Early look at the 2018 fantasy baseball draft
By Gavin Tramps
It is never too early to start thinking about the 2018 fantasy baseball draft. Now that the All-Star break behind us, we take a look at the players you should expect to see going in the first two rounds of next year’s drafts.
You cannot win your league with your first two picks, but you can certainly lose it. This will be true in 2018 with plenty of high-upside unproven talent enticingly available.
Aaron Judge will be one the most interesting players in the draft room. He follows hot on the heels of Carlos Correa in 2016 and Trea Turner this season, as over-drafted sophomores. You can expect Judge to be taken in the first five picks in in many leagues.
There are so many formats of fantasy baseball; it is impossible to create an all-encompassing top-24, so you will need to adjust the rankings to suit your own settings.
In OBP (on-base percentage leagues), Joey Votto should be taken earlier. In leagues that penalize you for strikeouts, perhaps you will not be so eager to roll the dice on Judge.
It is undeniable that power numbers are up. Whether you believe that the prevalence of home runs over the last two seasons is due to juiced balls or greater loft in swing paths or some other reason, the increased power numbers are here to stay.
As such, although valuable due to their triple-impact in fantasy baseball of helping in runs and RBI, home runs are devalued when you consider that light-hitting shortstops hit 20 home runs.
So far this season, 31 players have hit at least 20 home runs, but only six players have at least 20 stolen bases. The power/speed guys who can contribute elite numbers in both categories will be even more valuable next season.
I know it was only four months ago, but maybe you had forgotten that Francisco Lindor (.229 AVG and .659 OPS over last 50 games) was drafted ahead of Danny Murphy (.352 AVG and .992 OPS). Unless there is a dramatic turnaround of production by the Indians’ shortstop, he will not be a second rounder in 2018.
ADP from last year courtesy of FantasyPros
First six picks
Mike Trout
Mookie Betts
Jose Altuve
Nolan Arenado
Kris Bryant
Clayton Kershaw
You cannot be disappointed if you took any of these players with your first pick, perhaps with the with the exception of Kris Bryant. Although Bryant hit 18 home runs in the first half with a .918 OPS, and you wouldn’t bet against him producing an MVP-worthy second half. Especially if the Cubs live up to expectations.
Picks 7 – 12
Paul Goldschmidt
Manny Machado
Bryce Harper
Josh Donaldson
Anthony Rizzo
Max Scherzer
The obvious outlier here is Josh Donaldson. Injuries can affect any player but there is an inevitability of injury that this increases once the 30-year-old threshold is passed.
Personally, I would have taken Paul Goldschmidt with any pick except the first, so as the seventh player off the board, he represented excellent value. Combining Goldschmidt in pick seven with Charlie Blackmon with pick 16 would have been an exciting combo to start off your draft.
Start of round two
Trea Turner
Madison Bumgarner
Miguel Cabrera
Charlie Blackmon
Carlos Correa
Corey Seager
There was no age-concern associated with Trea Turner or Madison Bumgarner’s injuries, proving that successful drafting involves a significant level of good luck. Over the last eight years, Miguel Cabrera has hit .330 (1216 games). He looked like a safe pick but his 2017 .267 AVG this season suggests otherwise.
Picks 19 – 24
Noah Syndergaard
Chris Sale
Joey Votto
Corey Kluber
Francisco Lindor
Edwin Encarnacion
You can almost picture the scenario in the draft room, weighing up the proven abilities of Chris Sale who had never finished as a top-5 pitcher, against the sensational Cy Young Award winning-caliber talents of Noah Syndergaard. The ADP suggests that the Mets’ ace was the more popular choice.
2018 DRAFT: The first three picks
It doesn’t matter whether you are playing roto, points, categories, OBP, average or some weird format that rewards doubles but penalizes ‘grounded into double-plays’, there is only one choice as the first pick.
1. Mike Trout
It is difficult to overstate Mike Trout’s value in fantasy. He missed 45 games but is still one of only five players with double-digit home runs and stolen bases and a batting average above .300. If you’re interested, the others are Jose Ramirez, Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt and surprisingly Tommy Pham.And despite missing nearly half of the games this season, Trout is still in the top-15 hitter according to Fangraphs WAR. Don’t overthink the situation, draft Trout first.
And despite missing nearly half of the games this season, Trout is still in the top-15 hitter according to Fangraphs WAR. Don’t overthink the situation, draft Trout first.
And despite missing nearly half of the games this season, Trout is still in the top-15 hitter according to Fangraphs WAR. Don’t overthink the situation, draft Trout first.
2. Paul Goldschmidt
If Goldschmidt played for a bigger market team, he would undoubtedly be a far more high profile player. 24 players hit at least 20 home runs in the first half of the season. Goldschmidt is the only one to have also stolen double-digit bases (he stole 13). He has done this while hitting .315 and is tied with Bryce Harper to lead MLB with a combined 145 runs and RBI.
3. Jose Altuve
The Astros’ second baseman has been an All-Star in each of the last four seasons. Over that time, he has hit .334 in over 560 games. It is evident that he will always be in the running for the AL batting title. He has 19 stolen bases this year and only six players have swiped more bags, but none of the elite base stealers are hitting over .300. Altuve is leading the league by hitting over .350. He also has 14 home runs and more than 50 RBI, to consolidate his position as one of the few elite five category studs.
What sets Altuve apart from the other players in the top-10 is his position. Second base is far weaker than first base, third base or the outfield.
2018 DRAFT: Picks four, five & six
4. Mookie Betts
No hitter is putting up the same counting stats as Mookie Betts. He is one of only four players with double-digit home runs and stolen bases, and is the only player with at least 15 in each category. He is on pace for over 100 RBI and 100 runs. Betts is walking at a career high rate of 10.5%, and a boost to his batting average looks likely when his BABIP, which is more than 50 points lower than last season, normalizes in the second half. Betts could be taken higher but outfield looks to be pretty stacked again next season.
5. Clayton Kershaw
The Dodgers’ ace has a 2.18 ERA this season. The next 10 starting pitchers off the board have combined for a 3.50 ERA. There was around the same differential last year when Kershaw finished the season with a 1.69 ERA and the other 10 combined for 2.95 ERA. With due respect to Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, Kershaw is simply in a class of his own. Over the last five years (that’s 133 starts), he has 10.47 SO/9 with an ERA of 1.92. There is an argument for Kershaw to be the second player off the board next season.
6. Nolan Arenado
In each of the last two seasons, Nolan Arenado hit over 40 home runs with more than 130 RBI. This year, the third baseman has 18 home runs and is a top-5 RBI contributor. He leads the league with doubles and is hitting over .300 for the first time in his career. Obviously, there is a boost to his value playing at Coors Field, but while he is a member of the Rockies, Arenado is one of the most consistent power hitters in the game.
The best part is that he is only 26-years-old.
2018 DRAFT: Second half of the first round
7. Bryce Harper
The 24-year-old has all of the assets needed to be the number one player in the game. He has hit over 40 home runs (2015), stolen more than 20 bags (2016), led the league with .460 OBP (2015) and he leads the league in runs (2017). He will walk more than 100 times this season, and he hits to all fields. With only two stolen bases in 84 games, Harper may no longer be a double-digit stolen base threat, but the rest of his game is maturing and he plays in the heart of the sensational Nationals’ lineup.
8. Joey Votto
The reputation of Joey Votto’s eagerness to take a walk rather than swing for the fences has tarnished the perception of the Reds’ first baseman. He was always a discipline at the plate but now he has transformed into possibly the best hitter in the game. Over his last 162 games, Votto has hit 41 home runs with 123 RBI. Add to that 116 runs, 113 walks, .349 AVG and .452 OBP. It is only the lack of stolen bases that prevents him becoming the most valuable players in any format of fantasy baseball.
9. Freddie Freeman
In points leagues, no hitter has been better than Freddie Freeman on a points per game basis. He has even outscored Mike Trout. Over his last 162 games, Freeman has scored 127 runs with 43 home runs, 111 RBI and a .321 AVG. That is first round production.
Add to that, Freeman is eligible at first base and third base in most leagues, and 2018 could be the first time the Braves’ superstar is drafted in the first 12 picks.
2018 DRAFT: End of first round
10. Aaron Judge
In 2015, 20-year-old Carlos Correa hit 22 home runs and stole 14 bases in just 99 games in his rookie season. He was overhyped and overdrafted in 2016, with optimistic projections suggesting he would become the first 40 home run, 30 stolen base player since Ryan Braun in 2012.
In 2016, 23-year-old Trea Turner swiped 33 bags and hit 13 home runs in just 73 games. He entered this year with pre-season helium pushing him into the top-three in some drafts.
In 2018, Aaron Judge will be coming off of one of the most historic rookie campaigns. As he showed in the Home Run Derby, he could be the most dynamic power hitter of his generation. In which case, he is a good value pick in the top 10. Of course, he could suffer a sophomore slump when pitchers figure him out. The 25-year-old is slugging .834 in Yankee Stadium (awesome) and .486 away from home (still good it’s more than 50 points lower than Zack Cozart slugs away from home).
11. Max Scherzer
The Nationals’ ace is having a career-year. Batters are struggling to make contact. He is allowing just 0.567 hits per inning, which over the course of nine innings, equates to more than one whole hit less than Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. Scherzer is a workhorse having already tossed more than 220 innings for three straight seasons. The 35.7% strikeout rate is exceptionally valuable in all formats of fantasy baseball, and he leads MLB with 2.01 ERA.
12. Carlos Correa
The 22-year-old looks every bit like a number one draft pick is supposed to look. He started 2017 slowly, hitting .233 in April but then launched into a torrid stretch, slashing .351/.432/.644 since May 1. Correa has distanced himself from fellow shortstops Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor, and a 30 home run, 100 RBI season will make him a very solid pick at the end of round one.
Whether he ever starts to run again remains to be seen. Correa swiped double-digit bags in both of the last two seasons but he has yet to attempt a steal this year. I find the ESPN Player Rater frustrating inaccurate due to its overvaluing of stolen bases, yet despite Correa putting up a zero in that category, the Player Rater still ranks him as the number one shortstop this season.
His status as a potential first-rounder has been thrown into jeopardy with a thumb injury that will keep him out of action until September.
2018 DRAFT : Start of the second round
13. Kris Bryant
The Cubs’ superstar was a worthy winner of the 2016 NL MVP award thanks to 39 home runs, 121 runs, 102 RBI and .292 AVG. He even swiped eight bags and added multi-position eligibility. In common with the rest of his teammates, Bryant has not quite lived up to his billing this season, but he is walking at a far higher rate than ever before, which is leading to a career-high OBP. The 25-year-old has a .928 OPS with 18 home runs over the first half, so let’s not get confused that he is a failure.
14. Trea Turner
In 2015, the league stole 1420 bases in the first half. This year, that number is almost identical at 1405. As we all know, it is the home runs that have increased, with over 800 more hit in the first of of 2017 compared to just two years ago in 2015. The higher power numbers devalue home runs in fantasy but a speedster like Turner is still one of the most valuable players to draft. The 24-year-old is swiping bags at the rate of 80 for a full season, which combined with 100-120 runs and double-digit home runs puts him in a class above the other elite base stealers of Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon.
By the time the 2018 season rolls around, Turner’s wrist injury should be consigned as a distant memory.
15. Anthony Rizzo
After three straight 30+ home run seasons, Anthony Rizzo is on pace for his first 40 homer season. He is walking more, striking out less, and as soon as his BABIP normalizes, he should be back with a batting average in the .285-.290 range. If the Cubs pick up the pace in the second half of the season, expect Rizzo to look like a good value pick at the start of the second round. In CBS leagues, Rizzo has second base eligibility. Although it is unlikely that he will qualify there next season, the boost to his fantasy value would be significant.
With Rizzo dropping down to 15 on our list just demonstrates the exceptional quality available in the first 20 picks of next season’s draft.
2018 DRAFT: Picks 16 – 18
16. Chris Sale
The move to the Red Sox is working out better for Chris Sale than it is for fellow lefty David Price. Sale leads MLB with 191 strikeouts in just 19 starts at a remarkable strikeout rate of 12.70 SO/9. He is in the top-3 with an ERA of 2.59, and is the only starting pitcher with a FIP below 2.00. The left-hander joins Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer in the elite tier of strikeout pitchers with a proven track record of piling up innings whilst preventing runs. Obviously pitching for the contending Red Sox should enable Sale to secure a career-high in the win column this season.
17. Charlie Blackmon
If you could guarantee that Charlie Blackmon will play all of next season for the Rockies, then there is a justifiable argument that he should be drafted earlier, but Colorado has a plethora of outfield options, so one or two will not be enjoying the benefits of calling Coors Field home next season.
Blackmon fell just three home runs shy of a 20 home run, 40 stolen base season in 2015. He was a power/speed fantasy superstar. However, since then he has only swiped 25 bags in 236 games. Instead, the 31-year-old has traded in speed to become a better hitter. He already has 22 home runs and will likely eclipse last season’s career-high of 29, while maintaining a superior batting average in the region of .325.
As leadoff hitter for the Rockies, Blackmon will always score runs (he is on pace for 130) but he is also making significant contributions in the RBI category. Even in the new era of high power numbers, 30 home runs, 130 runs, 100 RBI and 12-15 stolen bases with a .325 AVG is a player that looks good on every fantasy team. He just needs to stay with the Rockies.
18. Manny Machado
The Orioles’ third baseman was the eighth player off the board this year but is struggling in the first half with a .238/.306/.448 slashline. His .251 BABIP is well below the .309 of last season, and he is hitting the ball harder than ever before. But while the rest of the league is trying to get more loft in their swing, Machado is producing more groundballs.
In a year when the other Orioles’ power hitters are failing to keep pace with the league, Machado leads them with 18 homers. He failed to record one stolen base last season, and as if to show how unwilling Baltimore is to run, Machado leads the team with five stolen bases. He is unlikely to hit 30 home runs with 100 RBI this season, but the former first-rounder is still only 25-years-old and will could be one of the best value picks of the draft if he falls too far.
2018 DRAFT: Second half of round two
19. Daniel Murphy
The thing with Daniel Murphy is that, almost overnight, he transformed himself from a journeyman player into a fantasy God. My worry is that, almost overnight, he will return to being mortal.
In the four years from 2012-2015, Murphy had a .742 OPS with 42 home runs and 48 stolen bases in 590 games. Since then, he has slashed .346/.393/.592 and with 41 homers, he has hit almost as many home runs over the last season and a half. In leagues that reward extra-base hits, Murphy is even more valuable, leading MLB with 77 doubles since the start of last season.
He also leads the league with .346 AVG since the start of 2016 and although he is now 32-year-old, he does not show any signs of an overnight drop in elite performance.
The Marlins’ slugger leads the NL with 28 home runs. He owns six of the hardest hit balls this season and has already surpassed his home run total of the each of the previous two seasons.
For all of the hype that surrounds Aaron Judge, Stanton is a dominant hitter who has taken his knocks (in more ways than one) and made adjustments. Unless injury strikes, 2017 will be his most productive season and it would not be a surprise to see him finish the year as home run leader.
Although Judge featured in our list at number 10, I would rather take Stanton at 20 every time.
21. Corey Kluber
The Indians’ ace had a 6.38 ERA after his first three starts so his end of season stats will not be a true reflection on his 2017 season. As such, he might slip to the third round but Corey Kluber is definitely second round talent. Over his last nine starts, he has 1.56 ERA with opponents only hitting .160 against him, while striking out 94 over 63.1 innings, that’s 13.36 SO/9. With three successive seasons of 200+ innings, Kluber has a proven track record of as a workhorse and only Max Scherzer has racked up more strikeouts over the last three years.
2018 DRAFT: End of round two
22. George Springer
The Astros are putting together an awesome season and one of their key offensive weapons is George Springer. The 27-year-old leads MLB with 77 runs this season and, with 195, has scored the most runs since the the start of last season. It looked like the 29 home runs he hit last year would be the high mark of his career but the center fielder already has 27 this season, and that is while hitting leadoff.
The lack of speed hits his fantasy value. He suffered the ignominy of being caught 10 times last year, while only being successful on nine occasions. The trend is continuing this year, with only three stolen bases but caught four times.
23. Madison Bumgarner
The Giants’ ace is another starting pitcher likely to be available at a value in the 2018 draft. The 27-year-old finished last season with more than 250 strikeouts and a 2.74 ERA, having thrown more than 200 innings for the sixth straight season. He was justifiably drafted with an ADP of 14.
The freak injury which sidelined Bumgarner for most of this season has coincided with the Giants enduring their worst season in recent memory. Both will contribute to Bumgarner dropping down draft boards but don’t let that fool you into forgetting that he is an elite talent.
24. Corey Seager
The 23-year-old is only 268 games into his big league career, yet is producing at a rate of 27 home runs, 109 runs, 82 RBI, five stolen bases and .307 AVG. And this is from the shortstop position.
Due to the limited track record, there is a degree of risk attached to drafting Seager in the second round, especially as he is striking out at a career-high rate of 22.6%. It is possible that he could suffer a Lindor-like slump but impressively Seager is walking at the highest rate of his career.
2018 DRAFT: The near misses
If you take out the successive four-inning starts that deGrom endured at the end of May, when he gave up 15 runs, then the 29-year-old is having an excellent season with 2.51 ERA and the highest strikeout rate of his life. He is firmly in the second tier of starters behind Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale and Max Scherzer.
In just 73 games, he has hit 26 home runs and is slugging an NL-best .632. The 21-year-old is enjoying one of the most impressive rookie campaigns in history. He entered the 2017 season with far more prospect-hype than fellow rookie sensation Aaron Judge, due to his mature approach at the plate. It may be a little early in his career to see Bellinger as a second round pick, but he shows all the signs of his production being sustainable.
Josh Donaldson
He was one of the most consistent fantasy producers over the last two seasons with 78 home runs and .291/.387/.559 slashline. In the dilemma of which elite third baseman to draft this season, the only downside to Donaldson was that he was on the wrong side of 30 compared to Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant and Manny Machado.
He missed 38 games through injury and has .793 OPS with seven home runs in the 40 games since returning. His 2018 ADP will be determined by how the Blue Jays end the season and if Donaldson has a new home next year.
He missed 38 games through injury and has .793 OPS with seven home runs in the 40 games since returning. His 2018 ADP will be determined by how the Blue Jays end the season and if Donaldson has a new home next year.
The 34-year-old future hall-of-famer had a career .321 AVG before this season in over 9,000 plate appearances. His production has dropped this season with 12 home runs and .796 OPS in 79 games. 2018 would be the first time that Miguel Cabrera has ever fallen past the first two rounds.
2018 DRAFT: Position scarcity
Of the 24 players (or 28 players if you include the near misses), there are:
0 Catchers
6 First base
2 Second base
4 Third base (five if you include Freddie Freeman)
3 Shortstop
7 Outfield
6 Starting Pitcher
The lack of other elite options at second base gives extra value to Jose Altuve and Daniel Murphy.
A true picture of position scarcity will not become clear until the rest of the top-100 picks are known. After all, if there are four second basemen in round three, then suddenly the position is not as shallow as it first appears.
Third base remains elite, making up 20% of the picks in the first two rounds, but there will be lots of other third basemen taken in the first 100 picks, with Jose Ramirez, Anthony Rendon, Jake Lamb and Miguel Sano to name just four.
In leagues where position scarcity inflates the value of the elite players, a catcher like Gary Sanchez could join the discussion as a second round pick. He has already hit 14 home runs this year in just 61 games.
Like this year, outfield will be the deepest position in 2018. Although it will look enticing to grab Mookie Betts and George Springer with your first two picks, there will be plenty of other high-producing outfielders available throughout the draft.
All 12 players taken in the first round of this year’s draft are expected to be picked in the first two rounds next season. That shows that everyone’s first round was solid this year, except for the joker in one of my leagues who took Xander Bogaerts with this first pick.
Dropping out of the first two rounds will be Syndergaard, Donaldson, Cabrera and the Indians’ duo of Lindor and Encarnacion. But baseball is a fickle game and a stellar couple of months pushing Cleveland to post-season success could change our perception.