Is Martin Truex Jr. set to dominate, or can a driver who’s yet to win in 2017 find a way to punch their playoff ticket in New Hampshire?
Cue Bob Dylan, because the times, they are a-changin’ as the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series prepares for the Overton’s 301 at New Hamshire Motor Speedway.
It’s true in the big picture sense, as Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have won this race the last two years, and Kyle Busch just took the checkered flag during Saturday’s XFINITY Series race. Still, he hasn’t figured out the way to Victory lane this year in the top series, and no one expects defending race winner Matt Kenseth, despite starting third, to claim victory on Sunday.
Even within the current season, things have been shaken up over the past week. Everything is just fine for Martin Truex Jr,, who starts on the pole in Loudon. But for Kyle Larson and the No. 42 team, questions are beginning to swirl after the team’s pole-setting New Hampshire lap was disallowed right after the group was just smacked with a points penalty a few days ago.
Add in the usual drama that comes with only eight races before the playoff field is set and you get a situation where it’s not quite desperation mode at the Overton’s 301, but something close to it for a bunch of teams. That should make the race with the “extra mile” very intriguing.
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Forecast
The Overton’s 301 hasn’t been drastically affected by rain since 2009, and while that shouldn’t happen this weekend either, there’s a chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm breaking up what should otherwise be a partially cloudy day at the track. Weather.com shows a 15 percent chance of precipitation throughout the hours the race will be run, so rain won’t be dominating the thoughts of crew chiefs but should be in the back of their minds just in case.
Three things to watch
- How resilient is the 42 team? Kyle Larson has had most everything go his way in 2017, but that status quo got turned upside-down in a hurry. Not only will Larson be starting from the rear of the field in New Hampshire, he’s also without crew chief Chad Johnston. How this group pulls together at Loudon — or fails to do so — could tell us a lot about whether it’s ready to be a true championship contender this fall.
- How will Aric Almirola look in his return from injury? The iconic 43 hasn’t been much of a factor this season, but it does get its regular driver back for the Overton’s 301. Here’s the thing: Bubba Wallace actually did pretty well filling in for Almirola while he healed up, so if it looks like he’s come back too fast from a fractured bone in his back, there could be some second-guessing in Pettyland.
- Can a driver in the front row separate himself from the pack? Of course you always want to get out front when starting in one of the top two spots, but we mean this in the meta sense because both Martin Truex Jr. and Jimmie Johnson have three victories this season. A fourth would help one man stand alone and perhaps serve notice that he’s the favorite for the playoffs — and despite Johnson’s history, it feels like Truex is closer to being that driver right now.
Predictions
It’s never fun to pick the front-runner, but there really is a compelling case to think Martin Truex Jr. will get it done in New Hampshire despite never winning there before. He starts from the pole, has been fast everywhere this season and has history behind him on the manufacturer side since Toyotas have won three of the last four summer Loudon races. If you had to bet your life savings on Truex or one of the winless Joe Gibbs Racing drivers right now, you’d have to think awfully hard before backing any of the latter, even Kyle Busch.
And for the dark horse pick, let’s go all-in on Furniture Row. Erik Jones is worth watching with a nice starting spot in the third row and perhaps some extra pep in his step as he knows he’ll be joining JGR next season. Grabbing his first career win on Sunday would definitely make that storyline even tastier, and it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility.