Derrick Rose can help the Cleveland Cavaliers, but he isn’t the answer
The Cavaliers have had an underwhelming offseason to say the least. Whereas the Warriors improved their bench with the additions of Nick Young, Omri Casspi and Jordan Bell, the Cavaliers signed free agents Jose Calderon and Jeff Green to short-term contracts. They also committed $22 million over three years to Kyle Korver and agreed to a three-year deal with 2015 second round pick Cedi Osman before signing Derrick Rose to a one-year deal worth $2.1 million.
The Rose signing has obviously grabbed more attention than the other moves they’ve made because of everything that is going on with the Cavaliers right now. Their interest in Rose didn’t make much sense to begin win, but Rose gives them somewhat of a safety net as the best point guard available on the free agent market. If Irving returns to the Cavaliers next season, Rose will take over Deron Williams’ role as the backup point guard. If the Cavaliers decide to trade Irving for a package that doesn’t include a point guard, Rose will replace him in the starting lineup.
Whether or not Rose can thrive in either of those roles remains to be seen. He’s been the No. 1 option for most of his career and he finished his lone season with the Knicks trailing only Carmelo Anthony in shot attempts per game and usage rating. Having to play alongside at least two All-Stars in their prime will be a new role for him and his future in the NBA likely depends on how he adjusts to being a complimentary piece on a title-contending team. There are reasons to be optimistic about his fit with the Cavaliers and there are reasons to believe that it will be an awkward one.
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Let’s look at the positives first. Although Rose isn’t the dominant player he once was, he’s still more than capable of getting to the basket in volume. According to NBA.com, he averaged 10.0 drives per game with the Knicks last season and he turned those opportunities into 8.2 points per game. Only Isaiah Thomas (9.5), DeMar DeRozan (9.0) and Damian Lillard (8.4) finished the season creating more points for themselves in those situations. Rose also made 51.2 percent of shot attempts on drives, putting him on the same page as several All-Star guards such as John Wall (51.8 percent), Jimmy Butler (50.6 percent) and Irving (51.4 percent).
That’s noteworthy because the Cavaliers are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA. They made and attempted the second most 3-pointers in the league last season and converted them at a rate only the Spurs could beat. Even if Rose can no longer be the No. 1 scoring option on a competitive team, he could transition into the next phase of his career as the No. 1 scoring option on seconds units for teams that can surround him with shooters at every position. Considering he scored as many points in the paint as he did last season on a team near the bottom of the league in 3-point shooting, the Cavaliers will be a nice chance for him to exploit much better spacing.
A lineup of Rose, Iman Shumpert, Kyle Korver, Jeff Green and Channing Frye, for example, has a spacing rating of 96.6 percent using Nicholas Sciria’s calculations. The spacing rating for the Knicks’ most used lineup last season of Rose, Courtney Lee, Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah? 13.3 percent. Replace Green and Shumpert with two starters who can space the floor in JR Smith and Kevin Love, and that number jumps to a Warriors-like 100 percent for the Cavaliers.
While Rose has never been a big-time passer — he’s coming off a season in which he posted the lowest assist percentage of his career — playing in such an environment would simplify his playmaking options and give him the space he needs to continue putting pressure on defenses in ways that can help the Cavaliers.
In addition to shooting 55.7 percent at the basket last season, Rose converted 53.4 percent of his floaters and 43.3 percent of his mid-range pull-ups. His success in those areas go a long way in explaining why he’s most comfortable attacking in transition (1.11 points possession to rank in the 54.0 percentile) and in the pick-and-roll (0.90 points per possession to rank in the 74.2 percentile). Almost a third of his shots came from mid-range last season — a high rate considering how averse teams currently are to mid-range shots — but it gives him something to go to when defenders drop back to keep him out of the paint.
Together, those give Rose the tools he needs to create his own offense consistently. As up and down as the Knicks were last season, they were 6.5 points per 100 possessions better offensively with Rose on the court. He can still score at a decent level and he is more of a playmaker than anyone the Cavaliers signed last season, which will give them a better chance of surviving when James is off the court.
Now for the bad.
The problem with Rose when it comes to his fit with the Cavalier is he’s a wildly inconsistent shooter. He has made only 30.4 percent of his open and wide open 3-pointers since the 2013-14 season and he ranked in the 19.7 percentile with 0.80 points per spot-up possession last season. His volume and efficiency on spot-ups was comparable to several non-shooters last season such as Aaron Gordon and Andre Roberson. That alone makes him a weird fit on almost every team.
Seeing as Irving and James are the primary playmakers for the Cavaliers, it’s hard to imagine Rose being able to share the floor with them both at the same time because he doesn’t do anything well enough to warrant taking the ball out of their hands and he can’t space the floor for them in ways that make their lives easier. Deron Williams didn’t move the needle much for the Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, but he still made 39.0 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers during the regular season. Having someone who can’t shoot on the floor against the Warriors in particular gives them an opportunity to throw an additional defender at Irving and/or James and dare non-shooters to beat them.
Rose doesn’t add much value as a cutter, either, so it’s no surprise that only 23.0 percent of his baskets last season were assisted. Whereas it doesn’t necessarily make him a bad fit with Irving if he returns, Rose doesn’t have the skills to complement James on offense in ways Williams, Smith, Frye and other role players can because he’s not a great passer, he can’t shoot and he needs the ball in his hands to make a difference.
Defense is another glaring problem for Rose. While the Knicks were a much better offensive team when he was on the floor last season, they went from playing defense like the Hornets (ranked No. 14 in the league) to the Lakers (ranked No. 30) with Rose on the court. As Jared Dubin broke down earlier in the season, the Knicks struggled to keep opposing points guards out of the paint and Rose was one of the biggest culprits. He doesn’t have the athleticism he once did to chase around zippier guards on the perimeter and he has a tendency to die on screens, which is concerning seeing as pick-and-rolls have become the most used play in the NBA.
There are a number of stats that back up Rose’s inability to play defense at a high level at this stage of his career, one being Defensive Real-Plus Minus. According to ESPN, only nine point guards out of 83 finished the 2016-17 season with a worse Defensive Real-Plus Minus than Rose: Emmanuel Mudiay, D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schroder, Reggie Jackson, Brandon Knight, Trey Burke, Jordan Clarkson, D.J. Augustin and Isaiah Thomas. Take point guards out of the equation to compare Rose to the entire league, and he ranked No. 442 out of 468 players in the same metric.
Defensive Real-Plus Minus obviously doesn’t tell the whole story, but it raises questions about how Rose would be expected to help the Cavaliers in a series against the Warriors. Even if he does fit in well offensive with James, he’s still not the isolation scorer Irving is and he certainly isn’t an upgrade defensively. The offense would take a step back, as would their defense. It might not prevent them from making the NBA Finals for the fourth season in a row, but Rose is unlikely to give them the edge they need to beat the Warriors.
In saying that, there’s little risk involved with the signing from the Cavaliers’ perspective. Not only will Rose be a more dynamic option at point guard than Williams was last season, he’ll be doing it as the 55th highest paid point guard in the league next season. If he struggles early, the Cavaliers can simply waive him without it impacting their future cap space. If he succeeds, the Cavaliers will be getting great value out of a former MVP who is still only 28-years-old. For the veteran’s minimum, they weren’t many better options this late into the offseason.
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It’s a good situation for Rose as well. He managed to stay healthy for the bulk of last season and he proved he has enough in the tank to make a difference offensively when he’s on the floor. It beats coming off the bench for the Lakers, as he’ll have an opportunity to contribute on a team destined for another run at the NBA Finals. Make the most out of playing next to James and history says he’ll be rewarded well (or at least better than this summer) come free agency.