The second Pocono race of 2017 could be a do or die proposition for several drivers’ chances of making the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
Considering the relative lack of passing and general excitement that tends to come with a Pocono race, it’s not often that the second visit each summer is circled on NASCAR fans’ calendars. But 2017 has been no ordinary season, and with time running out for drivers to punch their tickets to the playoffs, there’s simply much more on the line than usual.
After the Overton’s 400, there are only five more regular season races left, and any number of drivers who need a victory to make the playoffs. Dale Earnhardt Jr.? He won’t be racing for anything meaningful down the stretch of his final season unless he wins. Joey Logano? His early season penalty now looms incredibly large, enough so that he needs another win to make the postseason.
This year’s NASCAR Cup Series rookie class has been stout, but Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez and Ty Dillon are all winless and too far back to make the playoff field on points. In fact, none of the drivers we’ve just named should be racing for points, meaning all of them should be willing to gamble on any strategy necessary to take the checkered flag.
Next: Whose playoff chances were hurt the most by the Kasey Kahne Brickyard win?
Kasey Kahne proved last week at the Brickyard 400 that simply surviving and giving yourself a chance to win can be crucial. There’s little chance of a late race wreckfest at Pocono Raceway, but might the conditions be right for above average amounts of intrigue at the Tricky Triangle? Signs point to yes.
Forecast
Inclement weather is often a concern near the mountains in Pennsylvania, and the Overton’s 400 has been affected by it numerous times — including last year, when Chris Buescher took advantage of it to earn an unlikely victory. However, Weather Channel expects gorgeous weather for today’s race, with temperatures in the mid-70s and no chance of precipitation.
Stage lengths
Fittingly for the triangular track, Pocono is one place where the stage lengths are almost identical. Stage 1 will end at Lap 50, Stage 2 at Lap 100, and the third and final stage will be 60 laps to bring us to Lap 160 unless overtime is needed. Considering cars can make it about 35 laps on fuel, everyone should need to stop four times on Sunday, though there are still a number of pit strategy gambles possible later in the race most years.
Three things to watch
- Is Kyle Busch just cursed this year or what? Busch is fine on points to make the playoffs, but his winless streak has grown increasingly bizarre. The 18 team is clearly peaking, and Busch had the best car at Indy until he got tangled up with Martin Truex Jr. in a wreck that took out the top two contenders there. He’s starting on the pole at Pocono with Truex beside him. If he’s visibly better than the 78, that could mean something — but not necessarily a win, as we’ve seen.
- Is this a good place for a final charge by Junior? You’d think Dale Earnhardt Jr. could make a run at a crowd-pleasing victory here, considering he won this race three years ago. But Junior was awful during the first trip to Pocono, essentially ruining the engine of the 88 with a missed shift. He also didn’t look especially fast in qualifying and will start 22nd, so Junior Nation has a right to be a little concerned.
- What’s up with the Chevys at Pocono? Jamie McMurray did just fine in qualifying and starts 3rd. No other Chevrolet drivers will start in the top 10, though there’s a cluster of them between the 12th and 17th starting positions. Whether this is simply coincidence or something is affecting the whole camp is a valid question, so keep an eye on how Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Larson are running to see which it might be.
Predictions
We thoughts Busch was the best bet last week, and that looked smart until fate intervened. He should still be a factor today, but we’re steering clear after getting burned at the Brickyard. Instead, we’ll go with Ryan Blaney to pull off the season sweep, fresh off word that he’ll be joining Team Penske next year. That would be a huge victory for the 21 and elevate that car just outside the list of top contenders for this year’s championship.
For a dark horse pick, keep an eye on Daniel Suarez. The Toyotas look very fast here, and he quietly enters the Overton’s 400 off his best consecutive Cup Series finishes so far. Something would likely have to happen to a few of the drivers starting in front of him to have a real shot at Victory Lane, but if there’s a “right place, right time” candidate a la Kahne at Indy, we think it’s Suarez.