When looking at teams across the NBA in regards to depth, it is often the best ones that stand out. Teams like the Warriors with a guard rotation of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston and Ian Clark or the Rockets with Chris Paul, James Harden and Eric Gordon. But not every team is well run. For as many teams as there are in the league with loaded position groups, there are just as many with horrendous ones. The fun part of the NBA is that things can change in a hurry. All it takes is one player to break out to turn a position group from a disaster to something better.
Finding out who that potential breakout player could be is the hard part. Luckily it is late July and I have a lot of time on my hands. So over the next few weeks I plan to wander around to some of the worst position groups in the league and see if there is one player who can break out and elevate the group from tire fire to average. It won’t be easy but nothing fun ever is. We started the project on Monday with a look at the Pelicans small forwards. Today we move on to a team with much less to lose — the Nets and their big man rotation.
Trying to figure out the 2017 edition of the Nets isn’t exactly easy. The Nets have absolutely nothing to lose considering they do not own any rights to their first round draft pick, which means trying to make the playoffs in a terrible Eastern Conference makes some sense. Unfortunately for the Nets, it does not look like they have enough talent on the roster even in a terrible conference to make that type of run. And where that talent deficit really shows up is at the power forward and center positions.
The goal of this series is to be optimistic, so we will do just that. Maybe D’Angelo Russell breaks out and has a terrific season and Jeremy Lin stays healthy all year, and the duo meshes well. Maybe Caris LeVert continues to grow and look like a steal. Maybe someone from that big man group does break out and play well above their expected level, helping the Nets surprise and compete for a playoff berth. So who could that big man be? Let’s take a look to try and find out.
Read more: Brooklyn finally has something to look forward to.
The first part of figuring out the breakout player is determining who qualifies as a big man. For the purpose of this exercise, five players will be under consideration: Quincy Acy, Jarrett Allen, Trevor Booker, DeMarre Carroll and Timofey Mozgov.
Unfortunately for the Nets, two of those players feel like they can immediately be eliminated from the conversation. Acy and Booker are both fine players, but both feel fairly static in regards to their abilities, making them good fits for teams that are better than the Nets.
Booker has emerged as the best of the two over the last few years, thanks in large part to better rebounding ability. Under Kenny Atkinson, Booker also showed a bit more playmaking ability than he previously had, posting a career-high 12.9 percent assist rate. Part of that came from the freedom that playing for the Nets gave him, like when he would grab a rebound and push in transition.
But Booker also showed those creation chops in the halfcourt as well.
This all makes Booker the best big on the Nets roster now that Brook Lopez is gone, but it also limits the breakout potential. After all, asking Booker to repeat what he did last season is enough. Expecting him to continue to add more skills on top of that is a big ask. So, while the likelihood is that he is the best big the Nets have this season, it eliminates him from this conversation.
Much like Booker, Acy is eliminated because there just isn’t really a way he improves enough to drastically change things. As a player capable of playing power forward who can shoot 3s, Acy has some value. But we have seen what is his ceiling as a defender, and it isn’t great. While Acy has value as a bench big, unless he randomly becomes a much better defender or rim protector there isn’t enough to change the talent level of the big rotation much.
DeMarre Carroll, on the other hand, has a case. Considering how the Nets seem to want to play — fast and spaced out — Carroll as a small ball four is interesting. A career 36 percent shooter from 3, Carroll was close to 40 percent in two of the past three seasons. With the ball movement and spacing in the Nets offense, his shooting will be a big weapon. Carroll will also add some switching versatility on defense, which pairs well with LaVert, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and even Booker when the Nets go small.
But Carroll comes with the same giant question mark he has the past few seasons. Can he stay healthy? Unfortunately, at this point in his career, the realistic answer is probably not. After playing in just 26 games two seasons ago, Carroll was able to play 72 last season but he very clearly had lost a step due to the injuries. If that is the case, he cannot help enough. For the Nets big man rotation to truly elevate above disaster, they need around 2,000 minutes from someone at an above-average level. Carroll seems unlikely to provide that despite the fact that he seems to fit into Brooklyn’s style of play.
The other problem is that Carroll doesn’t seem like a big minutes fit next to the Nets’ best big in Booker. That player seems to be someone who could play center. Luckily for the Nets, there are two of those guys still left.
Considering the things the Nets need, Allen is the player that really stands out as the potential fix. With a 7-foot-5 wingspan, Allen has a the frame and athleticism to be a great rim protector. With the athletes the Nets have on the perimeter, a dominant rim protector would allow the Nets to fly around the floor ultra-aggressively in an effort to create turnovers. For a team that finished 22nd in defensive efficiency last year, that back line defense could help improve things even closer to average and maybe be part of a surprising season.
Allen’s tools could also help on the other end of the floor. The Nets are going to play a lot of pick-and-roll this season and part of being successful at that is having a player capable of finishing plays. Allen’s wingspan and athleticism led to some highlight reel dunks at Texas and would make it even tougher to defend the Nets when Russell and Lin start to get downhill.
So is Allen the one to potentially fix things?
Probably not. The fact of the matter is that rookies generally aren’t very good and they especially aren’t very good on defense. Add those things to the fact that Allen could stand to add some strength and it is likely that his season is full of flashes but ultimately harmful to winning games in 2017. Which is perfectly fine for the Nets.
That leaves one player with the potential to be better than expected and improve the Nets big man rotation. And honestly, it seems pretty possible that Timofey Mozgov could do just that.
While he was never going to be worth the contract the Lakers so foolishly gave him last summer, Mozgov is clearly an NBA player when healthy. It wasn’t long ago that Mozgov was playing like an elite rim protector on defense and he has always posted decent rebounding numbers. In addition to having a big body that lends itself useful to screening, there are ways to see Mozgov helping.
However, he is very limited in how he does help. As a gigantic human being, Mozgov isn’t exactly the most nimble player. He works best on defense when he is able to sit back in the pick-and-roll and contest at the rim instead of switching or flying around in help. With how fast the NBA is becoming that limits his effectiveness to a certain amount of minutes per night. When those minutes come, what he is asked to do must be carefully selected and managed.
Luckily Atkinson seems capable of doing those things. By playing Mozgov in lineups where he is surrounded by athletes and shooters, the Nets can maximize their new center. For a team desperate for size for at least 25 or so minutes a night, Mozgov can help them.
The best part of things for the Nets is that a Mozgov emergence would help in plenty of other ways. Brooklyn’s young wings would have a rim protector to back them if they make mistakes, which could help improve their defense as they worry less about messing up. Mozgov’s screening would help Russell and Lin find room to break down defenses and continue to grow as playmakers. And Mozgov would be able to tutor Allen on the intricacies of being a big man in a rapidly shrinking NBA.
Next: It is hard to find a breakout candidate on the Pelicans
Maybe if Mozgov plays well enough, some desperate team would even deal the Nets a late first round pick for him. Probably not, but those front offices certainly still exist and it only takes one. Just like it only takes one player to change how we view a rotation. The Nets just have to hope that one emerges for them this season.