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MLB Trade Deadline Rumors: 5 trades Reds should make

By Nicholas Ian Allen

ARLINGTON, TX - JUNE 21: Zack Cozart #2 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates with Billy Hamilton #6 of the Cincinnati Reds after scoring in the top of the top pf the fifth inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington on June 21, 2016 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TX - JUNE 21: Zack Cozart #2 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrates with Billy Hamilton #6 of the Cincinnati Reds after scoring in the top of the top pf the fifth inning at Globe Life Park in Arlington on June 21, 2016 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /
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Despite playing well at the beginning of the season, the last-place Cincinnati Reds are likely sellers at the July MLB trade deadline.

The Reds posted a poor 39-49 record before the All-Star break, which put the Cincinnati 9.5 games out of first place in the AL Central. Nevertheless, the 2017 season has largely gone better than expected for the rebuilding club.

In first place as recently as May 7, the Reds had a winning record through their first 37 games. Cincinnati spent the majority of the first half with the best defensive rating in baseball, according to FanGraphs, and finished with a 26.1 Def, which was the best in the NL and just behind the Red Sox overall. The offense was solid.

Zack Cozart started the All-Star Game. Billy Hamilton is the fastest man in baseball. Late spring training acquisition Scooter Gennett captivated the nation with a four-homer game. And Joey Votto is still one of the best (and most underrated) players in all of baseball.

Trading Votto could potentially bring back a huge prospect return from the right club, and there has been speculation for years about the possibility of making such a move. The Yankees might trade half their top 10 prospects for Votto’s services given the club’s struggles at first base this season.

However, because Votto is the Reds franchise cornerstone, it doesn’t seem likely the club would choose to part with him now. After all, despite a sub-.500 record this season, Cincinnati was highly competitive in the opening months of the season, and has shown vast improvement in many areas.

With some upgrades to the pitching staff, the Reds could compete for a postseason spot as early as 2018. Of course, that doesn’t mean they won’t part with a handful of players at the trade deadline.

Needs

Starting Pitching

The Reds have a pretty strong offensive club, especially with Votto and Cozart clicking at the same time, as they have this season. Adam Duvall and Scott Schebler joined Votto in hitting 20 or more home runs through the first half, and Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez started very strong. Cincinnati also has the best defensive team in the NL according to Fangraphs defensive metrics, and the bullpen has some very strong pieces, especially Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen.

The only thing holding the Reds back is a dreadful starting rotation. The Reds have the only rotation in the majors to post a negative Wins Above Replacement (-0.9 fWAR) through the first half of the season. Cincinnati’s 5.91 starting pitcher ERA is the worst in baseball, as is its 5.94 FIP. Reds starters have allowed 2.12 home runs per nine innings, which is the worst in the big leagues as well.

Depth

Revamping the rotation is top priority, and the unit will hopefully get a boost with a healthy Homer Bailey in the second half of the season, and potentially the return of Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan in August. Other than that, the Reds only need to build depth, primarily at catcher and in the middle infield – especially should the club part with All-Star shortstop Zack Cozart or surprising utility man Scooter Gennett at the trade deadline.

Assets

Baseball Prospectus Organizational Talent Ranking: 17

MLB.com Top 100 Prospects: 2

MLB.com Top 10 Prospects

  • Nick Senzel, 3B
  • Jesse Winker, OF
  • Taylor Trammell, OF
  • Aristides Aquino, OF
  • Luis Castillo, RHP
  • Tyler Stephenson, C
  • Sal Romano, RHP
  • Tyler Mahle, RHP
  • Alfredo Rodriguez, SS
  • Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP

The Reds are doing some good things. The major league club started hot thanks to a potent lineup and the best defense in the league. The club seemingly made a good first round draft pick in 2016, third baseman Nick Senzel, who ranks No. 19 on MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospect list and is already in Double-A. Cincinnati also added one of the most talked about players in the 2017 MLB Draft in pitcher/shortstop Hunter Greene.

On paper, the rebuild is almost complete in Cincinnati, so there’s no need to trade away Joey Votto for prospects. However, the team could have an active summer, and has some valuable assets at the major league level of interest to clubs in playoff contention.

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