Arsenal won’t play in the Champions League for the first time since Arsene Wenger took over as manager. What will the 2017-18 season look like?
INS: Sead Kolašinac (free, Schalke 04), Alexandre Lacazette (£46.5 million, Lyon)
OUTS: Wojciech Szczensy (£10.4 million, Juventus), Yaya Sanogo (free, Toulouse)
THE STORY: For the first time in history under Arsene Wenger, Arsenal will not compete in the Champions League. Last season was filled with turmoil and unrest among supporters and staff alike. Even though Arsenal purchased Granit Xhaka and Shkodran Mustafi — their third and fifth most expensive players ever — in the previous summer window, they couldn’t continue their top four streak.
Arsenal are facing many questions going into the season. The short-term future of Wenger, however, is no longer one of them. The manager signed a new two-year contract at the end of May that will keep him at the club until 2019. “Wenger Out” will have to be put off for another few seasons.
Last season was mostly typical from Arsenal, sans the fourth-place finish. There were periods when they looked like the best club in the league. Unfortunately for supporters, those only lasted for a few months at the most. When the fixture list becomes congested and the injury bug rears its head, Arsenal are known to crumble. This past season was no exception.
The Gunners picked up their first win of the season in their third match, and then went unbeaten for 13 straight. However, red cards, injuries, fixture congestion and Francis Coquelin ensured the usual February-March collapse. From Jan. 31 to March 18, Arsenal lost four of five matches, including defeats to Watford and West Brom. This, combined with the familiar feeling of crashing out of the Champions League in the round of 16, put Wenger, who remained elusive on the topic of a potential contract extension, under more pressure than he’s seen since he arrived in north London 20 years ago.
Late in the season, the boss made a surprising formation switch. Wenger began to use a back three, displaying the sort of flexibility he has long been derided for lacking. For the most part, the change worked. Arsenal won nine of their last 10 matches, including a thrilling FA Cup final win over Chelsea, but it was too little too late in the league, as the Gunners fell to fifth, a point behind fourth-place Liverpool. The big question for this season is whether or not Wenger will stick with the back three.
The early signs indicate he will. Wenger has already used the formation in preseason, and the first signing of the summer, Sead Kolasinac, is well suited to playing as a wing-back. Don’t expect Wenger to completely abandon a back four, however. Arsenal have the players to perform in both formations, depending on the opposition, which versatility will give them an edge some of their rivals lack.
But perhaps the biggest question of the summer remains to be answered. The way the club handle the delicate situation involving Alexis Sanchez will go a long way in determining expectations. Sanchez has made it known he wants to play in the Champions League, and has been the subject of interest from several clubs, but is still under contract for another year. The Gunners could simply reject all transfer offers for their star player and let him play out his contract, but that would almost guarantee he leaves for free next season.
Sanchez will be 29 years old in December, which makes the decision to sell or keep him even more difficult. Should they hold onto him, the Gunners would be getting one of the few remaining prime years he has left (and even if his heart’s set on a move away, he will likely be Arsenal’s best player again next season). That, coupled with the prospect of the Chilean teaming up with new club-record signing Alexandre Lacazette, might be enough to convince the club to ignore the financial benefits of a sale.
The two could be lethal in combination with the club’s other star attacker, Mesut Ozil, who’s got contract questions of his own still to answer. Ozil, however, has said he wants to continue with the club beyond this season (his contract runs out at the same time as Sanchez’s), and seems more likely to stick around. That’s good news. Divisive though he is, the playmaker is absolutely key to Arsenal’s attacking success.
Speaking of which, what will constitute success for Arsenal next season? At the very least, the club will have to finish in the top four to keep supporters happy, though most fans will probably be hoping for a title challenge, especially if Sanchez stays. And the Lacazette purchase was a clear sign of intent as the club try to get back into the Champions League at the first opportunity.
That won’t be easy, especially with sixth-place Manchester United expected to improve as well, but the Gunners weren’t far off last season. The 75 points they accumulated would have seen them finish in the top four in all but three of the past 13 seasons, and if Sanchez stays, they’ll have stronger squad in 2017-18 (even more so if they add rumored target Thomas Lemar from Monaco).
But this is Arsenal, where nothing has really changed in a decade, and so as much as anything this season will be interesting for what it tells us about Wenger, and how long he will persevere in the face of an increasingly disgruntled fanbase. Two very good teams will miss out on the top four again this season. If Arsenal are one of them for the second season in a row, there might finally be something new to say.
KEY PLAYERS: Sanchez led the club in goals and assists last season. His contributions are vital to the attack. His energy on the pitch and willingness to try the audacious is something the Gunners severely lack at times. However, much of the focus will be on new man Lacazette and his attacking partner Ozil.
Arsenal haven’t had an elite center forward since the days of Robin van Persie. While Olivier Giroud and Danny Welbeck fill important roles in the squad, neither has the overall talent and ability of Lacazette. Giroud looked out of place in the new 3-4-2-1 formation, and Welbeck is far too injury prone to be counted on consistently. Lacazette offers the mobility of Welbeck and the hold-up play of Giroud. Supporters will rightly expect over 20 goals in all competitions from the new man.
Ozil, on the other hand, will be looking to bounce back from a relatively quiet season. The German scored eight goals and produced nine assists, but his overall play and consistency left much to be desired. He plays his best soccer when he has a mobile forward ahead of him. Lacazette should help the play-maker return to form.
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THE MANAGER: This season could be defining for Wenger. While there’s no doubting his past success in the Premier League, the pressure has ratcheted up the past few years, and reached a new peak last season.
The familiar pattern of an Arsenal season — great start, bad middle, Champions League exit, strong finish — is becoming harder and harder for fans to stomach, even with the recent FA Cup success.
The biggest concern is that despite evidence of a newfound flexibility — for years, the biggest complaint against Wenger was his stubbornness, but more tactical experimentation and a new, big-spending approach in the transfer market have mostly put that criticism to rest — despite all that, nothing has really changed.
The common thread, of course, is Wenger. And it feels increasingly like the only thing that could get a majority of fans definitively back on his side is the Premier League title. There’s enough talent in the squad to do it, and yet it’s almost impossible to imagine it happening.
Another season outside the top four, in contrast, and it will be hard to imagine Wenger sticking around for longer than the duration of his current contract. Then again, we’ve said that before.
BEST CASE: Arsenal flourish with a back three, Sanchez stays and they challenge for the title deep into the season.
WORST CASE: Wenger’s tactical changes have no effect, key players become increasingly frustrated and the club finish outside the top four for the second consecutive year.