Analyzing the relegation battle

A new Premier League season is upon us, and with that a new relegation battle. But who are the favorites to get relegated in 2017-18?

The new Premier League season is almost here, and with it a new relegation battle. Last year saw Sunderland finally fail in their annual escape from the drop. With the Black Cats went Hull and Middlesbrough. So who will take their places in the relegation zone this season?

Huddersfield

Huddersfield were last year’s surprise team in the Championship, and will make their first ever appearance in the Premier League in 2017-18. Even if the season ends in relegation, it won’t have been a complete failure for a club that was playing in League One as recently as 2012.

The biggest problem for Huddersfield will be putting the ball in the back of the net. The Terriers weren’t exactly a lethal attacking side in the Championship last season — they finished fifth despite a negative goal difference — and while their buys this summer have attempted to address the problem, they don’t have the money to compete for proven stars.

The Terriers bought Tom Ince and Steve Mounie, both attackers, and signed Aaron Mooy, last seasons Player of the Year, on a permanent deal. Manager David Wagner is known for finding value in the transfer market, but he’s going to have to rely on a lot of players with no Premier League experience making the step up.

If Huddersfield are to be successful, it will likely owe much to Wagner’s tactics. The German-American manager is good friends with Jurgen Klopp, and employs a similar, high-intensity pressing system. There’s plenty of evidence, including the Terriers’ 2016-17 season, the style can compensate for a perceived lack of individual quality, but the talent gap might be too big to overcome.

Huddersfield are in for a tough season, but they should be a lot of fun to watch, and their fans will surely enjoy the ride, even if it does end with them right back in the Championship.

Swansea

Swansea barely fought off the drop last year, finishing 15th and only seven points ahead of Hull. Paul Clement did an excellent job after taking over from Bob Bradley at the turn of the year, but with his best player, Gylfi Sigurdsson, heavily linked with a move away from the club, his job might be about to get a lot harder.

Sigurdsson has been the shining light for Swansea for several seasons, and he played a huge role in ensuring his club’s survival last season. He totaled nine goals and 13 assists last season, meaning he contributed directly to 22 of Swansea’s 45 goals.

Fernando Llorente, who scored 15 times last term, should ensure the attack still has a dangerous focal point, but the quality of the service the Spaniard receives will drop off significantly if Sigurdsson goes.

If the Swans can keep Sigurdsson, they don’t look on paper to be one of the worst three teams in the division, but they’re not loaded with talent, and their over-reliance on a few players could cost them.

Clement improved the Welsh club’s defense somewhat after his arrival in January, but they conceded 70 goals in the league last season, and haven’t added any defenders so far this summer. Whether Sigurdsson stays or not, the Swans must get better at the back if they’re to steer clear of the relegation battle.

Burnley

Burnley were among the favorites to go down last season, but stayed relatively clear of the relegation battle on the strength of their excellent home form. They collected 33 points at Turf Moor, the ninth-best home record in the league.

Sean Dyche’s approach, which is unlikely to change this season, was based on a strong defense. The Clarets conceded 55 goals last season, good for 11th in the division. But they lost Michael Keane to Everton this summer, and have yet to replace him.

While Burnley’s defense impressed, their attack was one of the worst in the Premier League, only scoring more goals than Sunderland, Hull and Middlesbrough, and we know how the season ended for them. The additions of Jonathan Walters, Jack Cork and Phil Bardsley don’t look like enough to turn them into even an average attacking side.

Finally, the Clarets away record was awful. They didn’t win their first match on the road until April, and picked up seven points on their travels all season. It’s unlikely they’ll be able to survive if they can’t increase that total in 2016-17.

Brighton

Brighton led the Championship for most of last season, and fell to second place on the final day with promotion already secured. They’re likely to find life in the Premier League a lot more difficult, however.

Like most newly-promoted teams, the Seagulls biggest concern should be whether their players are good enough to make the step up to the Premier League. Glen Murray and Anthony Knockaert were the attacking stars last year, but neither impressed during brief stints in the top flight in the past.

Manager Chris Hughton will be hoping the arrival of Isaiah Brown on loan from Chelsea will bolster the attack, but like Wagner at Huddersfield, he’s dependent on unproven players adapting quickly to life at a much higher level.

With the exception of keeper David Stockdale — who’s been replaced by Australia’s Mathew Ryan — the squad from last season remains intact. If they can build on the momentum they gathered last season, good things could happen, but looking at the players in the squad, it’s hard to imagine Brighton won’t be near the bottom of the table.

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The worst of the rest

Watford, despite never really being under serious threat of going down, finished 17th last season. The 40 goals they scored were better than only four other teams, three of which were relegated and the other of which finished one spot ahead of them in 16th. The defense wasn’t great either, allowing 68 goals, the fourth worst mark in the league.

As has become the norm for the Hornets, they now have a new manager, their third in three Premier League seasons, Marco Silva. The approach has worked for Watford so far, but has led to a strangely assembled squad.

And they’ve been busy this summer as well, bringing in Daniel Bachmann, Kiko, Will Hughes and Tom Cleverly. They also added Nathaniel Chalobah on loan from Chelsea. If Cleverly and Hughes can form a solid partnership in the center of the midfield, and Silva can implement his ideas quickly, there’s every reason to believe Watford can stay a float. Those are big ifs, though.

Crystal Palace were a bit of an oddity last season. They have the talent of mid-table, if not top-half, side, but got off to horrible start under Alan Pardew, who was fired in December. In came Sam Allardyce to save the day, and stave off relegation.

After Allardyce retired at the end of the season, Palace brought in their third manager in two seasons, Frank de Boer. De Boer comes with a relatively high pedigree despite a difficult spell at Inter Milan in 2016.

The additions of Jairo Riedewald and Ruben Loftus-Cheek, the former on a permanent basis and latter on loan, signal de Boer’s desire to start building something long-term at Palace. That’s been a welcome sight for fans of a club that doesn’t need a serious overhaul, but rather a sense of stability.

On paper, Palace should finish well above the drop zone, but that’s been true for the past few seasons, and they always seem to find themselves down there, high-profile new manager or not.

Newcastle, much like Palace, seem to have the quality to finish comfortably mid-table. With a squad full of players with top flight experience, and Rafa Benitez in charge, most assume the Magpies will be safe.

Newcastle haven’t made many signings of note this summer, but the few that they have made are smart ones, with the permanent signing of Christian Atsu particularly intriguing. But it’s never easy to make the jump from Championship to Premier League, and there will be a period of adjustment even for those players who have played in the top flight before.

Newcastle shouldn’t be in the relegation battle, but that was also the case the last two times they got relegated. It’s never as easy as it looks.