Nicaragua vs. USA: Predicting the USMNT lineup

The USMNT face Nicaragua in their final Group  B match on Saturday. Here is the lineup we think Bruce Arena will select.

The United States are currently in first place in Group B of the Gold Cup on four points. They will consider themselves fortunate after back-to-back mediocre performances against Panama and Martinique. The USMNT need to get some kind of result against Nicaragua on Saturday in Cleveland to secure passage to the knockout round.

Bruce Arena probably already has a list of players to bring in after the group stage to make a run at the championship. But, for now, he has the same roster of players to choose from for Saturday. He made eight changes to lineup for the match against Martinique. How many changes will we see for the Nicaragua match? Let’s take a look at the starting XI we think Arena will go with.

Forwards

Arena deployed a standard 4-4-2 on Wednesday after utilizing a 4-2-3-1 against Panama in the opener. The formation he chooses on Saturday will obviously dictate who we see leading the charge.

One thing is fairly certain: Dom Dwyer will be on the field. The newly minted USMNT member has scored in each of his first two appearances for the Yanks. Should the U.S. manager employ a two-forward formation, who will join the Sporting Kansas City man?

Jordan Morris and Juan Agudelo both had decent outings against Martinique. Agudelo was strong on the ball and made smart passes, but it was Morris who saved the U.S. from embarrassment with a second-half brace.

Who would be the better partner for Dwyer? Agudelo has more of the hold up and possession skills that would allow Dwyer to run off of him. Morris is speedy and can drag defenders all over the field, allowing open spaces for Dwyer to sneak into. Who Arena selects will be contingent on the gameplan the U.S. coach puts in place.

Morris scored two goals last game. It is hard to see how Arena leaves him on the bench.

Midfielders

Kellyn Acosta was the only midfielder to start both of the group games as Arena completely revamped his lineup on Wednesday. Acosta was OK in both matches, and can make an impact on the game on set pieces with his service or shooting, so he will likely be in the center of the park Saturday.

Neither Dax McCarty, last Saturday, nor Cristian Roldan, on Wednesday, made a strong case for more playing time. McCarty obviously has more experience and seems like he has a good game in him. I see Arena using him in the number 6 role and instructing Acosta to handle box-to-box duties. The Yanks struggled mightily trying to connect the midfield to the attack, especially against Martinique, so someone needs to bridge the two lines in order to jump start the push towards goal.

Kelyn Rowe has been the best wide player for the U.S. in their last three games, including their friendly with Ghana. He plays smart and his quickness and crossing ability open up chances for the Yanks in the final third. I think Arena, should he go with a 4-4-2, will ask his wings to tuck in order to help link the midfield with the forwards. That will mean the full-backs will need to overlap and deliver crosses into the box.

If that is indeed the case, Rowe and Alejandro Bedoya are the best options on the wings. Gyasi Zardes had a decent game on Wednesday — the cross he supplied to Morris for the game winner was fantastic  — but he’s an attacking player that relies on pace. His poor touch would make him a poor choice in a more central role.

Paul Arriola is also a speedy player, but has shown at times that he can possess the ball competently. However, aside from hitting the crossbar, he did not have a great game on Wednesday, giving the ball away too many times.

Arena may try to find room for Joe Corona. He is much more likely to start in a 4-2-3-1 formation. But he too had a poor showing when he got his chance against Panama. I see him more as a late game sub if the U.S. need a goal.

Defenders

The defensive third may be the most worrisome part of the field for Bruce Arena. Giving up two goals to Martinique is unacceptable no matter the personnel. Omar Gonzalez was the only holdover from the Panama game. He was OK, and scored a goal, so he is likely to get the start at center-back.

Matt Hedges had a nightmare on Wednesday. It wasn’t just that he got absolutely flayed on the lead up to Martinique’s second goal, the big FC Dallas defender also failed to win balls in the air against smaller opponents, leading to a few scoring opportunities. That can’t happen. Arena will likely return Matt Besler to the left center-back position.

On a positive note, Eric Lichaj showed why U.S. fans have been hollering for his inclusion in the lineup. The Nottingham Forest player of the year put in a good shift at right-back, save one bad giveaway, on Wednesday. He was composed on the ball, never got too far out of position and delivered an inch-perfect cross for Morris’ first goal. There is no reason he shouldn’t get the start over Graham Zusi against Nicaragua.

As for left-back, Arena should reinsert Jorge Villafana back into the lineup. Justin Morrow didn’t do anything against Martinique to demand his inclusion on Saturday. If, as I expect, the full-backs will be asked to join in more on the attack, Villafana is much more suited for that assignment. He has gained quite a bit of experience since Arena took over and appears to be at the top of the left-back depth chart.

Gigantic howler notwithstanding, Brad Guzan will probably keep his place in goal on Saturday. It would be nice to see Bill Hamid get a chance, but Arena hasn’t given any indication that he will rotate his keepers.

Next: USA 3-2 Martinique: 3 things we learned

Starting XI

The need to have both Jordan Morris and Dom Dwyer on the field will probably lead Arena to deploy the USMNT in a 4-4-2 formation.

McCarty will hang back in front of the back four allowing Acosta the freedom to roam a bit. Lichaj and Villafana will look for every opportunity to overlap the tucked in wingers. Morris will make constant runs when the ball is in the attacking third, clearing out space for Dwyer to get into dangerous areas. I think Rowe gets a least one assist working through the middle of the park.

With Arena able to call in replacements — is that Clint Dempsey’s music?! — for the knockout round, this may be the last opportunity some of these players have to make their case to play a part in the remaining World Cup qualifiers. Let’s hope a few step up. The USMNT need a positive showing before heading into the Gold Cup knockout round.