MLS week 20 preview: Dom Dwyer’s tactical fit for Orlando City SC
As we prepare for another week of MLS, we take a look at Dom Dwyer’s fit in Orlando and Sporting KC’s replacements.
This week’s primary MLS story centered around the Dom Dwyer-to-Orlando-City trade, and the ways that it both showcased flaws in the MLS transfer market and signaled growth for the league as it continues to shift toward becoming a jumping point for future starters in Europe. To fully dive into that and the complexity of MLS salary cap rules, check out Paul Tenorio at FourFourTwo, Will Parchman at TopDrawerSoccer and Matt Doyle at MLSsoccer.com.
In this article, we’re looking more at the short-term consequences of the deal. With Dwyer likely to make his debut for Orlando against Atlanta on Saturday, we’re going to look at how OCSC will play with him in the lineup alongside, presumably, Cyle Larin, who has not yet been officially sold at the time of this writing.
To do that, we have to set a lineup for the Lions. Again, assuming Larin stays for even just one game (rumors abound about his departure to Europe, specifically Besiktas in Turkey), they’ll play a 4-4-2 with Dwyer and the Canadian up front:
Tommy Redding could start next to Jonathan Spector on the backline rather than Jose Aja (who, frankly, is terrible), and either Carlos Rivas or Will Johnson will be on the wing, but you get the gist of it. Aside from the arrival of Dwyer it doesn’t look at all different from their usual XI, which generally relies on the gravity of the increasingly-fragile Kaka and poacher goals from Larin, a soft-footed gentle giant who thrives on smart combination play and tap-ins.
The problems with that lineup are plenty, and given Orlando’s declining place in the standings, could probably fill a whole separate article. But in Atlanta, who defeated Orlando 1-0 in central Florida just last week on a last-second Hector Villalba golazo, the Purple Lions will walk in with a revamped front line, one that will be drawing all of the eyes from the national TV observers (the game’s on Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on FOX).
There’s an argument Dwyer and Larin don’t fit tactically together, meaning Orlando need to sell Larin fast and get good value for him so as to replenish their funds and be able to fix the rest of their roster. I think we’ll see their tactical ineffectiveness on display at Bobby Dodd Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The primary reason for this is that Dwyer and Larin, despite possessing (somewhat) differing skill sets and goalscoring tendencies, participate in possession build-ups very similarly. Both are much more likely to check to the ball with a central defender on their back in the middle of the field and try and hold the ball up rather than shift out wide or run through the channels; naturally, when two guys who both do that a lot do that together at the same time, they crowd each other out.
At best, it will make Orlando even more predictable than they already are. At worst, it will severely diminish their quality chances created and thus lower the two strikers’ scoring totals. They’re talented players and will still score plenty of goals no matter what, but don’t expect Jason Kreis to find a Cup contender sitting in his lap anytime soon.
Three previews
The newest feature of these weekly preview columns (we can call it that, right?) is called Three Previews. You can probably guess what that means: rather than a shorter blurb about another MLS storyline, I’ll pick three intriguing games not covered in the main entry above and talk more briefly about the state of the teams and a particular matchup or fun thing to watch.
This week, we’re looking at SKC-Chicago, LA Galaxy-Seattle and San Jose-Colorado:
Sporting KC vs. Chicago (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET)
Kansas City rely less on attacking prowess than the rest of MLS thanks to their world-beating backline, but center-backs Ike Opara (concussion) and Matt Besler (USMNT duty) will be out again this week, and with the former franchise centerpiece Dwyer now in Orlando, a newcomer-heavy front three will face a big test in a match at home against one of the league’s best teams.
Until they sign Krisztian Nemeth or another big-money name with all that cash from the Dwyer deal, Diego Rubio appears to be the starter up top. The 24-year-old Chilean has shown flashes in a few opportunities while Dwyer’s been on international duty, and in the coming weeks he’ll have a shot to prove that he can be a capable starting No. 9 for a trophy-contender.
Latif Blessing, who has spent much of the season as a supersub and U.S. Open Cup talent as Gerso Fernandes and Jimmy Medranda took the starting wing jobs, could see increased time this weekend as well, and that will be a welcome sight for the neutrals who have watched him dominate in the game time he’s received. Fernandes, an offseason signing and Newcomer of the Year dark horse, will be the other winger.
Chicago struggled when they saw 10-man NYCFC pack it in last week, losing 2-1 despite spending 80 minutes up a player. The way to beat Chicago appears to be sit deep and compress the middle of the field as much as possible, especially the space between the backline and defensive midfield. Bunker and counter, to an extent. Far from SKC’s usual game-plan, but Peter Vermes should implement some adjusted version of it on Saturday.
LA Galaxy vs. Seattle Sounders (Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET on ESPN)
The other national TV spot this week is that classic LA-Seattle rivalry that seems to have been forgotten recently. Both teams have struggled as the Western Conference has taken another big step down, forcing each to make midseason acquisitions in an attempt to climb back into the playoff race.
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Seattle are in a much better place than the Galaxy, already sitting fifth in the West, four places and eight points ahead of their southern rival. Rumors are swirling around Ukrainian-based winger Derlis Gonzalez, who could be the Sounders’ 2017 version of Nicolas Lodeiro. Gonzalez would do a lot to help revive a stagnant and predictable attack that relies too much on Lodeiro’s ball possession.
LA seem to be on the verge of acquiring Mexican central midfielder Jonathan dos Santos, brother of star attacker Giovani. If they go out and lose at home to Seattle on Saturday night, neither dos Santos will be able to save their playoff hopes.
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Colorado Rapids (Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET)
San Jose are a very intriguing team, thanks to their recent tactical switch to the 3-5-2 and increased playing time given to young attackers Tommy Thompson and Jackson Yueill. They rely more on possession and less on scrappy, low-scoring Dom Kinnear games now that Kinnear is no longer their coach.
It hasn’t completely come together for them yet, though. Last week was tough for the Quakes: they went to New York and were clobbered 5-1 at the hands of the Red Bulls, then they flew back across the country to Seattle and let Cristian Roldan pound them into the ground, falling 3-0.
They are in a position to qualify for the postseason nonetheless, and the potential is there for this new system. Colorado are their opponent this week, and these are games the Quakes have to win.