MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus August 1
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus column. The first edition for August 2017. We’re a daily fantasy baseball column arming you with the best MLB FanDuel lineups, using pitching as a focus.
With a full MLB schedule tonight, there are 15 games playing giving us 30 pitching options to pick through for the MLB FanDuel ‘Main’ slate. Making the night even more challenging, there are at least eight to ten great pitching options for MLB FanDuel plays.
If many of these pitchers were standing alone on another night, they’d be a lock. However, we’ll see a better ‘peanut butter’ spread of the ownership across the pitching options, giving us better odds to win if we pick the right hurler.
Digging through the metrics, only four of the 30 pitchers have a SIERA above 5.00, two have a fantastic SIERA below 3.00, and an incredible eleven pitchers have a SIERA below 4.00. So we have tons of juicy options, but few targets or hitting. Still, we’ve managed to narrow our search down to only six games to choose from, to maximize our value at pitcher, and target for offensive stacking.
PLAY FANDUEL: New users win first contest or get credited up to $120!
Here is the list of games we’re focused on tonight:
CIN Homer Bailey at PIT Jameson Taillon (7:05pm EDT)
WSH Max Scherzer at MIA Chris O’Grady (7:10pm EDT)
CLE Carlos Carrasco at BOS Chris Sale (7:10pm EDT)
STL Carlos Martínez at MIL Jimmy Nelson (7:40pm EDT)
SEA Erasmo Ramirez at TEX Nick Martínez (8:05pm EDT)
MIN Jose Berríos at SD Jhoulys Chacin (10:10pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play for tonight…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
One of our favorite MLB FanDuel pitchers all season is on the board tonight, Chris Sale ($11,400). Sale has a jaw-dropping 2.49 SIERA, clearly the best pitcher among all the hurlers tonight. You typically can’t go wrong with Chris in your lineup, but he’s expensive, and there’s some risk with the match up against the Indians.
The risk starts with the Indians SP, Carlos Carrasco ($9,500). Carrasco is another one of the top pitching options tonight, but he a similar issue Sale. Both pitchers have tough hitting match ups, Sale with the worst match-up.
Against left-handed pitchers away from home, the Indians are eighth in baseball with a 108 wRC+. That’s a high-value of run production in this scenario, and their strikeout rate is a low 16.3%. So while Sale is typically rock-solid, and still could be a good pick tonight, we need to consider other options, if there are any other great options on the board.
Appropriately salaried just above Sale, is Max Scherzer ($11,500). Max is averaging one point below Sale’s 52 MLB FanDuel point-per-game average, and has a better match-up tonight in Miami. Aside from a five-run game in Chase Field, and giving up four runs to the Braves in early July, Scherzer has been lights-out on the mound lately. He’s also averaging over ten strikeouts per game, in the month of July.
Tonight, Scherzer and the Nats play the Marlins, again, in Miami. Last night, the Marlins were shutout by Gio and the Nats re-emerging bullpen. Tonight, we could see something similar, with more strikeouts at the plate.
The Marlins are tied with the Brewers, who we’ll visit later, with a low 92 wRC+, seventh worst in baseball. Also, the Marlins have a 20% strikeout rate, a more attractive option than Sale’s match-up. Scherzer is your best hurler tonight, and is worth high salary.
MLB FanDuel Top Pitcher Fades
While I love Scherzer’s match-up tonight, and he’ll be hard to fade, you can’t ignore the match-up Jose Berríos ($9,200) has in San Diego, against the dreadful Padres lineup. Jose falls off the radar in the metrics, with a higher than average, for tonight, 4.22 SIERA. Berrios also has a 22% strikeout rate, lower than many of the top 15 pitchers on the board.
But, Jose also has a low 0.97 home runs per nine innings, and a decent 1.20 WHIP. Also, Berrios just pitched against the Astros, Yankees, and Dodgers in his last three starts. So it’s no surprise his stats dipped after facing some of the best hitting in baseball this season.
With the right match-ups, Berrios has performed very well this year, including an eleven strikeout and 66 MLB FanDuel point game against the Rockies in May. Tonight, Jose is facing a Padres team who has a 23.6% strikeout rate against RHP’s at home, in one of the worst hitting parks in baseball. This is one of the better Scherzer/Sale fade options of the night, but due to the match-up, Berrios may have high ownership.
With some erratic pitching over the last month, I’ve intentionally ignored Carlos Martínez ($9,100) lately. While skimming through the pitching metrics, I again avoided Martinez, but kept coming back to Carlos when I realized he has an ideal match-up.
Carlos has a very good 25.9% strikeout rate, one of the better K arms on the MLB FanDuel pitching list for the Main slate. Also, while Martinez has giving up a decent 1.13 home runs per nine innings, many of those bombs came against great lineups. With a 1.19 WHIP and 3.86 SIERA, Carlos is quietly one of the best pitchers on the mound tonight.
At first, facing the Brewers in Milwaukee doesn’t seem ideal. But in 12.1 innings, Carlos has eleven strikeouts against the Brewers, and that was when their offense was hot. Lately, the Brew-Crew’s bats have struggled, and they’re now tied with the Marlins for the seventh worst run production against RHP’s at home.
Also, with a 27% strikeout rate in this scenario, the Brewers are now the worst in baseball. So Martinez has a juicy match-up, with very high K potential, and may fly under the radar tonight.
MLB FanDuel: Top Value Play
With so many great pitchers tonight, and several great fade options, it was hard to find an MLB FanDuel pitching value pick I liked. Until I came across Jameson Taillon ($7,400).
Like Martinez, Taillon is another pitcher who had great stuff earlier in the season, but struggled lately, and is likely dropping off the radar of many MLB FanDuel players. After a poor nine run slugging against the Giants in San Francisco, Jameson’s ERA climbed to 4.03, and Taillon now has a high 1.45 WHIP.
But those stats can be deceiving. Taillon still has a 3.99 SIERA, eleventh best among all 30 pitchers tonight, and on a much cheaper salary than most pitchers. Jameson is only giving up 059 home runs per nine innings, and has a solid 22% strikeout rate. So while his ERA and WHIP have struggled lately, he’s still producing solid pitching for the Pirates.
Tonight, the Pirates host the Reds in what seems to be a pitcher-friendly park this season. The Reds lineup has performed well, at times, this season, but mostly in their own hitter-friendly park. Facing RHP’s away from home, the Reds have a mediocre 94 wRC+. Also, the Reds have an intriguing 20.7% strikeout rate, matching up well with Taillon’s 22% fanning rate.
So, on a night when many MLB FanDuel players will be chasing the high points from pitchers, at the potential cost for hitting, Taillon may give you only 40 MLB FanDuel points, but plenty of cash for heavy offensive stacking.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Seattle Mariners vs. Nick Martínez
The Mariners have some very reasonable offensive pricing tonight, such as Cano for only $3,100 at 2B. And while the Mariners have performed among the middle of the pack against RHP’s away from home, they have a juicy match up against Martinez in a hitter friendly park tonight.
Nick has a terrible 5.24 SIERA, third worst among all pitchers tonight. Martinez has a palpable 1.31 WHIP, and a low 6.3% walk rate, but his strikeout rate is a horrendous 12.6%, and Nick is giving up over two home runs per nine innings. Coupled with a 5.85 FIP, the worst of all SP’s tonight, we realize the big value we have with the Mariners lineup in Texas tonight.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Homer Bailey
Every time we see Bailey on the mound since emerging back into the Reds rotation, I’ve been targeting offensive stacking against him. Homer has a horrendous 8.37 ERA, terrible 2.01 WHIP, and low 12.1% strikeout rate. Bailey is giving up 1.62 home runs per nine innings, is walking batters a nearly a 9% rate, and has a 5.26 SIERA, the second worst starting on the bump tonight.
After a slow start to the season, the Pirates offense has been hot after the All-Star Break. While McCutchen has rightfully become more expensive, $4.3K, most of the lineup is still relatively cheap and will benefit from Andrew’s hot bat and Bailey’s poor pitching. There’s plenty of great value from the Pirates bats tonight. Stack ’em.
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!