Chris Hughton’s Brighton begin their first ever Premier League season among the favorites to get relegated. What can we expect from the Seagulls?
INS: Matthew Ryan (£6 million, Valencia), Markus Suttner (£4.5 million, FC Ingolstadt), Pascal Gross (£3 million, FC Ingolstadt), Mathias Normann (undisclosed, FK Bodo/Glimt), Izzy Brown (loan, Chelsea)
OUTS: David Stockdale (free transfer, Birmingham), Chris O’Grady (free transfer, Chesterfield), Christian Walton (loan, Wigan), Elvis Manu (free transfer, Genclerbirligi)
THE STORY: Brighton were promoted to the Premier League this past spring for the first time in club history, and return to the top flight in 2017-18 for the first time in 34 years. They’ll spend the next nine months looking to avoid the drop.
But before the sobering reality of a Premier League relegation battle takes hold, it’s worth emphasizing the size of the club’s achievement last season. The Seagulls came close to relegation from the Football League in 1997 and 1998, at the same time a boardroom takeover saved them from liquidation.
Following two consecutive promotions, the team returned to the second tier of English soccer in 2002, and after narrowly missing out on promotion from the Championship in three of the past four seasons, they finally made it up in 2016-17, finishing second to Newcastle after leading the league heading into the final day.
The current side isn’t loaded with household names, but manager Chris Hughton, a former Ireland full-back who played for Tottenham and West Ham, has cultivated a strong sense of togetherness among his players since arriving in December of 2014, with the club languishing in 21st place in the Championship.
The turnaround since Hughton’s arrival has been dramatic, but the consistency and unity that served his side so well in the grueling, 46-game Championship season won’t cut it in the Premier League without the right level of quality.
Brighton have brought in five players since promotion: keeper Mathew Ryan, midfielders Pascal Gross and Mathias Normann, left-back Markus Suttner and 20-year-old Chelsea striker Izzy Brown. That Ryan, who will replace Birmingham-bound David Stockdale, is the club’s most expensive signing at £6 million is as good an indication as any of the size of the task facing Brighton to avoid relegation.
Hughton typically lined his side up in a 4-4-2 last season, and is unlikely to change that approach drastically on his return to the Premier League. Burnley showed last season the formation can yield success for a newly promoted team, but it’s unlikely the Seagulls will take as out-and-out a defensive approach as Sean Dyche’s side.
Brighton will almost certainly struggle this season. This is a squad, after all, with almost no Premier League experience, and whose most expensive player is a keeper. But Brighton don’t need to be good. They merely need to be less bad than three other teams.
Huddersfield, Burnley, Swansea, Watford, Newcastle, Bournemouth and even West Ham and Crystal Palace could all find themselves in the thick of the relegation battle in 2017-18. On paper, Brighton are weaker than all of those sides but Huddersfield.
But after such a positive few seasons since Hughton’s arrival, and some intelligent if not exactly flashy buys, they’re unlikely to capitulate like Sunderland or Aston Villa in recent years. An opening day clash with Manchester City notwithstanding, the Seagulls have a very manageable start with matches against Leicester, Watford, West Brom, Bournemouth and Newcastle. That run could prove crucial as they adapt to the pressures of the Premier League.
KEY PLAYERS: Glenn Murray and Anthony Knockaert were Brighton’s outstanding attacking players in the Championship last season. Murray scored 23 goals in 45 appearances, while Knockaert added 15 from out wide.
The question of whether they can recreate something approaching that form against Premier League defenses could well define the Seagulls’ season. As Middlesbrough reminded us all last year, a relegation candidate with no reliable source of goals is going to struggle, and likely go down.
The only attacking addition so far has been the loan signing of Izzy Brown from Chelsea. Brown’s an excellent prospect, but has no Premier League experience and at 20 years old is unlikely to be the reliable striker Brighton will need to avoid the drop.
That means, barring another signing before the end of the month, the bulk of the goalscoring responsibility will fall to Murray, who has had previous stints in the top flight with Crystal Palace and Bournemouth. He never really established himself at either club, and will turn 34 in September, but his seven goals in 17 appearances for the Eagles in 2014-15 are cause for cautious optimism.
The most intriguing arrival is Pascal Gross, a number 10 from German side Ingolstadt, who’s likely to play a key role in midfield and attack, and will also be expected to provide quality from set pieces. Where exactly he fits into Hughton’s 4-4-2 remains to be seen, and his arrival could lead to a slight shift in shape, but he’ll have a big role to play either way.
The rest of the signings have been more defensive-minded. David Stockdale was excellent last season, but Mathew Ryan projects to be a strong replacement, while Markus Suttner will help shore up the defense at left-back.
The 30-year-old Suttner has quality in the final third, and adds experience, but he joins an aging group of full-backs that includes 36-year-old captain Bruno, 29-year-old Gaetan Bong and 33-year-old Leroy Rosenior and could struggle against top flight wingers.
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MANAGER: Chris Hughton takes his third shot at the Premier League as a manager after previous stints at Newcastle and Norwich. He was unfortunate to be sacked at the former, but things unraveled for him after a promising first season at Carrow Road, and the jury is still very much out on whether he can make it as a manager at this level.
His current tenure with Brighton has been his longest at any club, and that familiarity should help as he returns to the Premier League spotlight. He’s earned the trust of the board, and is hugely popular with the fans, which should give him a good amount of leeway if things get off to a bad start.
But there comes a time in every relegation battle when sacking the manager seems like the best way to force a turnaround, and when push comes to shove, there’s no reason to think Hughton will be immune to such treatment.
Hughton’s preferred formation is unlikely to change from what we saw last season — a 4-4-2 or a 4-4-1-1. The question is how adventurous he’ll be in that formation. Brighton scored the fourth most goals in the Championship last season, and conceded the joint fewest.
The Seagulls certainly aren’t a defensive team in the way two of last season’s promoted sides, Burnley and Middlesbrough, were, but don’t expect Brighton to play the sort of expansive soccer we have saw from newly-promoted Bournemouth two seasons ago, or Swansea before that.
Given the lack of talent at Hughton’s disposal, Brighton’s season will depend on his ability to maintain the positive energy of last season in the face of some inevitable disappointing results, and to strike the right balance between defense and attack. In a league filled with stubborn tacticians, Hughton’s philosophical flexibility could be key.
BEST CASE: The Seagulls get just enough points to avoid relegation.
WORST CASE: A slow start that leads to a last-place finish by season’s end.