MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus July 19 Early

Welcome back to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus.  This is the Early edition for Wednesday, July 19th.  We’re discussing the first half of the MLB Schedule today, only.

With all 30 teams on the MLB schedule today, seven games are scheduled for the afternoon. FanDuel has pegged only the games starting 2:10pm EDT and earlier for the ‘Early Only’ slate, limiting the pitching options to only four games, or eight pitchers.  With only the ‘All Day’ and ‘Main’ slates left, that means the 3pm starts only apply to the All Day slate.

We’re going to provide a top play, mid-salary range option, value pick, and stacking targets for the afternoon games in the Early Only and All Day slates.  There’s only four games in the Early Only and three afternoon games for the All Day option, limiting our picks.  But there’s plenty of great match-ups today, at all salary levels, and several stacking targets.

PLAY FANDUEL: New users win first contest or get credited up to $120!

Here is the list of games schedule this afternoon:

Early Only

CHC Mike Montgomery at ATL R.A. Dickey (12:10pm EDT)

PHI Nick Pivetta at MIA Dan Straily (12:10pm EDT)

NYY Jordan Montgomery at MIN Jose Berríos (1:10pm EDT)

SEA James Paxton at HOU Charlie Morton (2:10pm EDT)

All Day (Early)

SD Clayton Richard at COL Jon Gray (3:10pm EDT)

TB Jacob Faria at OAK Sonny Gray (3:35pm EDT)

CLE Carlos Carrasco at SF Matt Cain (3:45pm EDT)

We’ll start with the top pitching plays for the first half of the games today…

Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play – Early Only

Before we talk about our top Early Only pick, a quick disclosure.  Yes, the Mariners are playing in Houston against the top offensive lineup in baseball, the Astros.  And that’s who James Paxton ($9,000) will be facing this afternoon.  But even the best lineups in baseball struggle against top pitching talent.

Among all starting pitchers in the afternoon slated games, Paxton has the second best SIERA, 3.67, only to Carrasco.  James has a solid 1.16 WHIP and is only giving up 0.52 home runs per nine innings.  While Paxton has a 8.4% walk rate, his 27.9% strikeout rate is hard to ignore.

James was injured for a while, and struggled to get back into his incredible early season for, but he averaged nine strikeouts in his last two games, only seven hits in 13 innings, and has two wins and quality starts.  Oh, and the last time Paxton pitched against the Astros this season, he fanned eight and piled up 55 MLB FanDuel points.

Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play – All Day (Early)

While Paxton is one of the top pitchers on the mound this afternoon, Carlos Carrasco ($9,700) is clearly the best this afternoon.  Carrasco has ten strikeouts in three of his last five games, and in the two games he missed the ten-K mark, he still had seven strikeouts in each game.  Carlos now averages over 37 MLB FanDuel points per game, and that average has climbed over the last two months.

With a very low 3.44 SIERA, 28.1% strikeout rate, and 6.6% walk rate, Carrasco is clearly worth the $9.7K salary.  Carlos is also only giving up just over one home run per nine innings, and has a tremendous 1.09 WHIP.

This afternoon, Carrasco is facing the struggling Giants offense, one of the worst in baseball in this match-up scenario.  If you’re playing in the All Day slate, and want to track the action in the 3pm EDT time-slot, Carlos is a no-brainer.

MLB FanDuel Top Mid-Salary Pitcher – Early Only

While the top plays of the day are obvious, the mid-salary rate options aren’t easy to find. Fortunately, Dan Straily ($8,600) is on the mound in Miami pitching to one of the worst offensive lineups against RHP’s away from home, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Until a five inning eight hit outing against the Dodgers on July 14th, Straily had been consistently putting up around 40 MLB FanDuel points-per-game.  But the Dodgers are a difficult lineup to face, and he still only gave up two earned runs and no walks.  So Dan is likely still locked-in on the mound.

Straily is giving up 1.33 home runs per nine innings, which is a little concerning, but I’m less concerned with this match up.  I’m more intrigued by the 22.6% strikeout rate and low 6.7% walk rate against a team he’s likely to perform on the better end of those ratios.  For $8.6K this afternoon, Straily is a great option in the Early Only slate if you’re not convinced Paxton is up for the Astros match-up.

MLB FanDuel Top Mid-Salary Pitcher – All Day (Early)

Jacob Faria ($8,600) is averaging 40 MLB FanDuel points per game, a very good result for only $8.6K in FanDuel salary.  But that’s likely because Jacob has cooled off lately, averaging closer to 35 points.  Still, over the last four games, Faria has provided no worse than 31 points against a potent Red Sox lineup, very consistent results.

The A’s have been productive against RHP’s in Oakland, but let’s keep in mind they have a 25.3% strikeout rate.  So while they have the 10th best wRC+,111, in this scenario, there’s added value in the pitching match-up given the high strikeout potential.  Faria should provide at least another 30 points, but has a very good shot at hitting above 50 points in this afternoon’s match-up.

MLB FanDuel: Top Value Play – Early Only

Once again, a quick warning about value picks.  Pitchers who fall below the $8K salary range typically do so because there’s risk in playing them.  Every once in a while FanDuel will ‘make a mistake’, and give us a juicy play, but that isn’t happening this afternoon.

While I don’t love picking a pitcher against the Twins offense in Minnesota, Jordan Montgomery ($7,400) has the best chance of surprising us in the sub-$8K salary range.  Jordan has struggled in his last three outings, but they were against the Astros, Brewers, and Red Sox. Yes, the Twins have a solid offensive lineup too, but arguably not as great as those three.

Montgomery has nearly identical statistics to Straily, the only major difference is the match up. If you’re looking to load up on expensive bats and understand Montgomery has a 15-20 point floor, but upside around 50 points, this is definitely an intriguing value pick.

MLB FanDuel: Top Value Play – All Day (Early)

Jon Gray ($6,500) burned me in his last outing against the Mets last week.  I recommended Gray as a top value pick, but all of his risk came to fruition, as he was shelled in New York and managed to decimate MLB FanDuel lineups with -15 points.

However, the big caveat I had, last week, about Gray was that I prefer to play him when in Coors Field.  Ironically, and against all logic, Gray performs better in the hitter-friendly environment. Against the Reds, Gray had five strikeouts and a win in 5.2 innings totaling 32 MLB FanDuel points. In Chase Field, against the Diamondbacks, Jon fanned ten batters and piled up 52 points.

This afternoon, Gray faces a terrible Padres offensive lineup, and in a great hitting environment where he thrives.  For only $6.5K, we have a potential ceiling around 50 points, which is a bargain.

Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks – Early Only

Chicago Cubs vs. R.A. Dickey

I’m a little nervous with this stacking option, but there aren’t many great options to consider this afternoon.  Dickey has been hot lately, fanning around five to six per game and R.A. has a quality start in his last five games.

However, the Cubs have heated up lately and will be taking their hot bats to task in SunTrust Field, a hitter-friendly park.  I’m suspecting Dickey will struggling this afternoon, and finally fall from his hot streak, and the Cubs will continue to build momentum toward trying to recapture their division after winning the World Series last year.

Miami Marlins vs. Nick Pivetta

Unlike Dickey, Pivetta had a couple of solid games against the Padres and Mets, only to get shelled for nine runs in five innings against the Brewers in Milwaukee.  Pivetta now has a 4.53 SIERA, third worst of all the pitchers this afternoon.

From an offensive perspective, the most intriguing part about Nick is the 1.97 home runs per nine innings, by far the highest rate of any pitcher on the mound during the day.  The Marlin bats have been hot lately, too, and this is looking like a several home run day for this offense.

Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks – All Day (Early)

Cleveland Indians vs. Matt Cain

Cain is walking batters at almost the same rate he’s fanning them, a 9.2% walk rate vs. 12.8% strikeout rate.  Matt has a 5.54 SIERA, the worst of any pitcher on the mound this afternoon, and a terrible .309 batting average against him.

Meanwhile, the Indians have a 97 wRC+, tied for 9th when facing RHP’s away from Cleveland.  The Indians have also had some hot bats lately, and should be an affordable All Day stacking option from the afternoon games.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!