The simple reason why Gordon Hayward is the free agent the Celtics needed
Isaiah Thomas was the engine that made the Celtics go last season. With him on the court, they scored at a rate of 113.6 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, which put them on the same page as the Warriors, Rockets and Cavaliers at the top of the league in terms of offensive efficiency. When Thomas was off the court, that number dropped dramatically to what would’ve been a league-worst 99.0 points per 100 possessions.
While Thomas had the opposite effect on the other end of the court — the Celtics were 8.9 points per 100 possessions better defensively with him on the bench — his overall offensive impact was similar to the likes of Stephen Curry (+15.7), LeBron James (+13.5) and Russell Westbrook (+10.5). Unlike them, however, Thomas didn’t achieve the same success in the playoffs — the Celtics averaged 108.3 points per 100 possessions in the 521 minutes he was on the court compared to 108.8 points per 100 possessions in the 348 minutes he was on the bench.
The difference between those regular season and postseason numbers was enough for some to question if the Celtics would actually be a better off without Thomas moving forward. Although he trailed only Westbrook and James Harden in scoring during the regular season, the theory was the ball would move more freely without him and the Celtics would have a better chance of competing with the Cavaliers and Warriors if they didn’t have to work so hard to hide him on defense. It’s a simplistic look at the situation, of course, one which is based on a relatively small sample size and ignores how valuable it is having a player who can create his own shot as easily and consistently as Thomas can.
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That doesn’t mean there weren’t problems with the way the Celtics were constructed last season. As dominant of an offensive player as Thomas is, they relied too heavily on him to create, which became an issue in the playoffs when teams started to load up on him and force others to beat them. Sometimes it seems like Boston has players who can pick up the slack when Thomas isn’t scoring and creating in volume — Marcus Smart hitting seven 3-pointers to help the Celtics win a playoff game on the road against the Cavaliers being the prime example — but moving Thomas would likely turn them into a defensive-minded team that wouldn’t be able to create consistent enough offense over the course of the regular season and postseason.
Consider the following table. According to NBA.com, 56.4 percent of Thomas’ baskets last season were unassisted. The closest teammate to him in that regard was Smart, who created 41.2 percent of his baskets by himself. The rest of their leading scorers had at least 60 percent of their baskets created for them, which included starters Avery Bradley (67.6 percent), Al Horford (67.8 percent) and Jae Crowder (84.4 percent). Throw in the fact that Thomas led the team with 5.9 assists per game, and it’s no wonder why they struggled in the playoffs when he wasn’t able to establish the same rhythm he did throughout the regular season.
Now keep those numbers in mind when looking at the next table. Gordon Hayward isn’t someone who needs the ball in his hands to be at his best — one of the many reasons he should fit in well with Thomas — but he’s more comfortable creating his own shot than Bradley, Crowder and Smart are. There was almost a 50-50 split of his assisted and unassisted makes last season and Hayward checked out as one of the best pick-and-roll scorers in the league per Synergy. It means rather than relying on less experienced playmakers to step up when teams focus all of their attention on slowing down Thomas, they now have someone who can consistently create his own shot in the halfcourt in ways that complement the rest of the roster.
The Celtics won’t necessarily look for Hayward to create much more than he did last season, because a little will go a long way. The video below, for example, clearly shows the difficulties the Celtics faced at times when teams focused all of their attention on taking Thomas out of the game. Pay particular attention to how Rajon Rondo face-guards Thomas the entire possession to prevent him from getting open and how the Celtics are left with Terry Rozier and Smart trying to make something out of nothing. With around seven second remaining on the shot clock, Smart — who shot 32.3 percent on drives last season — is tasked with putting the ball on the floor and finishing over Bobby Portis and Cristiano Felicio at the rim.
Here’s another example. Notice how the trio of John Wall, Bradley Beal and Marcin Gortat are honed in on Thomas at the top of the perimeter, giving him absolutely no room to make a play for himself. Even though Bradley ends up with a good look from the 3-point line — thanks almost entirely to an illegal screen by Horford — it would’ve made the Celtics a lot scarier if the Wizards had to worry about Bradley shooting a 3-pointer and getting in position to run a pick-and-roll with Horford.
The offense won’t look nearly as stagnant with Hayward in place of Rozier, Smart, Bradley or Crowder next season. While the Celtics aren’t a team built on attacking defenses with pick-and-rolls and isolations as much as the Cavaliers do, Hayward gives them someone who can generate a good shot for himself in those situations. It will also make Thomas’ life significantly easier because won’t have to work as hard to get the ball and make a play once he gives it up. Thomas was one of the best spot-up shooters in the NBA last season at a rate of 1.22 points per possession, so he can instead use his gravity to space the floor for Hayward and the roller like Curry does.
Put it all together, and it could look something like this:
Hayward wanted Derrick Favors to pass it to Rodney Hood to start the possession. When Eric Bledsoe denies Hood the ball, Hayward makes himself available for a pass, wisely goes away from the screen and then pulls-up for a shot he made at a 41.1 percent clip last season. Hayward doesn’t operate with the same speed as Thomas in the pick-and-roll, but he’s a long wing who plays with excellent pace and can take what the defense gives him. It’s easy to imagine Hayward being a similar threat on ball reversals in Boston when teams pressure Thomas at the point of attack.
Hayward is even a capable passer out of the pick-and-roll. He’s never averaged more than 5.2 assists per game in a single season —‚he averaged 3.5 last season —‚but he can locate open teammates on the perimeter and on the roll when defenses collapse on his drive. With Horford popping or rolling while some combination or Thomas, Crowder and Jaylen Brown space the floor around him, there’s no reason why Hayward can’t continue to be one of the NBA’s best pick-and-roll scorers.
Hayward will obviously help the Celtics in other areas as well. He’s a versatile defender and an elite spot-up shooter who can score efficiently off of screens and cuts, making him an ideal fit in Brad Steven’s system. He has the tools to play off of Thomas well and his willingness to move off ball should fit in nicely with Horford, who has always been one of the best passing big men in the NBA. Nevertheless, it’s Hayward’s ability to create for himself that will make the biggest difference for the Celtics in the regular season and playoffs. With him on board, they won’t need to rely on Thomas as much to carry them offensively.
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The addition of Hayward isn’t just about putting the Celtics in a position where they’re able to compete with the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals, either. It’s about giving them an easier road to the Eastern Conference Finals, one doesn’t include having to come back from a 2-0 deficit to the No. 8 seed and then beat a No. 4 seed in seven games. After it became clear last season that they were too dependent on Thomas, Hayward gives them the secondary playmaking they desperately need to make that road easier and take the next step towards building a title contender.