5 reasons the Cavaliers should take the Suns’ latest offer for Kyrie Irving

2. The Heat might not be that good next year

The pick most likely to change hands in a potential Cavs/Suns trade is Miami’s first-rounder next year, which came to Phoenix in the Goran Dragic trade two years ago. And while Miami played incredibly well over the last two-thirds of last season before paying top dollar to retain their core, it’s uncertain whether they can return to that level of play to begin next season. The Heat are somehow both young and old, proven and unproven. Their pick could land anywhere.

However, if Dion Waiters and James Johnson regress slightly after getting paid, Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson struggle to perform up to their new responsibility level, or Dragic starts to move past his prime, Miami could underperform.

This is also a team with a bad injury history, from Winslow to Richardson to Tyler Johnson. Their president and coach are both used to winning consistently, and they haven’t missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons in quite a while. Perhaps there could be a change of direction midseason if things go South. All I’m saying here is that there are a lot worse picks to bet on landing low in a trade than Miami’s. The Heat threw this pick into the trade with the hope that, three years later, they would have righted the ship post-LeBron. They’re on track to do that, but it’s not a given. Their pick could end up in the low lottery once again, as it did this year.

It would be an ironic twist for a Miami first-rounder to be the redeeming part of a Cavs trade after they failed to get enough back when James left for the Heat in 2010. But sometimes that is how these transactions end up: cruel but ultimately satisfying.