MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus July 21

Welcome to MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus, the Friday July 21st edition. This is a daily fantasy baseball column arming you with the best MLB FanDuel lineups, using pitching as a focus, for today’s DFS MLB FanDuel games.

The Cubs are hosting their typical Friday afternoon matinée with the Cardinals, so we’re going to avoid the ‘All Day’ slate and focus on tonight’s Main slate of games, including all the remaining 14 games scheduled this evening.  That leaves us with 28 pitchers to pick through.

Yesterday, we had some missing, with top pick Jimmy Nelson ($9,300) only scoring 18 MLB FanDuel points.  But I was still able to win cash plays with Nelson, due to such cheap points on the offensive side of the lineup.  Also, several of our other options like Luis Severino ($9,400) and Jameson Taillon ($8,600) each had 40 or more points on reasonable salaries, making big plays easy.

Tonight presents an unusual obstacle, with so many great aces on the mound.  The upside is likely low pitching ownership across the board, with so many options for MLB FanDuel players. The downside will be how difficult it is to pick the right pitcher for your lineup, knowing a handful of other options pitchers could out-duel you.

So we’ve narrowed our focus down to seven games, and have several top pitchers to consider, some top pitching fade ideas, value picks, and pitchers to target for offensive stacking.

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Here is the list of games we’re focused on tonight:

HOU Mike Fiers at BAL Ubaldo Jiménez (7:05pm EDT)

MIA Jose Ureña at CIN Homer Bailey (7:10pm EDT)

TOR Marco Estrada at CLE Trevor Bauer (7:10pm EDT)

CHW James Shields at KC Ian Kennedy (8:15pm EDT)

WAS Max Scherzer at ARZ Zack Godley (9:40pm EDT)

BOS Chris Sale at LAA Ricky Nolasco (10:07pm EDT)

ATL Jaime García at LAD Alex Wood (10:10pm EDT)

SD Trevor Cahill at SF Jeff Samardzija (10:15pm EDT)

We’ll start with the top pitching plays for tonight…

Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Plays

The fact that Chris Sale ($11,800) is below $12K tonight, tells you how insanely expensive Madison Bumgarner ($11,200) was last night.  Bum is averaging well below 40 MLB FanDuel points-per-game, while Sale is averaging 52.21 points, tied with Max Scherzer ($11,600), another arm on the bump tonight.

It’s hard to argue against Chris or Max any time they’re on the mound.  Having them both on the mound at the same time, makes building lineups difficult.  Sale has the best SIERA tonight, 2.49, and highest strikeout rate, 36.4%.  Coupled with an insanely low 4.6% walk rate, Sale has been the better pitcher this season.  Still, Scherzer has a 0.80 WHIP, the leagues best and flirting with history.  Neither pitcher is giving up a home run per nine innings either.

The Diamondbacks had started the season hot at home, in Chase Field, but since the sweltering heat of mid-summer has forced the roof closed, their offense has cooled off lately.  So while Sale has a better match-up against the Angels in Anaheim, Scherzer’s match-up is deceiving good, and he may be the better GPP play, due to lower ownership.

Between the top-two pitchers tonight, Sale gets the nod, but we have a strong case for Scherzer as well.

Unfortunately, I can’t end the top picks discussion without including Alex Wood ($10,200).  Wood is one of only three pitchers on the mound tonight, with a SIERA below 3.00.  We’ve barely seen that all week, and now we have three on the same slate.

Woods numbers are nearly identical to Sale and Scherzer, and for a cheaper price.  So Alex allows you to build a bigger point total on offense, while only giving up 0.21 home runs per nine innings, with a 0.88 WHIP, and strikeouts over 30%.  Wood may also fly under the radar with so many great options on the board.

MLB FanDuel Top Pitcher Fade

After a great start to the 2017 MLB season, Trevor Cahill ($8,600) came off the disabled list for the San Diego Padres in early July, and is steadily climbing back into his early season form.  Cahill was a value pick of ours last week, and he landed a big 51 MLB FanDuel point return in San Diego against the Giants.

Fortunately, Cahill is facing the Giants against tonight, in San Francisco.  While the hitting environment is more favorable than San Diego, the Giants have performed poorly against RHP’s at home, now with a 75 wRC+, the worst in baseball.  In this scenario, the Giants have the lowest walk rate, 6.4%, and terrible .290 OBP eliminating the walk and WHIP concern from Cahill.

Trevor has a very good 3.31 SIERA, fifth best among all starting pitchers tonight.  Cahill has a 1.24 WHIP, a little higher than I’d want, but still very good.  The higher WHIP is likely due to his 8.3% walk rate.

However, Trevor has a solid 3.14 ERA and only gives up 0.94 home runs per nine innings.  Along with a high 29.5% strikeout rate, fourth highest only to Sale, Scherzer, and Wood, it’s hard understand why Cahill’s salary is only $8.6K.  He seems like an absolute bargain tonight.

MLB FanDuel: Top Value Plays

Early this season, the Royals and their starting pitcher Ian Kennedy ($7,800) struggled.  I was targeting Kennedy often for my offensive stacks.  However, by late June Ian seems to be getting back into the great form we saw last year.

Over the last four starts, Kennedy has four quality starts and two wins.  Ian is chopping away at his ERA, now only giving up about two runs per game.  So while Kennedy has a 4.69 SIERA, it’s misleading when you look at how he’s pitching over the last month.

Ian is giving up 1.83 home runs per nine innings, but that number has dropped, and while he’s walking at a 9.7% rate, he’s also fanning hitters at a 21.4% rate.  Kennedy also has a great match-up against the White Sox at home, in Kansas City.  So for $7.8K, we’re getting 40+ points tonight, allowing us to load up on our bats.  If you’re fading the top talent, and Cahill, Kennedy is your next-best bet.

I didn’t plan to offer any other value picks, but I couldn’t ignore the opportunity we have with Trevor Bauer ($7,600).  Bauer’s high-level stats like the 5.59 ERA and 1.47 WHIP can be misleading.  Trevor did have a poor negative four MLB FanDuel point outing recently, but he’s been able to bounce back all season.

Facing a struggling Toronto Blue Jays offense in Cleveland tonight, Trevor has a solid 3.94 SIERA, along with a 25.7% strikeout rate, which is a big win for MLB FanDuel players.  There’s risk with a Bauer play, but Trevor offers big K-upside and could be a sneaky bargain pick tonight.

Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Ubaldo Jiménez 

Even with so many great pitchers on the mound tonight, there’s plenty of stacking targets.  We’re starting with the best, but also most expensive, stacking target, the Astros facing Jimenez.

Ubaldo has been a disappointment in Baltimore since he signed there several years ago.  But for MLB FanDuel players, he’s a consistently terrible pitcher to stack against.  Pitching against one of the best offenses in baseball in Baltimore makes this stack all the more juicy, as balls have flown in the heat here all week.

While Jimenez manages a K-rate over 18%, he’s walking hitters at a 10.9% rate and allowing over two home runs per nine innings.  Against this Astros lineup, that spells disaster.  Try to target the cheaper bats in the Astros order, avoiding the top five spots, so you can get a piece of this game while still affording the best arms.

Miami Marlins vs. Homer Bailey

Another guy I like to target is Bailey, who’s also pitching in a ballpark that’s currently hitter-friendly, in Cincinnati.  Homer is giving up a dreadful 2.53 home runs per nine innings, while also walking batters over 10% of the time, striking out at a low 15% rate, and has a high 5.11 SIERA.

Any lineup facing Bailey in Cincinnati now will have a productive day.  Fortunately for us, the Marlin bats have been hot lately, and should explode tonight.  Stanton is expensive tonight, but Ozuna or Yelich are cheaper and just as great of a pick.

Kansas City Royals vs. James Shields

Since the beginning of the season, I’ve avoided Royals bats, but have targeted them here-and-there, when facing a bad pitcher.  But recently, the Royals have heated up, and they also happen to be facing Shields, a consistently terrible pitcher this season.

Shields is giving up 2.34 home runs per nine innings, has a high 11.6% walk rate and mild 16.3% strikeout rate.  Along with a 1.49 WHIP and 5.10 ERA, James totals the worst SIERA on the mound tonight, 5.64.  The Royals will be cheaper, but just as productive as the Astros or Marlins.  Stack them!

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!