USA vs. Jamaica: Predicting the USMNT lineup

The United States and Jamaica are set to square off in the 2017 Gold Cup final on Wednesday. Here’s our prediction of the lineup Bruce Arena will select.

The U.S. men’s national team finally looked like a cohesive group on Saturday as they beat Costa Rica 2-0 in their Gold Cup semifinal matchup. They will now face Jamaica in the final at Levi’s Stadium on Wednesday. The Reggae Boyz shocked Mexico in their semifinal to reach their second straight Gold Cup final (they lost to Mexico in 2015).

It seems the replacements called in by Bruce Arena prior to the knockout round have had time to settle in. The USMNT were much more confident and competent against Costa Rica, enjoying most of the possession and limiting the Ticos‘ chances. However, the Yanks only started to look dangerous after Clint Dempsey came on in the 66th minute. Deuce provided the game-winning assist to Jozy Altidore before supplying an insurance goal with a beautiful free-kick.

So, what is the most effective U.S. starting XI for the final? Let’s take a look at the lineup we think Arena will choose.

Forwards

Jozy Altidore had not scored for the U.S. in tournament play since 2011 before finding the back of the net against Costa Rica. Obviously, he’s scored plenty in other formats — he’s third in USMNT career goals — but that’s shocking stat. The imposing forward (he’s definitely been lifting) has played well since joining the Gold Cup squad. Even though it will make three starts in seven days, he will be in Arena’s lineup against Jamaica.

The other forward spot is harder to predict. On one hand, Dempsey seems like a lock to start next to Altidore in the final. On the other hand, did you see how effective he was as a supersub? Of course, one could argue that he would create those chances from the beginning if he starts. But that hasn’t always been the case.

Jordan Morris was effective in the opening minutes thanks to his pace and strength, stretching the Costa Rican back line. For all of his strengths, Dempsey would never be described as fast. If the ball isn’t reaching the forward line, he tends to fall back in order to get some touches, sacrificing width and leaving the other forward on an island.

Deuce scored his 57th U.S. goal on Wednesday, drawing level with Landon Donovan for most USMNT goals all-time. He also played less than 30 minutes. The pride of Nacogdoches, Texas, has to be in the starting XI for the final.

Midfielders

Darlington Nagbe is a wonder to behold when he’s on the ball. He seems to glide by defenders on the run and rarely makes a bad decision. The Portland Timbers man was one of the key factors in the USMNT dominating possession against Costa Rica. Michael Bradley was also instrumental in the U.S.’s fine performance on Wednesday. The USMNT captain and Nagbe will be in the lineup on Saturday.

Kellyn Acosta had his best game of the Gold Cup against Costa Rica. He complimented Bradley very well, closing out attackers and surging forward at the right times. The 22-year-old benefited from presence of better players around him. He should be the other starting center-mid.

That just leaves the right wide player. Paul Arriola and Gyasi Zardes have both had decent tournaments. Arriola received the nod against Costa Rica and proceeded to buzz around all over the place. He consistently blew by defenders on the right wing and served in dangerous crosses. The Tijuana midfielder is just as quick, if not quicker, than Zardes is better in possession.

Zardes is a more physically imposing player, able to muscle defenders off the ball or zoom past them off the dribble. But his crossing and first touch are suspect at times, as is his decision making. Arena has a fondness for Zardes that stems from their time together in Los Angeles, but as the Gold Cup has progressed, he has seemed to favor Arriola. Expect Arena to continue that trend in the final.

Defenders

The set-in-stone picks for the back four are left-back Jorge Villafana and center-back Matt Besler. Villafana has been Arena’s first choice on the left side of defense since the U.S. head coach was reinstated back in November. Besler has been the best USMNT center-back in the tournament by a wide margin.

The other center-back position is where we likely differ with Arena: he’ll probably start Omar Gonzalez while we’d love to see Matt Miazga get the opportunity to shine in a big match. Gonzalez has played like he usually does: uneven. He looks decent most of the time, but always has moments where he doesn’t look like he’s played soccer before. Gonzalez is slow and appears to have been born out of position. But he has scored two goals in this Gold Cup.

Miazga looked strong in his lone Gold Cup start against Nicaragua. He partnered well with Besler and even got on the scoresheet, executing a diving header for the U.S.’s third goal. The Chelsea defender is more athletic than Gonzalez and is more consistently in better defensive position. Alas, Arena will probably start Gonzalez due to experience.

Who starts at right-back will be Arena’s toughest decision. Graham Zusi started against Costa Rica and looked … fine. The converted midfielder can serve in a decent cross, but is a liability on the defensive end. He surely — hopefully? — won’t be in the picture at next year’s World Cup.

Eric Lichaj looks to be the best option as DeAndre Yedlin’s back up for the foreseeable future. He had a good showing in his group stage start against Martinique, providing an inch-perfect low cross to Jordan Morris for the Yanks’ second goal. Arena went with the Nottingham Forest man in the quarterfinal against El Salvador and, apart from an atrocious back pass that Tim Howard had to clean up, he played well. He also provided the insurance goal after a lung-busting run late in the first half. Lichaj gets the nod at right-back against Jamaica.

Howard will start in goal because duh.

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Starting XI

Nagbe will continue to tuck in to help with possession, picking his spots to surge forward with the ball at his feet. Villafana and, to a lesser extent, Lichaj will look to overlap. Bradley will sit in front of the back four and look to switch the field with long diagonal passes, something the U.S. did very well against Costa Rica.

If Nagbe and Acosta can effectively link with the three more advanced attackers (Arriola, Dempsey, Altidore) the USMNT should have plenty of chances. Altidore and Dempsey have to convert. Besler and Lichaj, and potentially Bradley, will need to cover for Gonzalez when he inevitably gets caught out of position. Howard will need to come up big on the few chances Jamaica get in the box.

The Americans don’t have to face archrivals Mexico — which is kind of a bummer — but Jamaica are in their second consecutive Gold Cup final and have played well. The Yanks will be favored to win, and they should. But it’s not a foregone conclusion by any means.