MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus August 3
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the MLB FanDuel Daily Pitching Focus column for Thursday, August 3rd’s Main slate. We’re a daily fantasy baseball column arming you with the best MLB FanDuel lineups, using pitching as a focus.
With only 13 games on the MLB schedule today, and three games played during the early/afternoon hours, we’re down to only ten games for tonight’s MLB FanDuel Main slate, limiting our pitching options to 20.
Last night, our top option, Dallas Keuchel, didn’t play out well, only 12 points in a disappointing outing. Keuchel is coming off an injury and it’s clear he’ll need some time before he recovers. So far now, we’re going to put Dallas in our fade bucket, hoping he’ll return to early season form later in August. However, our Keuchel fade, Zack Godley, turned out to be a great play, landing 43 MLB FanDuel points on a reasonable salary.
Looking at the metrics for the Main slate tonight, there are clear top pitching options and several obvious fade options, making for an easy slate to focus on for pitchers. However, that presents a challenge for our lineups, given the ownership will likely be high for our favorable pitchers and offensively for our stacking targets. So while we have a few great picks you can’t avoid, there’s also some value buried in tonight’s pitching list.
We’ve narrowed our search down to only five games, providing a top pitcher pick, top-pitcher fade option, value play, and three stacking targets for your offensive lineups.
PLAY FANDUEL: New users win first contest or get credited up to $120!
Here is the list of games we’re focused on tonight:
CIN Sal Romano at PIT Chad Kuhl (7:0pm EDT)
DET Matt Boyd at BAL Chris Tillman (7:05pm EDT)
NYY Sonny Gray at CLE Corey Kluber (7:10pm EDT)
LAD Alex Wood at ATL Sean Newcomb (7:35pm EDT)
TB Blake Snell at HOU Collin McHugh (8:10pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play for tonight…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
With the Yankees slugging almost any pitcher this season, I typically like to avoid picking any pitcher facing the Bronx Bombers. But it’s hard to ignore what Corey Kluber ($11,100) brings to the table each start.
In 17 starts, Kluber is now 8-3 with a very good 0.99 WHIP and 2.90 ERA. Corey has a 2.42 xFIP and the only SIERA below 3.00, now 2.63. Kluber completes these eye-popping metrics with a tremendous 35.8% strikeout rate. Along with a low 6% walk rate, Kluber is definitely the best pitcher on the mound today.
While Corey is averaging an awesome 47.8 MLB FanDuel points-per-game this season, over the last eight games Kluber had 10+ strikeouts in seven of them, and is averaging well over 50 points, often landing at or near 60 points.
The Yankees have a 108 wRC+, the second best in baseball, against RHP’s away from New York. So this play has plenty of risk. But the Yankees do not typically face this type of talent on the mound in this scenario. Also, the Yanks have a 21.8% strikeout rate against RHP’s away from home, opening the door for another 10+ strikeout night. There’s plenty of affordable hitting available, so Kluber will be high-owned, but he should definitely be in your lineups.
MLB FanDuel Top Pitcher Fades
If someone like Kluber wasn’t in this slate, Alex Wood ($9,600) would be a clear top option. So if you’re looking to differentiate yourself from other players, especially for GPP, Wood is your guy.
The Dodgers left-hander, arguably now their best, is only giving up 0.46 home runs per nine innings, the lowest of all pitchers on the mound tonight. Like Corey, Alex also has an impressive 0.99 WHIP, with a 6.9% walk rate and low 2.52 ERA. Wood has the second-best SIERA tonight, 3.09, and an awesome 28.2% strikeout rate.
Since April, and after learning how hitter-friendly SunTrust park can be, I’ve avoided the Braves or their opponents in Atlanta. During a hot one tonight in SunTrust, we should expect some slugging, but mostly from the Dodgers. Also, the Braves haven’t produced well against LHP’s in Atlanta, now with an 83 wRC+, tied for seventh worst in baseball.
Alex isn’t a lock for ten strikeouts per game, like Kluber, but he’s likely to get 40 to 50 MLB FanDuel points on a $1.5K cheaper salary, allowing you to load up on pricey offensive stacking tonight.
MLB FanDuel: Top Value Play
It’s only his third start this season, since missing most of the year with an injury, but Collin McHugh ($8,200) appears to be quickly coming back into form. McHugh struggled in his first outing in Baltimore against the O’s, giving up four runs in 4.2 innings, letting six hitters on base. But Colin followed that up with a seven strikeout performance and quality start against the Tigers in Detroit, a 40 MLB FanDuel point result.
Finally pitching at home, in Houston, against the Rays, Collin has a solid match up tonight. We whiffed on the chance to tackle the Rays lineup with Keuchel last night, but tonight should be different.
The Rays are slightly better against RHP’s away from home, dipping their strikeout rate to 24.5%, and a solid 104 wRC+. But McHugh has a decent 4.16 SIERA, sixth best tonight, helped by a low 1.03 WHIP, the third best on the mound tonight.
McHugh has plenty of risk, still climbing back into mid-season form after taking so much time off from injury, and the Rays have pop in their bats, but we could land 40+ MLB FanDuel points with this pick on a cheap $8.2K salary.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Houston Astros vs. Blake Snell
Snell is having a rough season. Blake currently has a 5.35 SIERA, third worst on the mound tonight, with a 1.55 WHIP, terrible 13.2% walk rate, and is giving up 1.32 home runs per nine innings. Snell is fanning batters at a 19% rate, but he’s facing the best lineup in baseball tonight, the Astros.
Houston has struggled a bit with left-handed pitching in Minute Maid Park, 102 wRC+, only 12th best in baseball. But they’re still one of the more productive teams in this scenario and they’re facing one of the worst left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. Also, the Stros are only striking out around 16% of the time in this scenario. As always, they’ll be pricey, but stack them with a pitcher pick like Wood or McHugh.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Sal Romano
While stacking the Pirates hasn’t always played out well, like yesterday, they have been one of the more valuable stacks int he all-star break. Separately, I’ve also been target the Cincinnati Reds starting pitching, the worst starting rotation in baseball this year. Combining the two for this series, I’m going to continue to stack the Pirates tonight.
Romano is another dreadful starting pitcher in a terrible rotation. Sal has a good 22.6% strikeout rate, but follows that up with a terrible 16.7% walk rate. Romano is only giving up 1.25 home runs per five innings, but he has a 1.71 WHIP, one of the worst on the mound tonight. Romano should help revive the Pirate-value DFS train tonight.
Detroit Tigers vs. Chris Tillman
Why Tillman has a $6.1K salary is baffling to me. We should be getting salary back if you’re risking his pick in your lineup at pitcher. Tillman is giving up around two home runs per nine innings, after 14 starts. Chris has a low 15.9% strikeout rate and high 10.2% walk rate, along with a terrible 1.98 WHIP. In his last 9.2 innings of pitching, Tillman allowed 11 earned runs. With an 81 wRC+ against RHP’s away from Detroit, the Tigers are one of the worst in baseball. So they should be cheap tonight, but against Tillman, they’re likely to improve on those numbers.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck with your MLB FanDuel plays today, and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!