use some of the GAM and TAM they have left to pick up a starting right-back.)
A problem they could run into is injuries. Center-back Chad Marshall and d-mid Ozzie Alonso went down injured against Colorado on the Fourth of July, and while there is no indication that either will be out long-term, the lack of depth in those spots has to be concerning for the Sounders faithful.
Nonetheless, expect Seattle to make a big move in the not-too-distant future.
LA Galaxy
(eighth, 22 points in 18 games)
LA are MLS’s weirdest team this year, and it’s not particularly close. Their home record is a dismal 1-5-3 (W-L-D), while their away record is 5-3-1. They have just one win at home yet they have five on the road. That doesn’t happen very often in this league.
Usually, a team that performs so poorly at home — the Galaxy got decimated at the StubHub Center 6-2 by RSL not long ago — are well out of the playoff picture. But somehow that’s not the case for Curt Onalfo’s side, who are two points behind the red line, and that makes them a dark-horse contender to rebound and surprise the league by stealing a playoff berth.
One reason for that is the multitude of injuries and international absences they’ve seen recently. Starting center-back Daniel Steres has been out with a hamstring issue, goalkeeper Brian Rowe’s been sidelined since the beginning of June, Sebastian Lletget had long-term foot surgery in March, Robbie Rogers is out for the season, Baggio Husidic is out and Giovani dos Santos spent a long time in Russia with Mexico for the Confederations Cup.
That’s a lot of injuries. Even with this, they’ve somehow stuck around, even playing well for stretches. They’ve lost three straight, but two of those were at home and another was at a neutral site, so maybe they can take solace in that (I know). Before that, they nabbed a home draw, beat the Rapids in Colorado and picked up a point cross-country in D.C., while advancing to the quarters of the U.S. Open Cup in the process.
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Their squad of academy kids has picked it up, especially the Villarreal brothers (Jose and Jaime), Bradford Jameison IV and Hugo Arellano. And that loss to RSL came without center-back Jelle Van Damme, suspended on a post-match red card from the Cali Clasico defeat. Once a lot of their guys come back and maybe they get some nice trade value from a luxury piece like Jose Villarreal, they could make a run.
Who knows what could happen?