USA vs. Jamaica: Gold Cup final preview

The USA will meet Jamaica in the finals of the Gold Cup on Wednesday, July 26 in Santa Clara. Here’s what to expect in the match.

The United States took a colorful route to the Gold Cup final. Even though they have never trailed in the tournament, Bruce Arena’s squad struggled mightily in three of the four matches before the semifinal. However, against Costa Rica, the U.S. looked much more dynamic and defensively sound. Arena seems to have found a balance in his lineup just in time for the final.

Jamaica are a bit of a surprise. They finished in second place behind Mexico in the group stage of the tournament, only allowing one goal. Aided by outstanding performances of keeper Andre Blake, the Reggae Boyz have been stout defensively and scored timely goals to reach the final. They will need Blake to have another tremendous performance against the USA to lift the trophy.

How did they get here?

The United States began the Gold Cup with a somewhat disappointing 1-1 draw against Panama in the first match of the group stage. Dom Dwyer opened the scoring in the 50th minute, but saw Panama equalize just 10 minutes later.

Arena made eight changes and switched formations for the next match against Martinique. The USA took a two-goal lead early in the second half, only to see it quickly evaporate as Kevin Parsemain scored two in eight minutes to draw level. Jordan Morris quickly took back the lead two minutes later, but the performance was nowhere near the level of play the U.S. wanted.

To ensure a first place finish in the group, the United States needed to beat Nicaragua by at least three goals in the final match. An 88th-minute header from Matt Miazga provided the third and final goal they needed to ensure first place. The States finished above second-place Panama on goals scored. That allowed them to face El Salvador instead of Canada in the quarterfinals.

The U.S. didn’t make light work of El Salvador in the quarterfinals either, even with six new changes to the roster. Defenders Omar Gonzalez and Eric Lichaj scored both goals on the day, but the match was marred by countless defensive errors that a better side would have capitalized on. But a win is a win, and it allowed the USA to move to the semifinal.

The U.S. played their best match of the tournament against Costa Rica. Matt Besler joined Gonzalez as the center-back paring and solidified the defense. Michael Bradley dictated play for the entire match, and Darlington Nagbe was terrorizing the right side of Costa Rica’s defense. The U.S. failed to score until super sub Clint Dempsey came on in the 66th minute. His turn and pass to Jozy Altidore set up the first goal, and his curling free kick put the game out of reach, while also tying Landon Donovan’s all-time scoring record.

Jamaica finished second in their group in the opening stage. Their only win in the group came against lowly Curacao. While Jamaica had trouble scoring, their defense carried them through thanks to keeper Andre Blake. The Reggae Boyz only conceded once in the group stage, against El Salvador, which was enough to see them through to the quarterfinals.

Theodore Whitmore’s side then faced off against an exciting Canada team. Jamaica jumped out to a 2-0 lead with goals from Shaun Francis and Romario Williams, but saw their lead cut to one after an outstanding goal from Junior Hoilett. Andre Blake was called upon time and time again to protect the lead, and rose to the occasion.

The win against Canada meant that Jamaica would play Mexico in the semifinals. Once again, The Reggae Boyz stood tall defensively and frustrated a Mexican side that was heavily favored to win. The match was a stalemate until the 88th minute, when Kemar Lawrence curled in a beautiful free-kick from 20 yards out. The shot froze keeper Jose Corona and dipped just under the bar to give Jamaica a 1-0 lead that they wouldn’t relinquish.

How will they play?

The USA have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 and a 4-4-2 for most of the tournament. Arena seems to favor the 4-4-2, though, especially after the six changes to the roster after the group stage. Tim Howard will likely start in goal after shutting out El Salvador and Costa Rica. The rest of the defense is likely to remain unchanged from the Costa Rica match. Expect Graham Zusi, Omar Gonzalez, Matt Besler and Jorge Villafana to make consecutive appearances.

There is a bit more mystery surrounding the midfield. Michael Bradley will undoubtedly start, but his partner in the center is unknown. Darlington Nagbe played in the center with Bradley against El Salvador, but as a left-winger against Costa Rica. If Nagbe starts on the wing again, expect Kellyn Acosta to deputize the other central midfield spot. Paul Arriola and Gyasi Zardes look to be in Arena’s favor as the wingers, especially if Nagbe plays centrally.

Jozy Altidore is just about a lock to start up top for the U.S. He scored the eventual match-winner against Costa Rica, and has been in good form. It comes down to whether Clint Dempsey will start alongside him or if he will be an early substitute again. If so, Jordan Morris will likely receive a consecutive start.

Jamaica have largely remained stagnant in their formation and lineup throughout the tournament. After two matches playing in a 4-2-3-1, Whitmore made the switch to a 4-4-2 to include his best 11 for the last three matches. There are very few questions among the starting lineup.

Andre Blake has been the best goalkeeper in the tournament thus far, and will start in goal. The Reggae Boyz have played the same back four in every match up until now. From left to right, Jamaica will line up with Kemar Lawrence, Jermaine Taylor, Damion Lowe and Alvas Powell.

The midfield is more of a question. In the knockout rounds, Jamaica have used Shaun Francis and Owayne Gordon as left and right-wingers, respectively. Both Oneil Fisher and Cory Burke could push for a start, however. Je-Vaughn Watson has started every match for Jamaica this tournament as a central midfielder. Kevon Lambert is a more defensive-minded partner in the middle, but Ladale Richie started over him against Mexico. That battle will be the most interesting outcome for Wednesday.

Since Whitmore made the switch to a 4-4-2, both Darren Mattocks and Romario Williams have started up top. Don’t expect to see any changes there. Mattocks has been Jamaica’s best offensive threat throughout the tournament.

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Prediction

Jamaica play hard and fast every moment they’re on the pitch. While they’re not likely to see much of the ball, they can make teams pay on the counter-attack. Blake will test the USA’s strikers more than any other keeper they have faced yet.

The U.S. will likely dominate possession, but have to make every opportunity in front of goal count. If they miss a few chances early, Jamaica will feel like they can win their first Gold Cup ever. However, the USA’s superior talent should allow them to take home the trophy.

USA 1-0 Jamaica