MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus July 25
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column for Tuesday, July 25th. This is a daily fantasy baseball column arming you with the best MLB FanDuel lineups, using pitching as a focus.
While we have a full MLB schedule of 15 games today, the Cubs are once against hosting an afternoon matinee with the White Sox, narrowing the number of games down to 14 for the Tuesday night Main slate. So while we’re missing a game, we still have 28 pitchers to pick through, and plenty of pitching talent on the mound tonight.
Yesterday, our top pitching pick, Jacob deGrom ($11,000), landed a solid 52 points. So many winning lineups had deGrom as the pitcher pick. But our ‘top pitching fade’ option, James Paxton ($9,200), landed 61 points providing more value with his pick. And if you were daring enough, like I was, to go with our value pick of the night, Kevin Gausman landed 52 points on a very cheap $7.4K salary, clearly the best value of the night. So Monday was a great day for MLB FanDuel pitching focus. We’ll see if we can continue the success tonight.
After reviewing all the advanced metrics for each pitcher, it’s clear there’s no top-tier talent on the mound, but a plethora of 20% strike rate pitchers mostly in the $8K salary range. Still, we can narrow our search down to only five games, with some great picks for tonight, and plenty of offensive stacking targets.
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Here is the list of games we’re focused on tonight:
HOU Charlie Morton at PHI Nick Pivetta (7:05pm EDT)
OAK Sonny Gray at TOR Cesar Valdez (7:07pm EDT)
LAA Jesse Chávez at CLE Mike Clevinger (7:10pm EDT)
BAL Wade Miley at TB Jacob Faria (7:10pm EDT)
NYM Seth Lugo at SD Jhoulys Chacin (10:10pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play for tonight…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
Last I said last week, when he was over $11K on FanDuel, I refuse to pay up for Madison Bumgarner ($10,200) until he shows us he’s back to his normal, post-season-like, form. Bum has consistently disappointed MLB FanDuel players this season, and I’m skeptical that ends tonight against a hot Pirates offense in San Francisco. There are too many better values on the table tonight to pay for Bumgarner.
Earlier in the season, Charlie Morton ($8,600) was one of my favorite value plays, until he stepped aside for several weeks with an injury. Since returning from the disabled list on July 7th, Morton has struggled with ERA, but appears to be regaining his high strikeout rate. Charlie has 15 K’s over the last 11.2 inning. However, Morton has also given up eight runs over those same innings.
So I suspect many MLB FanDuel players will turn to other, optically better, options tonight. We’ll discuss those potential plays next. But don’t fade Morton tonight, he’s in a great spot. Charlie has a 3.91 SIERA, the fifth best on the mound tonight, with a low 1.19 home run per nine innings and awesome 25.5% strikeout rate, the third highest on the mound tonight.
While Citizens Bank Park has been hitter-friendly lately, it’s mostly been to opposing teams, like last night. The Phillies have a 94 wRC+, ninth worst among every team in the league, against right-handed pitchers in their home park. The Phillies are striking out above a 22% rate, and are hitting the ball below a 30% Hard percentage. This lineups is the best match-up Morton has had in over two months, and he’s been fanning batters at a high rate lately. Own him.
MLB FanDuel Top Pitcher Fade
If you’re not convinced with Morton, there are plenty of other good, top-pitcher fade, options on the board tonight. We’ll start with an obvious choice, Sonny Gray ($9,100). Sonny is the second most expensive pitcher tonight, but in comparison to Bumgarner’s salary, he’s a steal.
In his last five starts, Gray is averaging well over 40 MLB FanDuel points, and is striking batters out at a steady five to six per game, with a very low ERA, only six runs in the last 33.1 innings. Gray has a 3.81 SIERA, third best on the mound tonight, with a 22.7 % strikeout rate.
In comparison to some other pitchers, his strikeout rate may not be as appealing, but keep in mind that Gray is very likely to get a quality start and win tonight, with a low ERA. So even with five to seven strikeouts, he’s getting you 40 to 50 MLB FanDuel points.
But, while I like Gray as a Morton-fade tonight, I’m higher on Mike Clevinger ($8,200). We’ve discussed Clevinger several times over the past month, as he continues to surprise us with his strong 2017 campaign.
Mike’s 4.28 SIERA and 12.6% walk rate often scares some MLB FanDuel players away. But while Clevinger is struggling with walks, he still has a very low 1.12 WHIP, 2.73 ERA, and is only giving up 0.95 home runs per nine innings. So while he’s letting a few get free rides to first, their trip often ends there.
Since Clevinger is avoiding hits and earned runs, he’s been able to capture a quality start in his last four starts, two of which were wins. Along with a roughly seven to eight strikeouts per game, you’re getting mid-40’s to low-50’s from Mike on a very low $8.2K salary, nearly a top value pick for the night.
Against the Angels in Cleveland, Clevinger has the advantage, and he’s a top five pick for tonight’s MLB FanDuel lineups.
MLB FanDuel: Top Value Play
Seth Lugo ($7,800) has intrigued at times, and disappointing as well. Lugo got his first start on June 11th, piling up six strikeouts against the Braves, a win and quality start, totaling 46 MLB FanDuel points.
Impressively, Seth then landed 30 points against a very good Nationals lineup. But over the next four starts, he struggled to get more than 17 MLB FanDuel points in three of those games, facing the Nats again, but also struggling Cardinals and Giants lineups
With a 4.73 SIERA, sixth worst on the mound tonight, I doubt many MLB FanDuel players will target Lugo for their lineups. But like Gausman last night, that could be a huge missed opportunity.
Lugo has five strikeouts in his last two games, against the Cardinals and Rockies, including two quality starts, a win, and has only given up four runs in 13.1 innings. Seth only allowed three walks and eleven hits as well, landing 36 MLB FanDuel points in each of those games.
Tonight, Lugo and the Mets have a great match-up in a pitcher-friendly San Diego ball park where Seth should excel again. This looks like an opportunity to own Lugo, during low FanDuel ownership, while he lands over 40 points on a cheap $7.8K salary.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Houston Astros vs. Nick Pivetta
Last night, before and after a thunderstorm, the Astros piled up 13 runs against the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park. Houston has the top offensive lineup in baseball, and is facing Phillies pitching struggling to contain opposing offenses in their home ballpark.
Pivetta has a decent 23.7% strikeout rate, but he’s walking hitters at a 10.7% rate. The juicy stat for our Astros offense is the high 2.08 home runs per nine innings. So we should expect the Astros to go deep a few times tonight. Along with a 1.46 WHIP from Pivetta, I’m excited about the Astros again tonight, but they’ll be expensive.
Cleveland Indians vs. Jesse Chávez
With a 4.72 SIERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 1.85 home runs per nine innings, Chavez is one of my favorite targets for offense. Tonight, the Angels hurler has a difficult Indians lineup to defend. The Indians managed to squeeze six runs out of the Reds, in Cincinnati, against decent pitching last night. Now, at home in Cleveland, I expect the Indians to be even more productive, and with more reasonable salaries than the Astros.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Wade Miley
Last night, we loved Gasuman and the Orioles against the high strike-out rate of the Rays in Tampa. But when the Rays are facing bad pitching, those strikeouts turn into extra base hits, and several home runs. The Rays have some hot hitters, like Morrison, and are affordable.
Miley has one of the worst SIERA’s on the mound tonight, 5.08, and is walking hitters at the highest rate, 12.8%. Wade has a decent 18.8% strikeout rate, but that’s not enough to keep the Rays off the base path, and Miley is giving up nearly 1.5 home runs per nine innings. Stack this affordable lineup tonight.
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!