When looking at teams across the NBA in regards to depth, it is often the best ones that stand out. Teams like the Warriors with a guard rotation of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Shaun Livingston and Ian Clark or the Rockets with Chris Paul, James Harden and Eric Gordon. But not every team is well run. For as many teams as there are in the league with loaded position groups, there are just as many with horrendous ones. The fun part of the NBA is that things can change in a hurry. All it takes is one player to break out to turn a position group from a disaster to something better.
Finding out who that potential breakout player could be is the hard part. Luckily it is late July and I have a lot of time on my hands. So over the next few weeks I plan to wander around to some of the worst position groups in the league and see if there is one player who can break out and elevate the group from tire fire to average. It won’t be easy but nothing fun ever is. We started the project with a look at the Pelicans small forwards. Then we went to Brooklyn and ran down their bigs. Now we head to the most depressing grouping on the list — the Pacers and their wings.
Trying to figure out exactly what the Pacers are planning to do this season is a tough task. After trading Paul George, the Pacers should probably be tanking and building for the future around Myles Turner. But then you look at their roster and realize it is full of veteran players like Thaddeus Young, Al Jefferson, Darren Collison and Cory Joseph — they seem to be attempting to compete for a playoff berth in a bad Eastern Conference. For that to happen, the Pacers will need contributions from everyone considering there is no star on the roster. And that will be a problem considering the group of wings they currently.
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The one thing that the Pacers wing grouping has going for it, unlike the Nets and Pelicans, is that there is a clearly above-average player in the group. While Victor Oladipo is overpaid, he is also good enough on both ends to be considered a “two-way player.” That goes a long way in making groups not disasters. The problem for the Pacers, though, is Oladipo cannot play small forward. When looking at the rest of the true wings on the roster — Bojan Bogdanovic, Lance Stephenson and Glenn Robinson III — you realize how big a problem that is when trying to figure out how to elevate the group.
Bogdanovic is probably the best out of the rest of the group. Since entering the league in 2014-15 with the Nets, Bogdanovic has shot the ball well from behind the 3-point line. A career 36.9 percent 3-point shooter, Bogdanovic was even better last year after a trade to the Wizards helped him get even cleaner looks. Unfortunately for Bogdanovic, there is another side of the floor and it feels like he may be better of just forgetting about that at times.
According to Basketball-Reference, opposing team’s offensive ratings have been higher with Bogdanovic on the floor each of the past three seasons. In two of those, 2014-15 and 2016-17, the results were worse by over 5 points per 100 possessions. Which is bad. Very, very bad. Bogdanovic has use as a backup, but considering this Pacers roster he isn’t a backup right now. It means he will be tasked with defending players like LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Gordon Hayward. Even the idea of which sounds very, very bad.
So for the Pacers wing rotation to really improve that means a breakout needs to come from either Stephenson or Robinson III. The encouraging thing for Indiana fans should be that it at least feels possible.
Out of the two, Stephenson probably has the higher ceiling. Of course, if that ceiling was likely to be hit, Stephenson would still be with the Hornets, or Grizzlies, or Clippers or Pelicans. In reality, it has been years since that version, the best version, of Stephenson has played in the NBA. That player was someone willing to fill a role, to defend, knock down open shots and attack recklessly when his team needed a burst of energy.
But since Stephenson left Indiana in 2013-14, that player has ceased to exist. Instead Stephenson has been about getting his own buckets. No matter how much dribbling that may entail. However, there is an encouraging sign. Last season, something — probably being almost out of the league — clicked for Stephenson. In both New Orleans and Indiana, Stephenson’s assist percentage was over 25.
Part of that was role. Early in the season with the Pelicans, Stephenson was asked to carry an offense missing a number of players due to injury. In many moments, if Stephenson couldn’t create a shot, the Pelicans as a team couldn’t. In Indiana, Stephenson ran with bench units and made it work before transitioning to a bigger role. If that can carry over, it could fit well for a Pacers team relying on Collison and Joseph, two fine but limited players, to create offense. Stephenson still has enough size and athleticism defensively to at least be average if he wants to, and he’s definitely an upgrade over Bogdanovic.
But relying on Stephenson is a very difficult ask. He is still the same person who almost dribbled himself out of the league and trusting that player to not come back is high-risk probability. Which leaves one other player as someone who can reasonably be asked to break out.
Up to this point Glenn Robinson III is known for two things — being the son of an NBA star and winning the 2017 Slam Dunk Contest. But based on some of the things that he showed last season, there is a real chance for a breakout.
It all starts with his shooting. After coming into the league as a non-shooter, Robinson has made some real strides. In 2015-16, he knocked down 37.8 percent of his 3-pointers and increased that number to 39.2 percent this past season. If Robinson can settle in around that 37 percent number while raising the volume of 3s taken, it would open up his game. As one would expect from a dunk contest winner, Robinson is explosive inside the arc. According to Basketball-Reference, Robinson shot 63 percent from 0-3 feet from the rim this season. If Robinson use his better shooting to attack closeouts, there are more points to be had.
The problem comes with his handle. Last season 31 percent of Robinson’s offense came via spot up chances, and another 21 percent came in transition. When Robinson did have to put the ball on the floor in traffic it wasn’t as pretty, as he turned the ball over more often than he assisted teammates. If he can improve his handle this season enough to attack and beat closeouts then Robinson becomes an even better option for the Pacers offense.
If he improves there, the Pacers really have a 3-and-D wing to build with. Despite playing the same position as Paul George last year, opponents offenses were worse with Robinson on the floor. Considering Robinson played about as many minutes per game with George as without, it can’t all be attributed to George’s influence. While Robinson won’t ever be on his level as a defender, he is starting from a good place.
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For the Pacers to actually make the playoffs this season they need plenty of things to go right on the wings. Oladipo must continue to grow into an above-average player. Then two of the three other wings must grow. Bogdanovic needs to continue to shoot the ball at a high level. Stephenson needs to be the old, or maybe a new, Stephenson. Or Glenn Robinson III needs to continue to grow as a 3-and-D player.
All of that happening seems unlikely. Heck, even asking for two to grow seems hard. But count me in as hopefully optimistic on Robinson surprising people. And after a crazy summer, maybe that hope is what Pacers fans need.