MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus July 15
By Matt Rogers
Welcome back to another edition of MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus. This is the July 15th Main slate edition. We’ll again identify top pitcher picks, mid-salary range options, a value pick, and offensive stacking targets for your lineups.
Yesterday, we talked about how Jacob deGrom ($10,900) was a great pick, but could be too chalky. We focused on Carlos Carrasco ($9,500) as be a better option. However, deGrom piled up 64 MLB FanDuel points to Carrasco’s 34.
Our value pick, Jon Gray ($6,600), flopped with a negative 15 points while getting shelled by the Mets. Still, with either Carrasco and Gray in several lineups, many MLB FanDuel players were able to win cash games as they were able to afford several top hitters in one lineup, like Freeman and Harper. deGrom, though, was the best pitcher last night.
With the Yankees/Red Sox match-up starting at 4:05pm EDT, followed by the Blue Jays and Tigers at 6:10pm EDT, there are 13 games for the Main MLB FanDuel slate, giving us 26 pitcher options to pick through. We’ll narrow our options down to only eight games.
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Here is the list of games we’ve narrowed our search down to:
CHC Jake Arrieta at BAL Wade Miley (7:05pm EDT)
WSH Max Scherzer at CIN Luis Castillo (7:10pm EDT)
LAD Alex Wood at MIA Jose Ureña (7:10pm EDT)
COL Tyler Chatwood at NYM Seth Lugo (7:10pm EDT)
SEA Felix Hernandez at CHW Mike Pelfrey (7:10pm EDT)
PHI Aaron Nola at MIL Jimmy Nelson (7:10pm EDT)
CLE Corey Kluber at OAK Paul Blackburn (9:05pm EDT)
TB Alex Cobb at LAA J.C. Ramírez (9:07pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching plays of the Main slate…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
With Madison Bumgarner ($11,000) finally coming from the disabled list, and pitching against a bad Padres lineup in San Diego, there is a hard choice to make between Bum, Max Scherzer ($12,100), and Corey Kluber ($11,500). But these great options should lower ownership of each today.
While Bumgarner is an intriguing option, and more affordable than Scherzer or Kluber, Madison struggled to pile up more than 40 MLB FanDuel points in each of his four starts before his injury. Also, we’re still not sure, yet, if Bum can bounce back from his long hiatus from the mound in the big leagues. Finally, while Madison has four quality starts in four games, because of his team’s horrible offense he has yet to get a win. So, I’m fading Bum for now.
Between Max and Corey, Scherzer appears to have the better match up, based on wRC+, 103 from the Reds vs. 111 from the A’s. However, the A’s have a higher, 25%, strikeout rate. So the A’s are likely to whiff on ten-plus at-bats, with Kluber’s 33.8% strikeout rate.
Still, Scherzer has ten or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight starts, and incredible run. Also, with a 0.78 WHIP, Max is one of the best pitchers in baseball, and is averaging over 51 MLB FanDuel points-per-game. That’s better than Corey’s 46 point average. I would pick Kluber over Scherzer given the salary advantage, but either of these arms is a fantastic pick tonight.
MLB FanDuel Top Mid-Salary Pitcher
After some difficult starts in May and early June, Aaron Nola ($8,800) now appears locked in on the mound. In his last four starts, Nola is averaging 8.5 strikeouts per game, and 52.25 MLB FanDuel points per game, similar to Scherzer’s average for the year. Aaron also has four straight quality starts, and is now typically pitching seven to eight innings each outing.
Nola is one of only seven pitchers on the mound tonight with a SIERA below four, 3.84. Aaron has an awesome 24.6% strikeout rate along with a solid 7.6% walk rate. Along with a low 1.18 WHIP and 0.90 home runs per nine innings, Nola seems like a bargain at $8.8K.
While the Milwaukee Brewers offense has been better this season, they have the 13th worst wRC+, 98, at home against RHP’s. They’re hitting a low .255 batting average and have a low .322 on base percentage. The alarming stat for the Brewers, and what makes Nola such a juicy mid-salary range pick tonight, is the very high 27% strikeout rate the Brewers have against RHP’s at home.
Given all the great options we have at pitcher tonight, Nola likely gets buried among the top options, should have lower ownership, and is a great GPP play with potential for 50+ MLB FanDuel points while also giving you plenty of salary left for sluggers.
MLB FanDuel: Top Value Play
There are many great pitching options above the $8K salary price-point, and few great options below the $8K salary range. Each value pick is going to come with some risk. However, Alex Cobb ($7,900) likely has the least risk pitching in Los Angeles tonight, against the Angels.
Alex has been up and down all season, not giving up a run in two of his last three starts, but giving up six runs in 6.1 innings against the Orioles on July 2nd. Cobb already pitched against the Angels in Tampa Bay, with mixed results. Alex lasted 7.1 innings, but gave up seven hits, three walks, and four runs. However, he was one run short of a quality start and still had five strikeouts, totaling 25 MLB FanDuel points.
The Angels have been mediocre against RHP’s at home, with a 107 wRC+, 12th best in baseball, and a decent 18.3% strikeout rate. But the Halos aren’t hitting the ball hard in this scenario, a 28.6% hard swing parentage rate. That’s appealing for Cobb, who gives up less than one home run per nine innings, 0.94. Cobb also has a low 6.2% walk rate and solid 1.24 WHIP.
Alex will likely keep the Angels below three runs and should last more than six innings, improving his ability to get a quality start tonight. The Rays also have a better hitting match up, giving us a win as well. We may only get four or five strikeouts from Cobb tonight, but he has a very solid shot at 40+ MLB FanDuel points on a bargain $7.9K salary.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
New York Mets vs. Tyler Chatwood
The Mets lineup was hot against Gray and the Rockies bullpen last night. And Chatwood isn’t the type of pitcher who could cool them off. Tyler is giving up 1.53 home runs per nine innings, has a bad 1.42 WHIP, along with a very high 12.8% walk rate. Chatwood has a decent 19.5% strikeout rate, but that won’t stop the Mets from getting on base often, and likely getting a few over the wall in the outfield.
Seattle Mariners vs. Mike Pelfrey
We loved the Mariners last night, and hot-hitting options like Cano didn’t disappoint, with yet another home run. The Mariners lineups have a solid .305 BABIP against RHP’s away from home, and Pelfrey has been one of the league’s worst this season.
Mike has a 5.35 SIERA, the 2nd worst of all starting pitchers on the mound tonight. Pelfrey is giving up 1.3 home runs per nine innings, has a high 1.46 WHIP and 10.5% walk rate, and low 15.1% strikeout rate. The Mariners are still affordable, and have another great match up tonight.
Chicago Cubs vs. Wade Miley
The Cubs have been disappointing, at times, this season to stack, but they have a great match up against the O’s Miley. Wade has a 4.91 SIERA, and a horrendous 1.75 WHIP, lowest starting on the mound tonight.
Miley has a decent 19.4% strikeout rate, but is walking hitters at a 12.4% rate, and letting 1.32 hits leave the yard per nine innings. They are typically popular and expensive, but the Cubs are a great stack tonight.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
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