Patrick Patterson might be the best low-key signing of the NBA offseason
Trading for a player mid-season who is about to become a free agent can put teams in a precarious position. In the case of the Thunder, they agreed to deal three players to the Bulls — Cameron Payne, Joffrey Lauvergne and Anthony Morrow — for the price of at least two — Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott, plus a 2018 second round draft pick — prior to last season’s trade deadline. Gibson only appeared in 23 regular season games and five playoff games with the Thunder, but most teams would have likely paid up to keep a player like him on their roster rather than let him walk for nothing in free agency after giving up several assets to acquire him months before.
However, the Thunder decided against paying Gibson the $28 million he eventually received from the Timberwolves this offseason. They instead used the money they freed up from turning Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis into Paul George to sign Patrick Patterson to a three-year, $16.4 million contract. Patterson’s deal includes a player option on the third year, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, when George, Russell Westbrook and Enes Kanter’s current deals are set to expire. (In the case of George and Westbrook, though, they’ll almost certainly decline their player options next season to become free agents and get max deals).
Even if Patterson decides to become a free agent in 2019-20 with the hope of signing a more lucrative contract while he’s still in his prime, the Thunder made the right decision to move on from Gibson for more reasons than just one. In addition to being a much cheaper short-term option, Patterson is a better fit than Gibson on a Thunder team that struggled tremendously on offense at times last season with and without Westbrook on the court. He’s also an ace defender who will help a top-10 defense reach new levels next season with his versatility.
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Patterson’s value on offense comes primarily from the floor spacing he provides as a 3-point shooting power forward. He only averaged 6.8 points per game for the Raptors last season, but 4.0 of those points came from spot-up opportunities, where he ranked in the 73.4 percentile with 1.07 points per possession. Of players who scored at least 3.0 points per game from spot-ups last season, only Luke Babbitt scored a higher percentage of his points in those situations. Patterson knocked down 36.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers in total, and he was effective from both the corners (41-for-100) and above the break (52-for-152).
Having a power forward who is capable of making teams pay from the perimeter is a huge weapon in today’s NBA. Although Patterson doesn’t shoot contested 3-pointers — he attempted just 18 against tight coverage last season — it doesn’t prevent him from spacing the floor for high usage players. That’s important when it comes to Westbrook in particular because he’s an inconsistent shooter who can draw double- and even triple-teams with ease off the dribble. Giving him more space to work with in the halfcourt by surrounding him with two elite shooters in George and Patterson should be what he needs to create better shots for himself and reduce his turnovers.
Perhaps the best way to look at Patterson’s potential impact on the Thunder is to compare him to the players he is replacing: Sabonis, who started in 66 games at power forward last season, and Gibson, who has made four 3-pointers in his NBA career. Despite being used primarily as a stretch four in Oklahoma City, which was a new role for him after he scored the bulk of his points in the post at Gonzaga, Sabonis ranked in the 26.6 percentile with an average of 0.85 points per spot-up possession as a rookie. Gibson was much worse, ranking in the 6.7 percentile with 0.62 points per spot-up possession during his time with the Thunder.
Whereas Sabonis made 30.1 percent of his wide open 3-point attempts in his lone season with the Thunder, Patterson shot 39.2 percent on wide open 3-point attempts with the Raptors last season, 42.0 percent in the 2015-16 season and 40.3 percent in the 2014-15 season. Even with two non-shooters in Steven Adams and Andre Roberson still on the roster, switching Sabonis and Gibson for Patterson should open up lanes for everyone on the Thunder because it means one less defender can help off of their assignment to break up lobs to Adams or meet Westbrook at the rim.
Patterson combines his outside shooting with some off-the-bounce creation. He generated very little of his offense off the dribble last season, but he can put the ball on the floor and make a play for himself at the rim when defenders aggressively close out on him. According to NBA.com, he averaged 1.1 drives per game and shot 57.1 percent when he attempted a field goal in 2016-17. While it wasn’t much — 20.1 percent of his made baskets were unassisted — it’s just enough for him to not be a one-trick pony on offense when combined with his ability to pick-and-pop.
As important as his floor spacing is, Patterson’s defense might end up being greatest asset for the Thunder. When he was on the court with the Raptors last season, they gave up 102.5 points per 100 possessions on defense. Not only would that have given them the third best defense in the league, it was significantly better than what the Raptors allowed with him off the court: 106.5 points per 100 possessions, equivalent to the 76ers, Rockets and Bucks at No. 17 in the league.
The Thunder already have two of the best 1-on-1 defenders in Roberson and George, as well as an imposing rim protector in Adams, so Patterson’s ability to switch all five positions and provide sound help defense could be what they need to become a top-5 defense next season.
Take the following possession as a good example of the versatility Patterson provides on defense. He begins the sequence by helping off of Aaron Gordon to prevent Elfrid Payton from making a simple pass to Nikola Vucevic in the paint. He then closes out on Gordon on the perimeter and cuts off a driving lane to the basket before leaving Gordon again to protect the paint on a Mario Hezonja drive. When DeMar DeRozan gets beaten off the dribble by Gordon, Patterson puts the finishing touches on the play by stepping up and preventing the athletic forward from getting a dunk or layup.
Patterson also had a couple of big-time stops against Jimmy Butler and Rajon Rondo when the Raptors stormed back in the fourth quarter for an overtime victory against the Bulls last season. That included forcing Butler into a tough shot in the paint when Patterson stuck with him in isolation from the top of the perimeter…
…blocking Rondo on the ensuing defensive possession…
…and contesting Rondo’s shot well in overtime to force a miss with the Raptors trailing by only two points.
Patterson is basically a 3-and-D power forward, which is still a rare combination in the NBA. Shooters at his position are already in incredibly high demand — just look at what the Heat offered Kelly Olynyk this offseason — so getting someone who can play both sides of the floor and make Westbrook’s life easier by knocking down 3-pointers at a rate Sabonis and Gibson couldn’t for $16.4 million is a steal. While Patterson has dealt with some injuries throughout his career and he’ll turn 29-years-old next season, there isn’t much risk involved in the deal for the Thunder.
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Besides, the Thunder were already going to be significantly better next season with George taking over Oladipo’s spot in the starting lineup. Adding one of the best role players in the league who will help them improve on both ends of the floor without needing the ball in his hands only makes them scarier. Perhaps not to the point where they’re legitimate title contenders, but certainly in a way that can help them fight for home court advantage in a competitive Western Conference.