MLB FanDuel: Daily Pitching Focus August 7
By Matt Rogers
Welcome to the MLB FanDuel Daily Pitching Focus column, for Monday, August 8th. We’re a daily fantasy baseball column arming you with the best MLB FanDuel lineups, using pitching as a focus.
With 16 teams taking the day off this Monday, there are only seven games on the MLB schedule today, with all games timed for the ‘Main’ MLB FanDuel slate. That gives us only 14 pitchers to pick through for our MLB FanDuel lineups tonight.
For tonight’s slate, the first thing we notice is the obvious top-tier of options, which will likely make ownership percentage an issue. However, there are several good fade options, plenty of value at pitcher, and we know there is plenty of offensive stacking to target.
Half, or seven, of our starting pitchers have a K-rate above 20%, which means they have good potential for higher points from five-plus strikeouts. Also, most of these pitchers have a low walk rate, low WHIP, and low home runs per nine innings, further strengthening the pitching pick. However, a couple of these guys give up too many home runs, opening the door for some awesome stacking picks.
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We’ve narrowed our list of interested games down to only five. Here is the list of games we’re focused on tonight:
MIA Chris O’Grady at WSH Max Scherzer (7:05pm EDT)
DET Jordan Zimmermann at PIT Trevor Williams (7:05pm EDT)
MIL Brent Suter at MIN Ervin Santana (8:10pm EDT)
STL Carlos Martínez at KC Ian Kennedy (8:15pm EDT)
CHC Jake Arrieta at SF Matt Moore (10:08pm EDT)
We’ll start with the top pitching play for tonight…
Top MLB FanDuel Pitching Play
With Max Scherzer ($11,100) at the top of the pitching list, and a big drop-off in MLB FanDuel point return per $1,000 from Max to Jake Arrieta ($9,800), it’s hard to avoid Scherzer tonight. Max has a 2.75 SIERA. No other pitcher is even below 3.50 on the mound tonight. Scherzer’s 0.84 WHIP is now the best in baseball, and earlier in the season he was flirting with a historic WHIP, still not out of reach.
Also, with a 35.7% strikeout rate, you’re likely getting at least ten, and often more, strikeouts from Max. In 22 starts this season, including a one-inning shutdown last week, Scherzer has eleven games with 10+ K’s. Max missed the ten-K mark in four of his first five games, so his average rapidly increased as the season continued.
The Nats are hosting the Marlins in Washington, D.C. tonight. Before you look at the batter vs. pitcher statistics against the Marlins, considering voiding them or throwing them out. BvP results are relative, and Max is having a near Cy Young Award type of season. The last time Scherzer pitched a full game against the Marlins, was in late June in Miami. Max had eleven strikeouts and only allowed three people on base through eight innings, getting the Q and 61 MLB FanDuel points.
There is some big risk here, though. Max started against the Marlins last week, and after one inning of shutout pitching and hitting his first career home run in the bottom of the first inning, Schzer pulled himself out of the game with back spasms, causing him to toss a warm up pitch well behind the left-handed hitter’s batter box.
I’m assuming the Nationals are comfortable with Max’s health, given they’re starting him with a tremendous lead in the NL East, and plenty of time before the playoffs. But if you’re playing the best pitcher on tonight’s slate in your lineups, make sure you keep an eye on how Max’s warm ups go before the game. There’s a chance he could get pulled at the last-minute.
MLB FanDuel Top Pitcher Fades
Arrieta has pitched well, and is engaged in a great match up against a terrible Giants team in San Francisco. But Jake’s average return of only high-30 MLB FanDuel points over the last two months is underwhelming for a $9.8K price. So I’m fading Arrieta tonight.
Santana ($9,300) has a decent match up against a Brewers club who’s struggled with strikeouts over the last two years. But Ervin has a lower 19.2% strikeout rate, higher 8.2% walk rate, and is giving up almost 1.5 home runs per nine innings. We have better options than buying all of this risk for $9,300.
Carlos Martínez ($8,900) is cheaper, and has a 3.89 SIERA. Carlos and Max are the only two starting pitchers on the mound tonight with a SIERA below 4.00. While Martinez has struggled with earned runs over the last two games, eight in eleven innings, he’s still fanning batters at a high 26% rate.
The biggest problem we have with Martinez is his high 9.3% walk rate. That’s a problem that hurt him in his last outing, against the Brewers in Milwaukee, walking five batters. But against RHP’s in Kansas City, the Royals have a 74 wRC+, third worst in baseball, and a low 6.6% walk rate, second worst in baseball. So this is an ideal match up for Carlos to bounce back, and with a cheaper price.
MLB FanDuel: Top Value Play
With Chacin ($8,400) and Ramirez ($7,900) both pitching surprisingly well lately, there’s plenty of value on the board below Martinez. Bundy ($7,600) has also been strong in two of his last three outings, and could be a cheap way to get 40 MLB FanDuel points leaving plenty of pricey stacking options on the table.
While all over those pitchers have great ROI upside, my favorite value pick of the night is Brent Suter ($7,300). Early in the season, Suter was coming out of the pen, but on July 3rd, Brent started on the bump for the Brewers and pitched an eight-strikeout gem to get the win, quality start, and gave up no earned runs over six innings. Suter piled up 52 MLB FanDuel points in that one.
Five more starts later, Brent now has a 4.00 SIERA, the third best starting on the mound tonight. A 21.3% strikeout rate may be uninspiring, but it’s the fifth highest among all the starters and at a much cheaper salary than most. Suter also has the lowest walk rate, 5.8%, and is only giving up 0.72 home runs per nine innings, also the best among all the starting pitchers scheduled tonight.
While the Twins have a decent 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at home, they’re striking out more than 20% of the time. And while the Twins had a great start to the season, their offense is now sputtering, struggling to put up many runs in what seemed liked a hitters park earlier in the year. Suter has a great opportunity to pile up 40 to 50 MLB FanDuel points on a very cheap salary, and likely under the average MLB FanDuel player’s radar tonight.
Pitching Targets / MLB FanDuel Offensive Stacks
Chicago Cubs vs. Matt Moore
The Cubs bats are heating up as we approach playoff time. That’s great for the playoff race, but also great for our MLB FanDuel lineups. The Cubs were one of the top sets of bats last year, but disappointed into the All Star break.
Tonight, the Cubbies are facing a pitcher I’ve been target for offensive stacks all season. Moore now has a 4.89 SIERA, due mostly to a low 18.5% strikeout rate, high 8.7% walk rate, and terrible 1.60 WHIP. Matt has kept home runs down to only 1.39 per nine innings, but has a high 5.80 ERA, so we know there’s plenty of offense produced from his arm. Stack the cubs tonight, they’re still affordable.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jordan Zimmermann
Like the Cubs, the Pirates bats have been hot as well lately. And with Zimmermann struggling all season, this is another affordable stacking opportunity. While Moore isn’t have a great year, Jordan is having one of his worst. Zimmermann now has a 5.03 SIERA, with a low 15.9% strikeout rate and 1.47 WHIP.
Jordan hasn’t walked many hitters, a respectable 6.5% rate, but he’s giving up 1.73 home runs per nine innings, second worst staring on the hill tonight. So while you’re not going to see many walks from Zim, expect the Pirates bats to stay hot.
Washington Nationals vs. Chris O’Grady
The Nats are expensive, but against O’Grady they’re worth paying the steep price. Chris now has a 21.4% strikeout rate, which is respectable, but that’s where the goodness ends. O’Grady has a terrible 12.4% walk rate, easily the highest starting on the mound tonight.
O’Grady is giving up nearly 1.5 home runs per nine innings, collectively leading to a terrible 5.40 ERA and the highest SIERA on the board, 5.13. The Washington bats have been hot all season in Nats Park, and tonight that continues.
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