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Brickyard 400 preview: Forecast and predictions for Indy

INDIANAPOLIS, IN - JULY 22: Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 Skittles Toyota, poses with the Coors Light Pole Award decal after qualifying for pole position for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motorspeedway on July 22, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)
INDIANAPOLIS, IN - JULY 22: Kyle Busch, driver of the #18 Skittles Toyota, poses with the Coors Light Pole Award decal after qualifying for pole position for the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motorspeedway on July 22, 2017 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)

Find out who has a good chance to kiss the bricks as the stars of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series take their latest crack at Indy.

Has the Brickyard 400 become just another race on the NASCAR schedule? That’s a discussion worth having, but perhaps only in brief since it’s arrived on the schedule once again.

The track itself goes all out every year to make this race an event, but the problems with stock car racing at Indianapolis Motor Speedway are well documented. The revered facility just wasn’t made for these types of cars, and that’s shown in the lackluster racing that has often taken place over the 22 years that NASCAR has been there.

It’s become enough of an issue that this weekend’s XFINITY Series race featured a special aero package that kind of made the cars drive more like open-wheel vehicles, at least in the way they approached and tried to pass each other. The result was a record number of lead changes, albeit with the caveat that it was only the sixth time that series had run the track.

But since that package won’t be in evidence on Sunday, the question remains whether fans will get their money’s worth. The Brickyard 400 is still important to the drivers, perhaps crucially so because of its place on the schedule. Time is running out to secure a spot for the playoffs, and that alone might give the race a boost it really needs now that  it doesn’t seem so special any more.

Forecast

Maybe Mother Nature isn’t so thrilled about the on-track product at Indy in recent years either. According to the Weather Channel, there is a chance for thunderstorms at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and it’s greatest during the precise hours the race will be run. It would be a bummer to start the Brickyard 400 and then have to finish it on Monday, something that has never happened in the race’s history.

Three things to watch

  • Will the racing be any good? Alas, this is the primary question every time the Brickyard 400 is run, and one NASCAR has tried like heck to address. Will there be more than one viable groove? Will drivers be able to pass on the outside like they did in the XFINITY Series race? History suggests the answers will be no, but hope springs eternal.
  • Can Kyle Busch turn the Gibbs drought into a streak? Busch is on the pole, and given the difficulty in passing at Indy, that’s an excellent place to be. Denny Hamlin got the proverbial monkey off the Joe Gibbs Racing gang’s back, but Busch has the potential to make it two wins in a row for JGR after a frustrating start to 2017. He’s been knocking on the door repeatedly, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see him kick it in on Sunday. Oh yeah, he also won this race the last two years.
  • Does Ford have a chance here? You need to go all the way back to 1999 and Dale Jarrett to find a Ford Victory at the Brickyard 400. To put that in perspective, even Pontiac and Dodge have more recent wins. Yikes. There are a lot more Fords starting on Sunday between 21 and 31 than up front, but Kevin Harvick is on the front row and has won this race before. Joey Logano starts seventh and needs a win as badly as anyone. Maybe they can get it done.

Predictions

Is it silly to pick anyone but Kyle Busch? If he had a win this season, it probably would be. His lack of success cracks the window ever so slightly and lets some doubt in, but let’s not overthink it. He’s awesome at Indy, is starting on the pole and seems to have some Brickyard 400 magic when running Skittles colors. We’ll ride with him.

As for a dark horse pick, keep an eye on Jamie McMurray. He hasn’t won this year or even really threatened to take a checkered flag too often, but he has an Indy victory on his resume and is starting third. If Busch has some bad luck and/or he can summon some of teammate Kyle Larson’s car-passing mojo, Jamie Mac could definitely be a factor.