Fantasy Baseball 2017: Jose Altuve and other July studs
By Gavin Tramps
Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is hitting over .500 in July. In this article, we take a look at Altuve and other fantasy studs producing the goods this month.
July is always a strange month in fantasy baseball. The All-Star break impacts pitchers’ routines and the Home Run Derby casts its infamous power-sapping spell over the participants.
And then, just as everyone is getting back into the rhythm of the game, the trade season starts in earnest and a domino-effect cascades through the teams.
Generally, a trade-deadline move has only a limited effect on a hitter’s production. Obviously, this is not true if Charlie Blackmon moves away from the Rockies or if Jonathan Lucroy is traded to Colorado, but typically a move like Lucas Duda’s from the Mets to the Rays will make only a little change to his fantasy value. Read Brad Kelly’s take on the Duda trade.
The opposite is the case for relief pitchers. Fantasy teams can be decimated by real life deadline deals. One moment you think you are secure for saves for the rest of the season and the next moment, Brandon Maurer and David Robertson are demoted to set-up men on their new teams and Addison Reed will likely be traded from the Mets in the next day or two.
HOME RUNS
Move over Aaron Judge, the Miami slugger is back on the scene. Giancarlo Stanton has launched 12 home runs in July, taking his tally to 33 for the season, tying for the MLB lead with Judge.
Stanton is making contact at the highest rate of his career and is on-pace for 52 home runs, 117 runs and 112 RBI. Obviously, remaining healthy is a key to Stanton’s success, and the 27-year-old has only missed one Marlins’ game this year.
In our early look at the first two rounds of 2018 drafts, we suggested that Stanton would go with pick 20, making him possibly the best value pick of the draft.
Just behind Stanton in bombs this month are Bryce Harper and Mike Moustakas, both with nine. Harper is on-pace for another 40 home run season and should surpass the runs and RBI totals of his MVP-winning season of 2015.
Moustakas has been a revelation in 2017. Despite walking less and striking out more than he has since 2012, the 28-year-old has already eclipsed his previous career-high of 22 home runs. Barring injury, Moustakas will set highs in runs and RBI, plus he could also improve upon his best batting average of .284.
Fourteen players hit seven or eight home runs in July. Several were surprising additions to the sluggers’ list, like the Cardinals’ Paul DeJong, but it is Justin Smoak that needs more attention.
Only Judge, Stanton and Moustakas have hit more home runs than the 29 launched by the Blue Jays’ first baseman. The 30-year-old has dramatically reduced his strikeouts from over 32% last season to under 20% this year, and the home run power has come despite the switch-hitter pulling the ball less frequently. This suggests an improvement in his all-round hitting game, which points to a greater chance that he can sustain his production.
Bryce Harper has scored 26 runs so far in July to lead the majors for the month. Only the Rockies’ Charlie Blackmon with 89 has scored more runs this season than Harper’s 86.
Despite hitting .354 for the season with men on-base, Blackmon only drove in 12 runs in July, whereas Harper was a top-5 run-producer with another 20+ RBI month.
Harper leads MLB with a combined 165 runs and RBI. He is a counting stat God who is hitting .338.
The game’s most consistent RBI-machine is Nolan Arenado. He has led MLB with the most RBI in each of the last two seasons and added another 28 to his tally in July. He now has 465 RBI, and he is still only 26-years-old.
In the early look at next season’s draft, we slotted Arenado and Harper at sixth and seventh respectively. Like this season, both will be reliable first round picks next year, offering elite first round production.
In July, Arenado and Harper were two of the top five RBI producers with the Orioles’ second baseman Jonathan Schoop and the Marlins’ outfield Marcell Ozuna as two of the others. Who do you think was just behind Arenado with the second most RBI in July (answer at the end of the article).
Jose Altuve: Fantasy MVP?
July was a sensational month for the Houston Astros’ second baseman Jose Altuve, as he continues to establish himself as one of the top-3 players in fantasy baseball.
The 27-year-old has 44 hits so far this month, and there are still two games left in July, so the likelihood is high that he will surpass his previous career-best of 45 hits in a month.
The extraordinary number of times that Altuve puts the ball in play is reflected by his batting average which is over .500 this month (.506 AVG to be exact) and .369 on the season. Unsurprisingly, he leads the majors this year, and over the last four seasons combined, Altuve is hitting 24 points higher than second-placed Michael Brantley.
It is not just Altuve’s dominance in the batting average category that puts him as the second pick in our early look at next year’s first two rounds of the draft. He is a true five-category hitter.
This season, he is one of only eight players to have swiped at least 20 bags. Unsurprisingly, he is the only one of those eight with 15 home runs. It would have been neater to write that he was the only player with double-digit home runs, but with 14 long balls, Elvis Andrus is having a career-year, demolishing his previous high of eight.
But back to Altuve, he has the most RBI of the elite eight base stealers and is also the only one with more than 70 runs.
Despite his .727 OPS in July, we should mention Red Sox’ outfielder Mookie Betts. The threshold of 20 stolen bases was an arbitrary figure. If we had set it at 17, then the narrative would not have worked, as Betts has 17 stolen bases with 17 home runs, albeit with a batting average below .275.
In points leagues, often regarded as a better reflection of a player’s overall value, Altuve is the leader in July, ahead of Harper and Stanton.
Home Run Derby winner Aaron Judge led MLB in July with 34 strikeouts. He now has 129 strikeouts on the season, with only Miguel Sano (138) and Khris Davis (137) with more.
In July, Judge had 19 hits, which was three fewer than the number of walks by Joey Votto. The Reds’ first baseman led MLB with 22 free passes this month and has now walked to first base 77 times this season as part of his .425 OBP.
Votto’s Reds’ teammate Billy Hamilton rediscovered his sprinting shoes after a quiet June which saw him nab just five bags. Hamilton led the majors with 11 stolen bases in July, taking his tally for the season to 44. They have come with .241 AVG and .628 OPS, so he is likely hurting you in other categories, but if it is speed that you need, Hamilton is proving that he is still number one.
We will end the article with the most unlikely fantasy baseball stud of the month. Helped by a second successive month of 100+ at-bats, Royals’ second baseman Whit Merrifield has catapulted himself into mixed-league relevance.
In Spring Training, I was dismissive of the 28-year-old’s mediocre tools compared to the exciting proposition of Raul Mondesi making the Royals’ Opening Day lineup.
He has been on a tear since May 1, hitting over .300 with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases. In July, he recorded the significant achievement of tying Harper and Stanton for the most extra-base hits. In points leagues, he is the fourth highest scorer in July behind the elite trio of Harper, Stanton and Altuve.
There is a very familiar look to the July leaders of the five main categories: Harper, Altuve, Stanton, Arenado and Hamilton.
Expect a few less predictable names in August. How about Lucas Duda hitting the most home runs for Tampa Bay or Cory Spangenberg leading MLB in runs or perhaps, the Phillies’ Nick Williams continuing his torrid stretch by heading the RBI list.
And so back to the RBI producers in July. You will recall that Nolan Arenado was first but Red Sox veteran Dustin Pedroia was just behind him in second with 25 RBI. Pedroia is hitting .337 in July with .903 OPS