Can Novak Djokovic return and find his elite form?

Citing the elbow injury that forced him to retire in the middle of his quarterfinal match against Tomas Berdych in Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic has announced that he will skip the rest of the year—and hope to come back in resurgent form in 2018.

Sound familiar? Watching Roger Federer hoist up a record eighth Wimbledon trophy and his 19th grand slam title, in a year showered with accolades and records broken, after a six-month absence, it must seem like a sports story anyone within range would want to emulate.

Is that what Novak Djokovic is going for as well, with his announcement via Facebook after his Wimbledon disappointment.

“After a year and half of carrying an elbow injury that has culminated in the last couple of months, I made the decision not to play any more for rest of 2017 season,” Djokovic said in a Facebook Live video.

When Novak won the French Open in 2016, no one disputed that he was the best tennis player in the world. He had achieved all four grand slams, dominated on all surfaces, and held the record for most Masters 1000 wins at 30. For the Djokovic 2011-2016 reign, he had won at least one grand slam per year, making it to at least three grand slam finals per year (except 2014), and held the calendar year slam as reigning champion of all four by the time he had clinched the French. At 12 grand slams, he looked on track to equal then-Nadal’s and Pete Sampras’ 14 grand slams (Rafa now has 15) and possibly Federer’s then-17 (now 19).

The physical and mental stress of being on top started taking their toll with a series of shocking early exits last year, with a third-round loss in Wimbledon to Sam Querry, first-round loss to Juan Martin del Potro in the Olympics, and losing the No. 1 ranking to Andy Murray last fall. Even when it looked like he was recovering form, such as the U.S. Open final, he again lost, to Stan Wawrinka.

This year has been worse for the Serb, with even more disappointing results, with only two ATP 250 titles (Qatar and Aegon), one Masters 1000 final (lost to A Zverev), and no grand slam finals—retiring early in his Wimbledon quarterfinal match with Berdych.

Taking a page out of Federer’s book?

By all accounts, Roger Federer had a worse 2016 than Djokovic’s year so far, with no titles for the first time in his career, and only one final appearance at an ATP 250.

Enter 2017 and it’s a completely different narrative. Federer has achieved two grand slams, including an eighth Wimbledon, two Masters 1000 titles, and another title at Halle. And the year is not over.

After Federer’s semifinal loss at Wimbledon in 2016, he decided to spend extra time rehabbing from knee surgery done earlier that year, sitting out the remainder of the season. In his “downtime,” he also managed to perfect the one weakness he always had, his backhand. In 2017, he came back rejuvenated and motivated, with a more aggressive style and a new backhand weapon, with the results pouring in rapidly (and still are).

Djokovic, citing his own elbow injury that has been plaguing him for a year now, is clearly hoping for the same “wow factor” when he returns. He says he would like to spend time with his family and get ready for baby No. 2 on the way and take care of his overtaxed body.

"“Another important moment is coming, we will become parents for a second time. My wife Jelena and I are expecting our second child, and we are preparing to welcome a new family member,” Djokovic said in his press conference. “These are things that fill me with greatest happiness and delight. I’m confident I will be ready for start of the new season.”"

But is his situation the same as the Swiss champion? Federer, a perfectionist to the game of tennis if ever there was one, always had a weak backhand, one that Nadal was always able to exploit. With that fixed, Federer has been playing some of the best tennis of his career, almost perfect. He may have been faster when he was younger, but many argue not, and with a “perfect” game, no one seems able to challenge him.

Djokovic’s game is also different. His strength came from being able to grind down his opponents and outlast them. Will he be able to replicate and improve on this type of athletic ability going into his 30s, with a growing family that keeps requiring his attention? Federer came back this year, with improved playing shots and a focus on keeping the rallies shorter. Doing the same for Nole will require a completely different blue print.

“It won’t be like Roger Federer, who was winning Grand Slams straight out of the blocks after he came back, but sometime next year he will be playing well again,” Wimbledon champ Pat Cash said to Sport 24.

Or could it be like Tiger Woods?

When Tiger Woods’ marital problems surfaced (with the infamous golf club fight and car accident in 2009), he underwent a decline he has never recovered from. Tennis legend and commentator John McEnroe indicated that Djokovic is having marital issues of his own and that they are a contributing factor to his lack of focus.

Providing commentary to the BBC, McEnroe was asked who to compare Djokovic’s slump to. “The person that comes to mind immediately with Novak is not a tennis player, it’s actually a golfer: Tiger Woods,” was his answer.

“When he (Woods) had the issues with his wife and then he seemed to go completely off the rails and has never been even close to being the same player,” he continued. “So we’re starting to say: ‘Wait a minute, is this possible with him (Djokovic)?”

Although there’s no indication that some of Djokovic’s issues are as serious as what ailed Woods, there’s also no guarantee that he will return to the game the following year with the same results that either Federer or Nadal have achieved this year.

Preparing for a better 2018

All rumors aside, Djokovic is included in the ‘big four’ for a reason and with the top champions being in their 30s, he is smartly taking the time off he needs in order to prolong his career and keep achieving years from now.

“I really want to play professional tennis for many years to come,” said the Serbian in his statement and spoke of building “a foundation for the next five years or more.”

Having achieved a record 11 titles in just five years, no one can count the 12-time grand slam winner out. During his recovery time, he will also be working with his new coach Andre Agassi, who may not have helped him win any titles yet, but there are signs of promise with the former world No. 1 progressing further in tournaments this summer than he had earlier this year. Federer did the same with new coach Ivan Ljubicic at the end of 2015, that seemed to yield dividends during his recuperation. Federer credits his new coach for the work they did to make his backhand so strong when he returned.

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Novak will likely be out for the U.S. Open, the first time in 51 consecutive grand slam appearances, and his ranking will probably drop. Currently ranked No. 4, he could be out of the top 10 by the end of the year, but with positive results in 2018, the dip in rankings could be reversed, as we’ve seen with world No. 2 Nadal and No. 3 Federer, who are likely to battle for the top two spots over Andy Murray, nursing his own hip injury, towards the end of the year.

But with a focus on maintaining a career into his 30’s, and perhaps with Murray doing the same with his own injury recuperation, we are continuing to see the new trend of tennis legends in their 30s adding to their impressive legacies and acting as if the #nextgen simply don’t exist.